Reorientation Resources: Stochastic Terrorism and Confirmation Bias

The year 2024 will require a reorientation to new realities, largely driven by the acceleration of disruptive technologies grinding against the inertia of stale institutions that would rather we snack on the comfort food of the past than the buffet of the future. In this post, the reorientation required is an understanding of the broad political and societal impact of stochastic terrorism and confirmation bias.

What is Stochastic Terrorism? 

• Stochastic terrorism is a concept that refers to the public demonization of a person or group resulting in the incitement of a violent act, which is statistically probable but whose specifics cannot be predicted.
• The term “stochastic” refers to the randomness of the outcome, meaning that while the violent act is predictable as a statistical phenomenon, the specific time and place of any individual act cannot be forecast.
• This form of terrorism is often associated with the use of mass communication to incite individuals who are predisposed to engage in such acts without direct lines of command or explicit orders. 
• The process involves inflammatory speech and rhetoric that targets specific groups or individuals, which may inspire some listeners or followers to take violent action.
• Because the instigator of the speech does not directly command anyone to commit acts of violence, they maintain a plausible deniability in the legal sense, even though the violent outcomes are a foreseeable result of their inflammatory rhetoric.
• This concept has become increasingly relevant in the digital age when social media and other forms of digital communication amplify the reach and impact of incendiary speech.
• It raises significant challenges for law enforcement and security professionals in terms of prevention and response, as the indirect nature of the incitement makes it difficult to predict and prevent specific acts.
• Understanding and addressing stochastic terrorism requires a nuanced approach that includes monitoring hate speech and incendiary rhetoric, improving the public’s media literacy, and fostering a societal culture that discourages divisive and inflammatory discourse.

Stochastic Terrorism – The Cruelty is the Point: Terror and the Secondary Trauma of Social Media