The mining of critical minerals like perovskite-related materials and oxides of calcium and titanium is increasingly becoming a geopolitical issue. The strategic importance, limited availability, and geographical concentration of these resources are driving competition and have the potential to lead to conflicts. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of international cooperation, sustainable practices, and technological innovation. Find our formative analysis here of The Perovskite Scenarios, the latest installment in our Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation Series.

Background

Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation is the Primary Driver of Global, Strategic Competitive Advantage:  In 2023, OODA Loop contributor Scott Nuzum (SVP at Chicago-based Innovyz USA) contributed a foundational OODA Loop Original Analysis post  – Five Exciting Breakthroughs in Materials Science.  Over the course of  Q324 and Q424, we expand Scott’s insights into a series of posts based on, arguably, all of our project management and strategic experience – especially for those of us who are non-technical or not scientists in an organizational chart:  After just one interdisciplinary, cross-sector, cross-matrixed, and/or whole-of-government engineering or scientific touchpoint/experience on a complex project – a singular, breathtaking takeaway is always that material science is a fascinating discipline – just super cool and exciting – and THE cross-sector, interdisciplinary driver of global, strategic, competitive advantage across all exponential, deep, frontier and emerging technologies.

Perovskite Mineral Chrystal Structures are the Future of Renewable Energy – and Many Other Cross-sector Material Science Innovations:  We continue to pull the string provided to us by OODA Loop contributor Scott Nuzum (SVP at Chicago-based Innovyz USA) – in his 2023 OODA Loop post Five Exciting Breakthroughs in Materials Science. This time, we hone in on one of the five breakthroughs contextualized by Scott, Perovskite, “the versatile material with use cases that extend to sectors such as solar power, LED technology, lasers, and quantum computing, creating a ripple effect of innovation.”

Perovskite, a mineral composed of calcium titanium oxide (CaTiO₃), is named after the Russian mineralogist Lev Perovski. The primary geographic locations for mining perovskite and its associated oxides of calcium and titanium are diverse, reflecting the mineral’s widespread occurrence in the Earth’s crust.  These regions highlight the global distribution of perovskite and its associated oxides, underscoring the mineral’s importance in various industrial applications, including its emerging role in solar cell technology due to its excellent photovoltaic properties.

• Russia: The Ural Mountains in Russia are historically significant for perovskite mining. The mineral was first discovered in this region, and it remains a notable source.
• United States: In the U.S., perovskite deposits are found in several states, including Arkansas, where the Magnet Cove region is particularly rich in titanium-bearing minerals. Additionally, the Mountain Pass mine in California, known for its rare-earth elements, also contains perovskite.
• China: China, a global leader in rare-earth element production, also has significant perovskite deposits. The regions rich in rare-earth elements, such as Inner Mongolia and the southern provinces like Jiangxi and Guangdong, often contain perovskite as well.
• Brazil: The Araxá region in Brazil is another important location for perovskite mining. Brazil’s rich geological diversity includes significant deposits of titanium and other minerals.
• India: In India, the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have notable deposits of ilmenite, a titanium-iron oxide mineral often found in association with perovskite.
• Australia: Australia, known for its vast mineral resources, has significant deposits of titanium minerals, particularly in Western Australia. The Murray Basin is also a notable source of ilmenite and other titanium-bearing minerals.

Future Mining, Geopolitical Competition and Conflict

The future mining of critical minerals, including perovskite-related materials and oxides of calcium and titanium, is a source of geopolitical competition and has the potential to lead to conflict. Here are several reasons why this is happening:

1. Strategic Importance of Critical Minerals

• Technological Advancements: These minerals are essential for the production of advanced technologies, including renewable energy systems, electronics, and various high-tech applications. For instance, perovskites are vital for next-generation solar cells, while oxides of calcium and titanium are crucial for a range of industrial processes and advanced materials.
• Energy Transition: As the world moves towards renewable energy, the demand for these minerals is increasing. Countries that control the supply chains of these critical materials gain significant strategic advantages.

2. Resource Scarcity and Geographical Concentration

• Limited Reserves: The reserves of critical minerals are often concentrated in a few geographical locations. This creates dependencies and vulnerabilities for countries that lack domestic sources.
• Monopolization: Nations with abundant resources may monopolize the supply, using it as leverage in geopolitical negotiations. For example, China’s dominance in rare earth elements and its ability to influence global markets is a notable instance.

3. Economic and Security Implications

• Supply Chain Security: Countries are increasingly viewing the secure and reliable supply of critical minerals as a matter of national security. Disruptions in supply chains can have severe economic and military implications.
• Investment and Control: Nations are investing heavily in securing overseas mining operations and forming alliances to ensure a steady supply of critical minerals. This can lead to conflicts of interest and geopolitical tensions.

4. Environmental and Ethical Concerns

• Sustainability Issues: Mining activities can lead to significant environmental degradation, prompting local and international conflicts over sustainable practices and environmental justice.
• Labor Practices: Ethical concerns about labor practices in mining operations, especially in developing countries, can lead to international tensions and calls for regulatory interventions.

Examples of Geopolitical Competition

1. China’s Dominance: China has been actively securing its position in the supply chains of critical minerals, including those needed for high-tech industries and renewable energy technologies. This has raised concerns among other major economies, particularly the United States and European Union, about their dependency on Chinese supplies.
2. U.S. and European Strategies: The U.S. and EU are developing strategies to reduce their dependence on foreign sources of critical minerals. This includes investing in domestic mining operations, exploring recycling and alternative materials, and forming strategic alliances with resource-rich countries.
3. Africa and South America: These regions, rich in various critical minerals, are becoming focal points for investment and competition among global powers. The scramble for resources can lead to local conflicts and broader geopolitical struggles.

What Next?

Potential for Conflict

• Territorial Disputes: Disputes over territories rich in critical minerals can escalate into conflicts. Historical examples include disputes in Africa over resources such as diamonds and rare earth elements.
• Trade Wars and Sanctions: Countries may resort to trade wars and economic sanctions to control the flow of critical minerals. These economic measures can lead to broader geopolitical tensions.
• Military Engagements: In extreme cases, competition over critical resources can lead to military confrontations. Ensuring access to critical minerals can become a justification for military presence and interventions.

Mitigation Strategies

• International Cooperation: Collaborative efforts through international organizations and treaties can help manage competition and ensure fair access to critical minerals.
• Sustainable Practices: Promoting sustainable mining practices and developing recycling technologies can reduce the environmental impact and geopolitical tension associated with resource extraction.
• Diversification: Investing in alternative materials and technologies that reduce dependence on specific critical minerals can mitigate risks and competition.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

Materials Science Revolution: Room-temperature ambient pressure superconductors represent a significant innovation. Sustainability gets a boost with reprocessable materials. Energy storage sees innovations in solid-state batteries and advanced supercapacitors. Smart textiles pave the way for health-monitoring and self-healing fabrics. 3D printing materials promise disruptions in various sectors. Perovskites offer versatile applications, from solar power to quantum computing. See: Materials Science

Technology Convergence and Market Disruption: Rapid advancements in technology are changing market dynamics and user expectations. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.

The New Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech: Will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. This convergence requires a deepened commitment to foresight and preparation and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere. The New Tech Trinity.

The Revolution in Biology: This post provides an overview of key thrusts of the transformation underway in biology and offers seven topics business leaders should consider when updating business strategy to optimize opportunity because of these changes. For more see:  The Executive’s Guide To The Revolution in Biology

Quantum Computing and Quantum Sensemaking: Quantum Computing, Quantum Security and Quantum Sensing insights to drive your decision-making process. Quantum Computing and Quantum Security

AI Discipline Interdependence: There are concerns about uncontrolled AI growth, with many experts calling for robust AI governance. Both positive and negative impacts of AI need assessment. See: Using AI for Competitive Advantage in Business.

Benefits of Automation and New Technology: Automation, AI, robotics, and Robotic Process Automation are improving business efficiency. New sensors, especially quantum ones, are revolutionizing sectors like healthcare and national security. Advanced WiFi, cellular, and space-based communication technologies are enhancing distributed work capabilities. See: Advanced Automation and New Technologies

Emerging NLP Approaches: While Big Data remains vital, there’s a growing need for efficient small data analysis, especially with potential chip shortages. Cost reductions in training AI models offer promising prospects for business disruptions. Breakthroughs in unsupervised learning could be especially transformative. See: What Leaders Should Know About NLP

Rise of the Metaverse: The Metaverse, an immersive digital universe, is expected to reshape internet interactions, education, social networking, and entertainment. See Future of the Metaverse.

Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution