We are in the midst of a Covid, RSV, and flu virus surge that both media and governmental outlets have not and are no doing any public messaging about (in some regions, the current surge matches the metrics of the first Omnicron surge in 2021).  In this post, we take a look at various perspespectives on science and public health policy communication as one of the fundamental failings of both the recent pandemic experience and the ongoing climate crisis.

In 2024, we will explore this topics as function of our follow on research from OODA con 2023 ont he future of trust and our on going coverage and analysis of Global Health Security.

Science and Public Health Policy and Disaster Communications

Strengthening Resilience in 21st Century Crisis Communications

In Strengthening Resilience in 21st Century Crisis Communications, authors Alexa Wehsener and Sylvia Mishra draw on insight from a group of high-level policymakers, diplomats, and technical experts in attendance at our London workshop earlier this year to examine the vulnerabilities of existing crisis communications channels and offer possible solutions.

SUMMARY

On May 3 and 4, 2023, the Institute for Security and Technology (IST) hosted a workshop in London examining vulnerabilities of existing communications channels relied on by leaders of states with nuclear weapons in times of crises. Participants included a diverse group of high-level policymakers, scholars, diplomats, and technical experts from across the world, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, India, Pakistan, China, and Russia as well as relevant multilateral organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), amongst others. Sponsored by the German Federal Foreign Office and Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, IST conducted the workshop under the Chatham House Rule. As a result, this document does not identify or attribute elements of this summary to specific individuals or their institutional affiliations.

The London workshop had two goals. First, to provide a forum for open, frank discussions without judgment, creating an opportunity for participants to question standing orthodoxy and voice ground-breaking, perhaps non-traditional ideas. Second, to ideate tangible avenues of conversation that provide states with nuclear weapons creative options for advancing risk reduction. In order to achieve these goals, the workshop focused on generating a more practical understanding of existing communications approaches and failure modes, as well as political and technical risks and opportunities.

We derived 4 significant takeaways from this engagement:

1. Nuclear crisis communications are of growing importance in the 21st century. Participants agreed that existing channels for crisis communication are not sufficient for 21st century political and technical dynamics, which include increasing vulnerability to manipulation by modern technologies, such as cyber attacks, deep fakes, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. States must understand and address the practical implications of these vulnerabilities now as a means to reduce the risk of crisis mismanagement in the future.
2. Backchannels play a significant role in diplomacy and defusing crises and sometimes rely on commonly used commercial messaging platforms like WhatsApp and Signal, amongst others. These commercial platforms are not uniformly adopted across geographies and are not necessarily sufficient for use in times of crisis, especially during escalation prior to nuclear launch in which cyber campaigns may mitigate or eradicate the ability of cellular networks to function well. Furthermore, such services are not dedicated for true crisis moments and thus lack necessary signaling mechanisms. Especially concerning is the security of the endpoint device being used, which in most cases are personal cell phones.
3. CATALINK—an internationally-driven, secure, resilient, novel crisis communication concept being developed by IST and an array of partners—provides a basis for conversation on additive technical concepts to existing crisis communications systems. Working through the technical and political challenges related to the CATALINK system encourages discussion of broader and more tangible responsible nuclear risk reduction efforts.
4. Further work is urgently required to expand the understanding of use cases for nuclear crisis communications, to best identify what technical and political requirements exist, to elucidate gaps, and to more earnestly and collaboratively update existing technical and political mechanisms to meet the challenges of 21st century multi-polar nuclear dynamics.

The Need for Systems Approaches for Precision Communications in Public Health

Abstract
A major challenge in communicating health-related information is the involvement of multiple complex systems from the creation of the information to the sources and channels of dispersion to the information users themselves. To date, public health communications approaches have often not adequately accounted for the complexities of these systems to the degree necessary to have maximum impact. The virality of COVID-19 misinformation and disinformation has brought to light the need to consider these system complexities more extensively.

Unaided, it is difficult for humans to see and fully understand complex systems. Luckily, there are a range of systems approaches and methods, such as systems mapping and systems modeling, that can help better elucidate complex systems. Using these methods to better characterize the various systems involved in communicating public health-related information can lead to the development of more tailored, precise, and proactive communications. Proceeding in an iterative manner to help design, implement, and adjust such communications strategies can increase impact and leave less opportunity for misinformation and disinformation to spread.

Detecting, Tracking, Mitigating, and Preventing Wildfires and Improving Science Communication

On March 24, 2022, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) met to discuss detecting, tracking, mitigating, and preventing wildfires and improving science communication.

Laurie Garrett recounts public health failures in talk on COVID-19 and pandemic preparedness

We featured Laurie Garrett’s seminal book on global health crises – The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance – in March 2022.  In November of the same year, Garrett shared some of her perspective on the challenges facing public health policy communication in at talk at UCSC.

Public Health Communication in an Era of Mis- & Disinformation: A Discussion with United Nations Under-Secretary-General Melissa Fleming (COM ’89)

UN Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications Melissa Fleming (COM) delivered a keynote conversation Boston University’s Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases focused on the evolving role of mis- and disinformation in the context of public health communications, including its role in pandemic preparedness and response.

Building Trust in Science through Effective Communication

The national security enterprise needs science, technology, and innovation more than ever. Good science, and trust in science, helps individuals, budget and policy makers, government organizations, and societies make better decisions on a host of issues.

Scientific understanding requires more than sharing facts and figures. Research and innovation need to be approachable, relevant, and engaging to individuals across backgrounds and experiences.  More constructive engagements on complex technical topics, like quantum computing and artificial intelligence, can lead to better partnerships and business opportunities. It can also reduce misunderstandings which lead to policy and regulatory missteps.

Effective communication builds trust and engagement. How you share your work directly impacts its reach, funding, and power.

Covid-19, Future Pandemics and Managing the Exponential Risk of Infectious Disease

There are two books that many people have returned to read or discovered during the pandemic which–taken together–have been pretty good source material for decision-making around the pandemic.

The Origin of COVID-19: Lessons from the Intelligence Community’s Assessment

Understanding how COVID-19 emerged is of great importance, and the US Intelligence Community (IC) has produced some of the most important assessments of this topic. Much of the recent coverage of the Intelligence Community’s assessment of the origin of COVID-19 has focused on which agencies hold which view. But the IC’s report has a lot more to offer on the subject of the origin of COVID-19.

Also, the process used by the IC in its assessment offers insights for how to analyze complex, high-stakes issues. In the business world, as in the world of intelligence, important decisions sometimes require dealing with murky evidence and—since we’re human—the tendency to engage in confirmation bias: interpreting information in a way that confirms or supports our prior beliefs or values. The techniques the IC used to produce the COVID-19 assessment are designed to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias.

January 9, 2023 – The Global Health, Business and Economic Implications of the Current Covid-19 Transmission Rate and Mass Casualty Event in China

Recent articles in Science Journal and Nature reference statistical models that predict the current surge of the Covid-19 virus will result in anywhere from 600,000 to 1.6 million deaths. The scale and duration of this surge in China are also bad news in the global battle with the Covid-19 virus, as the predicted infection rate of close to 1 billion people in China will provide the virus a vast sandbox for further mutation (especially the incubation afforded the virus in immuno-compromised individuals).  This “mutation surface” (to leverage a framing device used by the cybersecurity community) will most likely extend the threat of new variants and related societal impacts (and thus the cumulative total duration of this pandemic) well into 2023 – and possibly beyond.

February 2, 2022 – Continue to Tighten Your OODA Loop for Year Three of the COVID-19 Pandemic

If you are interested in the black swan/gray rhino aspects of the Covid-19 pandemic response, explore OODA Research and Analysis by searching ‘pandemic.’  The results tell the story of the OODA Loop research team tracking and analysis efforts (in the years leading up to 2020) of the following topics:  1) pandemic early warning systems; and 2) pandemic preparedness efforts, amongst others.  The database is rich and ripe for exploration and brainstorming.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

Planning for a Continuous Pandemic Landscape: COVID-19’s geopolitical repercussions are evident, with recent assessments pointing to China’s role in its spread. Regardless of the exact origins, the same conditions that allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic persist today. Therefore, businesses must be prepared for consistent health disruptions, implying that a substantial portion of the workforce might always operate remotely, even though face-to-face interactions remain vital for critical decisions. See: COVID Sensemaking

Decision Intelligence for Optimal Choices: The simultaneous occurrence of numerous disruptions complicates situational awareness and can inhibit effective decision-making. Every enterprise should evaluate their methods of data collection, assessment, and decision-making processes. For more insights: Decision Intelligence.

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning

Track Technology Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.