After decades of stagnation, space innovation keeps pushing the boundaries of the possible with new firsts emerging on a monthly basis. This topic was explored at length OODAcon 2023,  with a deep dive into the emerging opportunities, economies, and risks associated with the rapid development of space-based technologies, resource acquisition, and shift from the public to private sector.  

The following captures insights from a discussion between Ryan Westerdahl, CEO Turion Space and Sita Sonty, CEO Space Tango. 

Summary of the Panel Discussion 

“The challenge…is….after the government fields early capabilities and gets things off the ground, how best to leverage the private sector to figure out commercial models.”

About Space Tango:  The company already has an impressive flight heritage and talent heritage.  Space Tango is also already delivering on DARPA contracts.  Space Tango’s expertise includes biomanufacturing in space and space situational awareness – with an emphasis on the importance of addressing the problem of space debris before lift-off.  The company’s business model is based the hypothesis that low earth orbit is the initial crucial step. 

About Turion Space:  The company is made up of a hard core team of “sci-fi transformation engineers”.  An interesting question that Turion Space always asks is: Star Wars or Star Trek?  Turion Space is based on the premise that the architecture of space will be distributed across a broad vision, inspired by science fiction, of what space can and will be in the future. Turion is aligned wth Space Tango around the crucial first step that is low earth orbit. 

The Current “So What” of Space?  Biomanufacturing, better space situational awareness, and the challenge of space debris (as space collisions will hit a critical mass at some point).  In the last 6 months of 2023 there have been four collisions.  From those collisions, some 1000 more space debris objects form.  

“…the value lost by not innovating in space is multi-faceted and can affect various aspects of scientific, economic, and technological advancement.”

Broadband and Geospatial Intelligence: The importance of addressing space collisions and space debris was dicussed by the panel, with broadband and geospatial intelligence as central to innovation solutions.  The panel  discussion emphasized the need to prevent stagnation and the potential value of space exploration:  ” If we fail to address this problem before lift off, we will be stuck – and a period of space stagnation will ensue.” Additionally, the concept of “digital dust” and the significance of having a digital signature were mentioned.  Another interesting insight was the mention of Signal Fire, a fund involved in signals intelligence. 

What Value is being Generated from Space Exploration?:  Space exploration is generating significant value in various areas. According to Morgan Stanley, the estimated value creation from space exploration will be around $1.4 Trillion.  Additionally, space exploration provides opportunities for biomanufacturing breakthroughs and research, which can lead to advancements in healthcare and future physical ailments.  The development of reusable rockets, ground station services, and cloud infrastructure has reduced costs and accelerated space development.  However, challenges remain, such as the need to further reduce satellite costs and enhance cybersecurity in space.  Overall, space exploration offers economic opportunities, technological advancements, and potential for human expansion beyond Earth. 

Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained:  The value loss of not innovating in space, without any gain or risking loss, can be significant. Failure to address issues such as space collisions, space debris, and the protection of scientific research and intellectual property can lead to stagnation and missed opportunities. The involvement of big companies and significant investment in space-related endeavors, even in non-space-related fields, can impact the space industry and innovation.  It is crucial to focus on areas like biomanufacturing, low earth orbit, and the development of ground stations and infrastructure to drive progress and generate value.  Neglecting innovation in space can result in missed breakthroughs and a lack of progress in areas like cybersecurity and automation.  Overall, the value lost by not innovating in space is multi-faceted and can affect various aspects of scientific, economic, and technological advancement.

“Understanding…the price/performance equation of satellite costs is crucial for the advancement and sustainability of space exploration.”

What is in it for me?:  Getting people to care about the future of space:   With space exploration, there are several benefits for individuals, including breakthroughs in biomanufacturing in space that could potentially address future health security issues.  To get people to care about the future of space, passion and a focus on research and scaling appropriately are important.  Highlighting the potential for luxury goods production in space and showcasing missions that can inspire passion will also generate interest.  Furthermore, emphasizing the role of space in national security and the need for cybersecurity measures can help garner attention.  Overall, showcasing the economic, scientific, and technological opportunities, as well as the potential for addressing future challenges, can help individuals understand the value of space exploration.  The Netflix Series Countdown: Inspiration4 Mission to Space was mentioned an effective storytelling device to expose individuals to the passion and promise of space exploration. 

What is the Current Operating Environment for Space Development:  The current operating environment for space development includes various factors. As previously mentioned, one important aspect is the need to address the growing issue of space debris and collisions. Enablers for space development include the reusability of rockets like Falcon 9, ground station services, and the use of cloud infrastructure.  AWS’ Ground Station as a Service was mentioned as scalable platform economy enabler of space development. Cost reduction, automation, and the use of CAD/3D printing are also crucial in space development.  Cybersecurity is another critical consideration, with a focus on securing satellites and communication links.  The space domain offers opportunities for various industries, such as biomanufacturing and luxury goods production.  The future of space development includes exploring low Earth orbit, addressing cybersecurity challenges, and expanding capabilities for satellite servicing and maintenance.  Deep space will emerge on the development agenda over time.  

The Price/Performance Equation of Satellite Costs: The intersection of satellite costs and space exploration is important to understand for various reasons. The cost per kilogram of satellites needs to decrease – and automation plays a crucial role in shortening time cycles.  CAD/3D printing of components is being utilized.  Satellite innovation is central the future of cybersecurity – and cybersecurity is a critical concern in space exploration.  Space collisions and space debris pose risks to operational satellites that need to be addressed.  The space economy offers opportunities for value creation in the satellite subsector of telecommuncations: Government involvement is significant in terms of regulations, debris removal, and encryption of satellite systems. Understanding these aspects of the price/performance equation of satellite costs is crucial for the advancement and sustainability of space exploration. 

“The reality is space security applied through the prism of national security priorities contributes to the overall downside risk of all U.S. space economy stakeholders – and its terrrestrial allies.”

The Space ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis Center) and Cybersecurity: The Space ISAC is an organization that focuses on cybersecurity in the space industry. Its role is to address the cybersecurity challenges faced by the space sector.  Cybersecurity plays a crucial role in the Space ISAC, as it ensures the protection of space systems, satellites, and related infrastructure from cyber threats.  It involves considering cybersecurity aspects in various areas, such as satellite communication links, inter-satellite security, and edge computing in space.  The Space ISAC aims to support national security priorities and enhance the security of space assets by addressing cybersecurity risks and fostering collaboration among stakeholders. 

Cybersecurity “was almost an afterthought” for Turion Space’s DROID.001:   The role of cybersecurity in Droid-1 seems to have been an afterthought, according from Turion’s Westerdahl, which prompted the company to discover that it is important to take cybersecurity seriously early in the devlopment process,especially considering the mobility capabilities and communication aspects in space.  The need for innovation and secure optical space-to-ground communication links was also emphasized as a function of space and cybersecurity innovation.  Cybersecurity measures are a crucial aspect in space missions to ensure data integrity and protect against potential threats:  encryption of computer-aided design (CAD) files and the security of satellite systems are recognized as important considerations – and the protection of scientific research and intellectual property is also emphasized as a crucial concern in space-related cybersecurity endeavors.  There is already a need for innovation in space to ground capabilities, which are very hard to hack:  “It will Interesting to see what red teams come up with.”  

The Future of Quantum Halos, Space Exploration, and Cybersecurity is a Complex and Evolving Landscape:  Quantum Halos are still considered expensive, but their potential in enhancing mobility capabilities and cybersecurity should be taken seriously.  In terms of space exploration, there is a focus on reducing costs and improving efficiency, with advancements in reusable rockets like Falcon 9.  Cybersecurity plays a crucial role in space, with the need for innovation in secure communication links and protection against hacking.  Quantum security will play a role in the future of space security.  

What Role will Space Play in the Future of Cybersecurity and National Security?  Space will have a significant role in the future of cybersecurity and national security.  It is crucial to invest in space security capabilities to support national security priorities.  Inter-satellite security and edge computing in space are important considerations.  Satellite as a kinetic threat are not a hypothetical. Additionally, the innovation in optical space communication links and the difficulty of hacking space-to-ground links contribute to enhanced cybersecurity.  While the space industry’s advancements, such as reusable rockets and cloud infrastructure, have reduced costs and increased accessibility – it is essential to address cybersecurity as a serious concern, including cyber threats to mobility capabilities and the need for innovation in space communication.  The role of government in space’s future includes adapting models and investing in capabilities to mitigate risks and support national security.  Overall, the integration of space with cybersecurity and national security is crucial, and continued advancements and investments are necessary to ensure protection and resilience:   What can space security do to support national security priorities?”  The reality is space security applied through the prism of national security priorities contributes to the overall downside risk of all U.S. space economy stakeholders – and its terrrestrial allies. 

What Next?

The Space Edge Offers New Opportunities, Economies, and Risks in the Rapidly Developing Space-based Technologies:  With continuous innovation, space exploration is pushing boundaries and achieving new milestones. The shift from the public to private sector has opened up avenues for resource acquisition and economic growth.  However, there are also risks associated with this development, such as space collisions and the accumulation of space debris, which can hinder progress if not addressed properly. The emerging field of biomanufacturing and the potential for improved space situational awareness and geospatial intelligence are among the opportunities presented.  To fully understand the dynamics of the Space Edge, experts and industry leaders are discussing and analyzing these factors in various sessions and panels. 

The Future of Space Exploration is Producing Luxury Goods in Space and Developing a Space Economy:  There is a growing interest in utilizing space for various industries, such as fragrance production. The future may involve producing luxury goods in space and developing logistics infrastructure for satellite servicing and maintenance, establishing a growing industry. 

The Cost Per Kilogram to Reach Orbit is an Important Metric in Space Development:  An article was referenced which frames the need for the “cost per kilogram to come down from orbit”  – and mentions the importance of automation in shortening time cycles.Currently, efforts are being made to reduce this the cost per kilogram to get to orbit, with a call for a new metric to emerge that will be of the cost per kilogram to get “back down” to earth from space. Overall, reducing this cost is a priority and that it plays a significant role in space economics and future space missions.   

The Adaptation of Models to a “Keep Stuff Up” Space Economy:  The panel highlighted the growth industry of satellite servicing and maintenance to keep space=based hardware operating longer than in previous operability time lines for similar hardware in earlier periods of space exploration.   This “Life of Satellite” metric and model adaptation, as well as the reimagining and/or adaptation of refueling and logistics infrastructure were discussed by the panel as the “lowest hanging  fruit” of the nascent “keep stuff up” space economy. 

What is the Role of Government in Space in the Future?:  The role of government in space in the future is multi-faceted. As perviously discussed, One aspect is the focus on cybersecurity and national security.  Governments recognize the importance of protecting satellite systems and intellectual property  Additionally, government involvement is crucial in pacing space regulation and ensuring, for example, the encryption of CAD files.  Moreover, the government’s role extends to space security, supporting national security priorities, and fostering inter-satellite security.  Government-driven initiatives, particularly in the cislunar space domain, will be 100% government-driven by necessity. The challenge then is, after the government fields early capabilities and gets things off the ground (pun intended), how best to leverage the private sector to figure out commercial models.  Lastly, government investment and regulation can influence the space industry, even in non-space-related areas like luxury goods production. 

For the program notes for this session, see OODAcon 2023:  The Space Edge – Defining New Opportunities, Economies, and Risks

The full agenda for OODacon 2023 can be found here – Welcome to OODAcon 2023: Final Agenda and Event Details – including a a full description of each session, expanded speakers bios (with links to current projects and articles about the speakers) and additional OODA Loop resources on the theme of each panel. 

OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action

Download a summary of OODAcon including useful observations to inform your strategic planning, product roadmap and drive informed customer conversations.  This summary, based on the dialog during and after the event, also invites your continued input on these many dynamic trends.  See:  OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action.