This post provides a high level overview of nuclear energy issues we recommend as part of the baseline fluency of executives across all industries. It includes an overview of issues holding nuclear power back, big innovations being brought to market and recommendations that can help inform strategic planning.

History

Using the power of atoms to produce electricity was first conceptualized by Nels Bohr and Encrico Fermi in 1939 at a conference on theoretical physics in Washington DC. Fermi would later oversee the construction of the first nuclear reactor in 1942. After the war the promise of nuclear power was so enticing that the US government reorganized to optimize the move to nuclear power, including changes to both the executive branch and the legislative branch.  Significant focus and funding resulted in creation of the first commercial electricity-generating power plant in Shippingport, Pennsylvania in 1957. This type of reactor, called a light-water reactor, was the best design engineers could think of at the time. Heat from radiation made steam from water which turned turbines that produced electricity.

Nuclear Power Today

Today there are 440 nuclear reactors operating in 31 countries. More than half of these were built between 1970 and 1985. In the US, 93 plants are operating. They generate 20% of the electricity produced in the US. US powerplant production has stagnated largely due to public misperceptions about nuclear safety. Those misperceptions allow for poor leadership by politicians and regulators. 

The Incidents

Light water reactors have many moving parts and have many modes of failure. Three have had major accidents. Three Mile Island Pennsylvania (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011).  Each of these were serious and resulted in lessons learned. Each was also used by those opposed by nuclear power to over hype the threat of incidents. The most serious of all the incidents was Chernobyl, a horrifying disaster attributed to poor reactor design and an unauthorized experiment. This worst of all disasters resulted in 1600 square miles of land being made uninhabitable and may have caused up to 200 deaths.  

Nuclear Safety and Environmental Impact Today

Even with the horrors of Chernobyl, the deaths due to nuclear power are far less than the deaths due to other energy sources, especially fossil fuels and hydroelectric power. It is, statistically, the safest form of energy produced. Reactors reduce dependence on hostile nations, a lesson being learned the hard way by many today. Experience has shown that nuclear power is also far better for the environment. For example, when compared to solar energy, nuclear power takes less material, uses less land, produces less carbon and less waste.

I used to think solar was the best way to make electricity, but I was wrong. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/GLR2jcyGbS

— Brian Gitt (@BrianGitt) June 16, 2022

Improving Reactors

Light water reactors like those in service today are safe and efficient, but expensive and take years to build and bring online. The discovery of cheap domestic shale gas and subsidies for wind and solar power have made the economics of nuclear reactor construction using old approaches less favorable. However, new designs which improve on the old light water reactors are available that are even safer and more efficient as well as more economical. Some innovations of note include:

Nuscale produces a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR). This is a smaller version of the light water reactor in traditional powerplants.  Nuscale is a US company but first clients of this new technology are European nations largely because they cannot get a final authorization from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Romania is scheduled to have

Oklo Power builds sodium cooled reactors which are fueled by the waste of other reactors. The are much smaller than traditional reactors so do not require the big constructions budgets old style reactors do. Their application for approval to operate was denied by the NRC in Jan 2022, with the only reason why being a citation that more info was needed.

Seaborg is a Copenhagen based firm which has developed a compact molten salt reactor on a power barge that can be moved to anywhere it is needed. It also produces clean water. It is on track to begin operation in 2026.

Terrapower is backed by Bill Gates. They have designed new reactors of a variety of types including two that use molten salts. These reactors are smaller, modular and designed to replace existing coal plants when they retire.

Marvel is a project underway at Idaho National Labs that produces a small microreactor that is liquid metal cooled.

The above rely on known science and engineering around atomic fission, the periodic breakdown of atoms. There is other promising research into fusion, the power that generates the energy of the Sun or Fusion bombs. This is also known science but the engineering problems around nuclear fusion for energy production have never been solved and, although there are companies pursuing this, we do not see any with likely breakthroughs on the horizon.

Shifting Sentiment

A June 2022 survey conducted by Bisconti Research shows growing public support of nuclear energy and for the building of additional nuclear power plants in the US.

Response to question: Overall, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity in the United States? (%)

Concluding Considerations

With changes to public sentiment in the US and the jolting reality of the Russian war against Ukraine helping shake up EU intransigence towards nuclear energy it is reasonable to assume more nuclear reactors will be built. This may include long lead time projects like traditional light water reactors but the innovations like those outlined above hold great promise for faster time to market with far less expense, assuming regulators agree to allow their use.

It is hard to predict whether or not nations will embark on more aggressive nuclear power building plans, but this is a definite potential that should inform scenario planning, especially for businesses in the energy sector. With leadership the world may be in for an incredible abundance of nuclear provided electricity resulting in very economical, stable, safe power and increasingly moving us all to a world of less pollution and more innovation across all industries. So corporate scenario planning should at least consider this as a potential future.

Businesses may want to evaluate what lower electricity costs could do for their future. If a logical case can be built that helps underscore the importance of lower power costs, this can be used to help convince others of the importance of leadership in this domain. For example, lower electricity costs can make vertical farming more economical, meaning more food can be produced closer to populations, with less dependence on fertilizer and pesticides. Lower energy costs can also enable more efficient chemical production including new ways to generate fertilizers for those crops that must be grown in rows (like wheat and corn). Lower energy costs can help continue to drive down the cost of compute and the cost of operating datacenters. At some point energy cost reduction can make desalination economical, helping reduce the impact of drought.

At this point we recommend executives across all industries at least be fluent in the basics of nuclear energy. We will do our part to highlight developments in the field.

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