“So why predict an ‘87%’ chance of another meltdown in 2013? Because in the real world of statistical probabilities, historical facts and expert opinions danger signals are flashing wild. In mid-2008 we summarized the predictions of 20 experts over several years. Predicted a meltdown in a few years — markets crashed two months later. Fast.”
Source: Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end – Paul B. Farrell – MarketWatch