In the months ahead, we will be introducing a research area known as “Swarm Dynamics”, which grows out of discussions at OODAcon 2022.  Specifically, OODA John Robb positions “The Swarm” as a feature of his The Long Night framework  – both as a panelist and in previous OODAcast conversations with OODA CEO Matt Devost.  Swarm dynamics also figures prominently in the work of OODAcon 2022 panelist Sean Gourley.  We will be returning to transcriptions from the conference in the months ahead.  But as RSAC 2023 meets in San Francisco, we have compiled our current tracking of swarm dynamics, especially as it relates to kinetic and cyber warfare, positioning a formative hypothesis:  Is Swarm Dynamics the Design Architecture of the Future?

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/04/19/ukraine-is-a-master-class-in-cyber-defense-and-a-real-time-ai-accelerator/

OODA Loop Formative Research Tracking and Sensemaking on “The Swarm”

2018

Watch a swarm of 300 robots reorganize autonomously

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2018/12/26/watch-a-swarm-of-300-robots-reorganize-autonomously/

“Robotic swarms are compelling for researchers, civilian and military alike because they offer functionality through interchangeable components. Much of the promise of swarm robotics wants the machines to be as cheap and disposable as possible, while the swarm as a whole is still capable of performing tasks, even when components fail. For now, research like this kilobot swarm assembly will remain in the lab, but the potential implications of cheap robots that can communicate and coordinate as effectively and simply as demonstrated here could be huge. Everything from structure reassembly to patterns of self-healing armor to autonomous scouting clusters could potentially be derived from studies like this.”

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2018/09/27/an-air-force-way-of-swarm-using-wargaming-and-artificial-intelligence-to-train-drones/

Animals swarms in nature are providing insight into U.S. military development of drone swarms operating outside of a centralized command system. War on the Rocks writes, “now imagine being able to deploy a collection of drones on the scale and magnitude of a locust swarm. Indeed, the same laws that govern natural swarms could govern collective masses of cheap robotic systems. Today, efforts are underway to develop commercial swarms for crop pollination, surveillance, and high-resolution weather monitoring. However, to date, developers largely centralize the management of their robotic swarms.” Research has suggested that decentralized swarms, however, by avoiding a “single point of vulnerability,” would likely be more resilient in military operations scenarios. The essential idea of drone swarms is that “each drone must be able to execute the fundamental characteristic of the entire swarm, which is to independently coordinate its own decisions to produce behaviors to support a collective aim….therefore, to effectively employ drones as a swarm, the human must delegate more freedom of action to the collective decision-making algorithms of their autonomous systems.”

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2018/11/28/the-u-s-militarys-drone-swarm-strategy-just-passed-a-key-test/

As jamming technology threatens the effectiveness of drone swarms and autonomous vehicle tactics, the U.S. military has moved ahead with new network setups designed to overcome attacks against their communications and GPS systems. Following recent tests, DARPA announced that the drone systems “efficiently shared information, cooperatively planned and allocated mission objectives, made coordinated tactical decisions, and collaboratively reacted to a dynamic, high-threat environment with minimal communication.” The tests stressed the drones ability to collaborate, navigate, hit targets, navigate obstacles, and more, all through short bursts of communications passed over or in spite of jamming technology. Beyond the technological aspect, the tests demonstrate U.S. progress in the delegation of operational movements and minor decisions to smart weapons.

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2018/12/28/are-robot-swarms-the-future-of-destroying-sea-mines/

There are an estimated 80,000 sea mines in the Baltic, according to NATO estimates, and they remain a problem elsewhere around the world. New partnerships exploring the potential for underwater drones swarms in detecting and eliminating these high-risk mines are emerging as technology in the areas improves. “On Dec. 21, Thales and Aquabotix announced a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on the research and design of autonomous robot minesweepers. Formally described as a ‘rapidly deployable Mine Counter Measures (MCM), Rapid Environment Assessment (REA) and Military Hydrographic autonomous system mission solution,’ the robots the companies hope to collaborate on will be an alternative to sending humans immediately into the danger of aquatic unexploded ordnance. Acronyms aside, this robot has a much simpler, clearer title: the Swarm Diver, named because it will do just that. As described, a sort of mothership surface drone or underwater drone will release swarms of smaller autonomous underwater robots to scout, identify and ultimately neutralize discovered mines in littoral waters. Autonomy is key here, as communicating underwater is difficult and communicating with above-water assets from underwater especially tricky without an intermediary. Should the Swarm Diver project work as intended, swarms of autonomous robots could be the long-awaited answer to the enduring threat posed by autonomous explosives, new and old alike.”

2019

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2019/07/09/russian-military-plans-swarms-of-lethal-jihadi-style-drones-carrying-explosives/

The Russian military plans to use domestic-sized drones to “strike targets with bombs—making mini-UAVs extremely effective weapons.” The army is already developing “miniature bombs” that are to be carried by modified drones.

Russia aims to use the drones to target ground, sea or air-based vehicles, tactical locations and even individuals. Because militants in Iraq and Syria already use drones for this purpose, the Russian army has referred to this practice as ‘Jihadi aviation’.”

2020

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2020/01/02/the-pentagon-wants-ai-driven-drone-swarms-for-search-and-rescue-ops/

The Defense Department’s central artificial intelligence development effort is planning on building a swarm of AI-equipped drones that can independently track and identify targets. The drone force would primarily be used for search and rescue missions and potentially save lives. The Pentagon’s JAIC issued a request for information recently in hopes of finding out if AI developers can team up with drone swarm builders.

The project would also potentially search for companies or teams that can develop algorithms, provide machine training processes and data. The system must have enough edge processing power to enable the machine to fly, detect humans, and monitor without human intervention as well as simultaneously streaming live video footage to an operator.

2021

https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2021/07/20/researchers-create-drone-swarms-that-can-detect-gas-leaks-other-threats/

New research has pointed towards the creation of the first autonomous small drone swarm capable of detecting gas leaks, chemical threats, and mapping without the aid of GPS systems. The research may be pertinent to the military, where there has been an increasing interest in small drones that are able to conduct several tasks with little human control. The lack of GPS requirement may also be attractive as the drones may be able to reach tight places where GPS is ineffective, such as underground. The drones can also be used in situations where there is a threat to humans, such as when there are chemical weapons or other health hazards present.

The drones, called nano quadcopters, are small and easy to carry and deploy. Their small size also provides another advantage, it makes them difficult for enemies to target. However, they are too small to run certain algorithms, and perform light detection and ranging. The new paper published by IEEE researchers from the Netherlands, Spain, and the US discusses the advancements and the algorithm that allows for small drones to map areas and locate hazards.

For more OODA Loop news briefs and research and analysis on swarm dynamics, see The Swarm | OODA Loop

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2020/06/16/oodacast-john-robb-on-global-guerrillas-and-frameworks-to-drive-decision-making/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2021/10/07/digital-self-sovereignty-and-avoiding-the-long-night-with-john-robb/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2021/11/23/john-robb-on-the-early-internet-frameworks-to-drive-decision-making-network-tribalism-and-emerging-threats-1-of-2/

https://oodaloop.com/ooda-original/2021/11/26/john-robb-on-hyper-networked-tribes-digital-sovereignty-digital-identity-digital-rights-and-the-long-night-2-of-2/