In a Joint Intelligence Bulletin issued by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Federal Bureau of Investigation the threat of terrorist attacks against faith-based communities and soft targets amid religious holidays is discussed. The Bulletin states:

We are not aware of any links between these attacks and a specific, credible threat to the Homeland. The attacks, which occurred during the Easter holiday, killed approximately 320 people, including four US citizens. This JIB also intends to highlight the heightened threat to faith-based communities in the Homeland and overseas during major religious holidays, as well as continued interest from violent extremists in attacking high-profile and heavily populated soft targets such as hotels, restaurants, and tourist sites.

The FBI and DHS advise federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial government counterterrorism and law enforcement officials as well as private sector security partners responsible for securing faith-based communities and soft targets to remain vigilant in light of the recent Sri Lankan bombings and the enduring threat to faith-based communities posed by violent extremists. This JIB is provided to assist federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial counterterrorism and law enforcement officials and private sector security partners in effectively deterring, preventing, preempting, or responding to terrorist attacks in the United States.

We are concerned the magnitude and mass casualty rate of this attack, coupled with the targeting of religious institutions and other soft targets, may help radicalize or mobilize violent extremists in the United States and abroad. We cannot rule out the possibility that homegrown violent extremists (HVEs)c could become inspired by this attack and that Domestic Violent Extremists (DVEs)d could seek to retaliate against targets in the Homeland in response. Although HVEs and DVEs generally do not mobilize to violence in response to specific terrorist attacks and are usually influenced by a confluence of sociopolitical, ideological, and personal factors, exceptions may occur. HVEs may choose to plot against faith-based communities because of ideological drivers, a desire to target large gatherings or soft targets, or violent extremist messaging from foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). ISIS and al-Qa‘ida (AQ) routinely call for attacks against faith-based communities through their violent extremist messaging, underscoring their likely intent to incite the targeting of faith-based communities by HVEs.

• On 17 January 2019, Hasher Jallal Taheb was arrested on charges of attempted destruction of a US Government-owned facility with explosives after he planned to attack the White House, according to the criminal complaint. Taheb initially wanted to attack various other targets in the Washington, DC, area, including an identified synagogue.
• On 10 December 2018, Damon M. JosephUSPER was arrested for attempting to provide material support to ISIS for allegedly planning a mass-casualty attack on a synagogue in Toledo, Ohio, according to a DOJ press release. When researching a location, time, and weapons for the attack, Joseph allegedly expressed a desire to attack the greatest number of people and inflict mass casualties.
• On 5 August 2017, an Illinois-based individual and two indicted co- conspirators who were part of his group allegedly detonated an explosive device at an occupied mosque in Bloomington, Minnesota, which resulted in extensive damage but no known injuries, according to the criminal complaint and indictment. A member of the group said they did not intend to kill anyone but wanted to scare Muslims out of the country. The three were indicted in June 2018 for hate crimes and other offenses related to the attack. The two co-conspirators pleaded guilty to federal charges on 24 January 2019. The militia leader is currently awaiting trial.
• After the Christchurch, New Zealand attack on two mosques, a pro-ISIS Telegram group called for retaliation attacks against churches and distributed a poster with an image of an ISIS fighter inside a church accompanied by text reading “you are the only wolf to avenge the blood,” highlighting the call for lone offenders to take action. In a treatise analyzing the Christchurch attacks, a prominent pro-AQ writer called on Muslims to respond with violent action, citing the 11 September 2001 attacks and battles led by historical Muslim leaders against Christian armies.

ISIS will almost certainly use the Sri Lankan bombings to further its rhetoric for like-minded attacks.

• On 21 April 2019, pro-ISIS Muntasir Media published a poster portraying the Sri Lankan bombings as revenge, showing a scene from one of the churches and with English text reading, “Happy Easter. To the Christians […] Here is your reward.”
• Separately, the administrator of the pro-ISIS Telegram channel “Supporters of the Truth” and a pro-ISIS forum al-Minbar Jihadi Media user both described the bombings as a strategy for guerrilla warfare and revenge.
• The FBI and DHS define lone offenders as an individual acting alone or without the witting support of others to further social or political goals, wholly or in part, through activities that involve unlawful acts of force or violence. Lone offenders may act within the context of recognized domestic violent extremist ideologies, their own interpretation of those ideologies, or personal beliefs. The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics may not constitute extremism, and may be constitutionally protected.
• The Sri Lankan attacks also underscore the continued risk posed by terrorist groups to heavily populated soft targets, such as luxury hotels, restaurants, and popular tourist locations.
• ISIS encourages its supporters to execute simple attacks against soft targets— including hotels, restaurants, and nightclubs—within the supporter’s local environment, through any means possible, and without the need for permission from ISIS. Notable ISIS attacks targeting hotels include the January 2015 attack against the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, Libya, where foreign delegations were known to stay, and the June 2015 attack against a tourist resort in Sousse, Tunisia, which was popular with British tourists.
• Other violent extremist groups throughout the world have recently conducted attacks on soft targets. In January 2019, AQ-aligned Al-Shabaab conducted an attack against the DusitD2 hotel in Nairobi, Kenya, which killed one US citizen.

Outlook

The Sri Lankan bombings underscore the threat to faith-based institutions and soft targets by violent extremists. In the past year, the FBI has investigated more than 100 threats to religious institutions. The FBI and DHS assess various actors will continue to pose a lethal threat to faith-based communities in the Homeland and remain concerned about the difficulty of detecting US-based violent extremists, especially lone offenders, and the individualized nature of radicalization to violence.f The FBI and DHS urge state and local authorities and private sector security partners to promptly report suspicious activities.

Indicators

Due to the highly personal nature of radicalization and mobilization to violence, it is difficult to assess specific indicators that are indicative of US-based violent extremists’ intent to commit violence at home or abroad. Specific indicators of mobilization to violence can be found in the unclassified booklet “Homegrown Violent Extremist Mobilization Indicators,” which is available at below.

OODA Analysis

If you operate a faith-based organization or soft target as described by the bulletin, you should conduct a security assessment to gauge your vulnerabilities and also establish an emergency response plan to be utilized in the event of an incident. For more direct guidance, OODA Network Members are encouraged to contact us.

NCTC-FBI-DHS HVE Mobilization Indicators Booklet 2019

For other special reports and country studies see the OODA Network Resources page.