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Decision Intelligence
The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Stratigames, Business Intelligence and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain.
Disruptive/ Exponential Technology
We track the rapidly changing world of technology with a focus on what leaders need to know to improve decision-making. Gain insights into the future of tech in a way that enables optimized action. We provide deep insights into Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Cloud Computing, Quantum Computing, Security Technology, Space Technology.
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Security and Resiliency
Security and resiliency topics include geopolitical and cyber risk, cyber conflict, cyber diplomacy, cybersecurity, nation state conflict, non-nation state conflict, global health, international crime, supply chain and terrorism.
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The OODA community includes a broad group of decision-makers, analysts, entrepreneurs, government leaders and tech creators. Interact with and learn from your peers via online monthly meetings, OODA Salons, the OODAcast, in-person conferences and an online forum. We have established a workspace for member collaboration using Slack. Members are eligible to use private rooms created for member to member interaction and collaboration. The community also has access to a member only video library.
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Country Studies and Threat Briefs
These reports provide a solid baseline that can inform your decision-making and put our daily reports into better context. Please contact us for questions or comments on any of these reports.
Russia Threat Brief: Russia should be considered a kleptocracy, where the rule of law exists as long as it supports the objectives of the state and the ruling oligarchs. All U.S. businesses should exercise extreme caution before doing business in or with Russia. Our special report on The Russian Threat captures insights on the full spectrum of Russian capabilities and intention, including their actions in cyber conflict. For more read the continuously updated Russia Threat Brief
China Threat Brief: Several countries have the capability to inflict harm on U.S. interests. However, China is the only one who has declared an intent to challenge the U.S. for global supremacy. China remains a closed society where challenges to party rule are met with harsh, sole crushing response. China is a powerhouse, but one with weaknesses. The same statement carries over to military and intelligence domains. For more read the continuously updated China Threat Brief.
Iranian Threat Brief: Iran has been investing heavily in cyber operations and is experienced in conducting both espionage and attack. Iran is undemocratic, with power centered in a Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei). A President exists but has little power compared to the Supreme Leader. But below them is a vibrant and powerful country of over 81 million. Iranian education systems and scientific pursuits make them a technologically empowered nation that can mount surprisingly sophisticated cyber operations. For more read the continuously updated: Iranian Threat Brief.
DPRK Threat Brief: North Korea describes itself as a “self-reliant socialist state” but it is really best described as a Stalinist dictatorship. Leader Kim Jong-un holds power and dominates all functions through a mix of violence, rewards and intense propaganda. A common misperception about the DPRK is that they are so backwards and poor that they cannot mount a modern cyber war. But reality is that their policy of “Songun” (military first) means there are resources for capabilities considered strategic, and that includes cyber war. For more read the continuously updated DPRK Threat Brief.
Special Reports
OODA Best Practices for Agile Cybersecurity: Members of the OODA expert network continuously track best practices for policy, procedures, technology and governance related to cyber defense. We work directly defending enterprises in cyber defense and maintain an always up to date list of actions in a form designed to help any organization stay as agile as possible in the face of dynamic adversaries. Read more at the OODA Special Report on Best Practices for Agile Cybersecurity.
Are you making the most of your data holdings? If you want to leverage your data to the better of your business you need to treat it like a weapon and use it to gain advantage over others. This is not just about your technical architecture, this is about your attitude. For our best practices on how to do so see the OODA Guide to Using Your Data As A Weapon.
OODA Original Reports
- A Renewed Commitment and Reorientation to the First Principles Thinking of the FoundersFirst principles thinking is a timeless methodology that continues to influence diverse fields by encouraging deep analysis and innovative solutions. While Aristotle and Descartes are pivotal figures in its philosophical underpinnings, modern figures like Elon Musk have popularized its application in business and technology, demonstrating its enduring relevance and utility. Trying times as a nation require a recommitment and reorientation to the core documents. Find an OODA Loop Original Analysis here, applying first principles thinking to the foundational documents of the nation.
- NATO Versus “The Ultimate Threat Multiplier”In 2017, NATO released a seminal report that concluded that climate change is the ultimate “threat multiplier,” leading to an increase in the number of regional and global disputes and violent conflicts caused by climate change-induced global scarcity. The Department of Defense (DoD) has also recognized that climate change will exacerbate existing security challenges and create new ones. Explore this post for a window into the DoD and NATO’s strategic pivot to take on the climate crisis crucial to steering away from a dystopian future scenario.
- What You Need to Know About the Reemergence of “Schedule F” (Executive Order 13957 – a Corollary to Project 2025)Project 2025 and Schedule F have been in our research queue relative to our prognostication in the OODA Almanac 2024: “Viewed through the lens of history, 2024 will be a landmark year punctuated by the complexities of a political process that will exacerbate the binary fractures of the American republic.” As we head into the national conventions of the U.S. political parties, find what you need to know about Schedule F here.
- The Art of Geopolitical Intelligence: Lessons for Informed Decision-MakingWith this post I reflect on some of the key lessons I have learned in the world of geopolitical intelligence analysis and reporting. My goal in sharing these lessons is to help you optimize your use of the reporting you see in the OODA daily pulse and the long form research and reporting done for our OODA network members.
- “Uniting Forward Thinkers”: NATO DIANA’s 2024 ChallengesIn the run-up to this week’s 2024 NATO Summit in Washington D.C., NATO DIANA announced the innovation accelerator’s 2024 Innovation Challenges. Details here.
- An AI Based Digital Clone for Tech Startup Success In The Federal MarketAt OODA we have helped startups with disruptive capabilities succeed in several markets including defense tech, bio tech, quantum tech, space systems, bio tech and cybersecurity. We love doing what we can to accelerate great capabilities into market. This AI enabled clone can do much of that for you for free.
- The Perovskite Scenarios: Critical Mineral Mining and the Future of Geopolitical Competition and ConflictThe mining of critical minerals like perovskite-related materials and oxides of calcium and titanium is increasingly becoming a geopolitical issue. The strategic importance, limited availability, and geographical concentration of these resources are driving competition and have the potential to lead to conflicts. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of international cooperation, sustainable practices, and technological innovation. Find our formative analysis here of The Perovskite Scenarios, the latest installment in our Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation Series.
- Shields Ready: Critical Infrastructure Security and ResilienceCISA’s launched the Shields Ready campaign in late 2023 to complement the Shields Up! campaign, which we have featured many times here at OODA Loop – specifically on long holiday weekends when cyber-attacks are known to increase. Explore the CISA Shields Ready campaign here. And Shields Ready! as we head into day 2 of a long July 4th weekend.
- The U.S. Government has $13.3B Worth of Crypto Stashed Away; Transfers $214M to a Coinbase WalletConsistent with our OODAcon 2024 theme – Convergence – the recent transfer of $214M worth of bitcoin from the total $13.3B worth of bitcoin held by the USG – predominantly made up of the bitcoin acquired by the USG from the Silk Road seizure – converges with our general bullish coverage vis a vis our long view on crypto and our future of money analysis by way of our Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future. $13.3B is real money and a real strategic stake in the ground for the USG as the future of crypto plays itself out.
- July 4, 2024Here is to a safe, festive, and restful Fourth of July. Thank you for your continued support. – Matt Devost, Bob Gourley, and the OODA Loop team
- AUTOMATE 2024OODA Loop was on the road this Spring, doing Field Research at Several Notable Spring 2024 Conferences – including Automate 2024: North America’s largest robotics and automation event held in Chicago, IL, in early May. HIgh-level takeaways from the OODA Loop research team can be found here.
- The Republic of Malta’s First-of-its-Kind e-ID (Electronic Identification System)The Republic of Malta’s e-ID is an electronic identification system that enables Maltese citizens, residents, and businesses to access a wide range of online government services. By providing a secure digital identity and facilitating digital transactions, the e-ID system plays a crucial role in Malta’s digital transformation and integration with the broader EU digital economy. Details here.
- e-Estonia: The Digital Residency Program of EstoniaThe e-Estonia Digital Residency Program, also known as e-Residency, allows individuals from anywhere in the world to apply for a digital identity issued by the Estonian government, enabling them to access a variety of online services provided by Estonia. The program allows non-residents to access a variety of Estonian public services and conduct business within the European Union without physically being in Estonia as part of the country’s broader strategy to leverage digital technology to enhance governance and economic activity. Explore e-Estonia here.
- The Digital Nomadics: Individuals, Communities, and Organizations Living the LifeIn this post: the world of digital nomadism – rich with personal stories, thriving communities, and supportive organizations.
- Is the Kaspersky Ban in the United States Warranted?Recently, the Biden Administration announced the ban of the sale of Kaspersky antivirus software in the United States, citing the company’s “ties” to the Russian government as a potential risk to U.S. national security. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) conducted a review of the company’s cybersecurity and anti-virus transactions, making its determination based on five security risks… Read more: Is the Kaspersky Ban in the United States Warranted?
- Perovskite Mineral Chrystal Structures are the Future of Renewable Energy – and Many Other Cross-sector Material Science InnovationsIn the latest installment in our Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation Series, we continue to pull the string provided to us by OODA Loop contributor Scott Nuzum (SVP at Chicago-based Innovyz USA) – in his 2023 OODA Loop post Five Exciting Breakthroughs in Materials Science. This time, we hone in on one of the five breakthroughs contextualized by Scott – Perovskite, “the versatile material with use cases that extend to sectors such as solar power, LED technology, lasers, and quantum computing, creating a ripple effect of innovation.”
- The Houthi’s Hollywood-style Branding Campaign – and Situational Awareness from the Deck of the USS EisenhowerIf you are wondering about the strategic imperative and geopolitical incentive structures vis a vis the Red Sea, consider this: “15% of global trade passes exactly through the Red Sea.” In this post: a sampling of recent the Houthi’s internet-based viral video marketing efforts – with an eery Hollywood-style production value touting their maritime USV capabilities – and an excellent rerun from this last Sunday of the high-level situational awareness report by CBS News/60 Minutes from the deck of the U.S.S. Eisenhower currently deployed in the Red Sea.
- On Nomads, Nomadism, the Emergence of the Nation-State, and Digital NomadismWe explore the digital nomadic lifestyle and the global community of purveyors of the life of a digital nomad through the prism of our Digital Self-Sovereignty Research Initiative.
- The May 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting: Insights and Takeaways from Spring 2024 Conferences and Field Research EffortsAt the May 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – held on Friday, May 17, 2024 – the network discussed their insights and takeaways from recent attendance of and field research at several notable spring 2024 conferences.
- Global Response to the U.S. Ban of Moscow-based Cybersecurity Behemoth Kaspersky LabsExcerpts from the press release from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) “Prohibition of Russian Kaspersky Software for U.S. Customers” can be found here in this post – along with a sampling of news coverage in the last 16 hours since the announcement from outlets as varied as Tass, The Guardian, and Axios – amongst others.
- Accelerating AGI: Why we should all want it sooner vice laterI hear of many projected benefits of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). But most deal with solving big problems for humanity. Helping national security, helping defeat cancer and other horrible terminal diseases, helping ensure food, transportation, the economy are all optimized are all noble reasons to pursue AGI as fast as possible.
- Is the Mass Casualty Event at the Annual Hajj Pilgrimage the Largest to Date Induced by Wet Bulb Conditions?The death toll in Makkah in 2024 is now in a photo finish with Arizona’s confirmed 645 heat-associated deaths in metro Phoenix (Maricopa County) – over the course of 2023 – as the largest mass casualty events induced by wet bulb conditions to date of The Anthropocene.
- Should We Really Be Worried Over Influence Campaigns?In the runup to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, much attention has been placed on rampant influence campaigns emerging from U.S. adversaries like China, Iran, and Russia. Over the last decade, fear of influence campaigns has risen with the popularity of social media usage and the public routinely eschewing traditional media and turning to alternative sources. Unsurprisingly,… Read more: Should We Really Be Worried Over Influence Campaigns?
- The National Blockchain Standard… in ChinaIn June 2023, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced “a national standard for blockchain technology to guide the development of the industry.” In this post: an analysis of the strategic policy initiatives in the lead-up to the June 2023 unveiling of the Chinese national blockchain standard – and future scenarios.
- A Dispatch from the Ministry for the Future: “Wet Bulb” Heat and Humidity Conditions in the U.S.Wet bulb temperature is a measure that combines air temperature and humidity, indicating conditions under which the human body’s ability to cool itself through sweating and evaporation is compromised. While not a mass casualty event, over the next four days, places and pockets of the U.S. may be in wet bulb territory for a long enough duration to be of concern. Consider this the first OODA Loop dispatch from the Ministry fpr the Future that is actually acting as a tactical advisory for the next four days as well.
- Market Pivot or Inflection Point? Blockchain Storage Utilization, Data Inscription, and the Exponential Growth of Storage BlocksIs the blockchain primarily a storage of value technology or an infrastructure for the storage of information? Or both in unequal or equal measure? And does this issue represent a business model pivot or inflection point for the web3 stack and the future of the internet? We explore these questions in this OODA Loop Original Analysis.
- Anatomy of a Cyber-crypto Heist: $22 Million in Crypto Lifted from Blockchain-based Gala GamesWe continue to track notable convergences in the Global Gaming Ecosystem – like our recent analysis of North Korea’s ‘Moonstone Sleet’ hacking group using a fake tank game for ransomware attacks. In this post you will find the details of a May 2024 gaming platform-based cybercrime incident: The theft of $22 million in crypto from the blockchain-based platform Gala Games.
- The Materials Genome Initiative (MGI): A Paradigm Shift in the Discovery, Development, and Deployment of New MaterialsThink of the infrastructure and architecture of the Human Genome Project, then apply it to the acceleration of our “understanding of the fundamentals of material science, providing a wealth of practical information that entrepreneurs and innovators will be able to use to develop new products and processes.” For the initiated: Welcome to the Materials Genome Initiative (MGI).
- Cybersecurity Regulation Harmonization Need to Be Done Correctly, Not QuicklyThere is no doubt that regulation harmonization is much needed especially given the amount of cyber regulation being developed or already on the books, and how it’s being enforced.
- Exponential Technologies and the Future of Digital Self-SovereigntyThe convergence of exponential technological disruption with digital self-sovereignty could lead to a redefinition of personal and collective agency – and will likely profoundly transform industries and societies. In this post: an OODA Loop Original Analysis of the implications of this convergence and future scenarios.
- Simplifying Crypto for Everyone: The Revolutionary Coinbase Smart Wallet ExplainedCoinbase has a new crypto wallet which is incredibly easy to use but also very powerful. And it has security features backed up by a consortium of some of the greatest security engineers on the planet. The result is an easy to use crypto financial tool that provides powerful capabilities to anyone with a smartphone or modern computer with a browser.
- Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation is the Primary Driver of Global, Strategic Competitive AdvantageAfter just one interdisciplinary, cross-sector, cross-matrixed, and/or whole-of-government engineering or scientific touchpoint/experience on a complex project – a singular, breathtaking takeaway is always that material science is a fascinating discipline – just super cool and exciting – and THE cross-sector, interdisciplinary driver of global, strategic, competitive advantage across all exponential, deep, frontier and emerging technologies. Welcome to the 2024 OODA Loop Research Series: Exponential, Convergent Material Science Innovation is Global, Strategic, Competitive Advantage.
- The Future Is Here: San Francisco Deep Tech Week 23-29 JuneThe topics of Deep Tech week align perfectly with what our OODA network is interested in and what we cover here. Topics include AI of course, but not just AI. The event is for builders of the most advanced capabilities in energy, biotech, robotics, manufacturing, aerospace, and defense.
- Is the Sociotechnical Geopolitical Future – and War? – Converging in the Islands and Territories of the Pacific and Oceania?Recent insights from Chris Ward’s (Senior Advisor at OODA LLC and an OODA Network Member) – “Decoding of DoD’s Pacific Missions” – have converged with our recent deep dive into The Digital Residency Program of the Pacific Island Nation of Palau and our previous tracking of activity in Guam. Following is what is blipping on the geopolitical radar and converging in the Islands and Territories of the Pacific and Oceania.
- Artificial Intelligence, The Metaverse, Compute, and The Future of Digital Identity FrameworksThe title of this post says it all: you will find here an OODA Loop original analysis of Artificial Intelligence, The Metaverse, Compute, and The Future of Digital Identity Frameworks as part of our Digital Self-Sovereignty Research Initiative.
- A Generational Shift: The Global Gaming Ecosystem as Attack Surface and Point of EntryDiscord’s server-based community and communications were central to the 2023 Airman Jack Texeira case. Still, by all accounts, Discord-based comms usually run parallel to multi-player gaming activity amongst this age cohort. Fortnite, Minecraft, and Roblox? All are current building blocks of the future metaverse. The Global Gaming Ecosystem is all at once an attack surface and point of entry. Game worlds are already a clear gathering place – but do law enforcement, and the IC have adequate entry into these communities for attribution efforts in response to incidents based on these platforms and in these younger communities? We continue to track notable convergences in this space. Details here.
- The Blockchain-based Root Name System (RNS) is Poised to Swap Out Traditional Domain Name Systems (DNS)The blockchain-based Root Name System (RNS) leverages blockchain technology to manage domain names in a decentralized manner – and is the core design and technical element of our recent blockchain-based use case, The Digital Residency Program of the Pacific Island Nation of Palau. Find an overview of RNS here.
- The Digital Residency Program of the Pacific Island Nation of PalauIn the first of our case studies in the OODA Loop Digital Self-Sovereignty Research Initiative, we turn to the digital residency program of the Pacific Island nation of Palau. Add digital residency platforms to the list – along with non-nation-state APT hacking groups and non-nation-state drone armies – as an at-work mechanism in the potential dissolution of the centrality (and/or the partial or complete disintermediation) of nation-states as the organizing principle (and principals) of geopolitics and global conflict.
- An Overview of the NIST NVD Backlog Debacle: Cybersecurity Company Brought in on a Five-Year, $125M Contract to AssistIn February 2024, The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) attributed an increase in volume and structural changes in “interagency support” as the reasons behind a backlog of vulnerabilities analyzed in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD), which NIST operates, as “the organization struggled to process waves of new vulnerabilities.” Following is a tick-tock of the NIST NVD debacle, including the recent contract award to Maryland-based cybersecurity company Analygence to address the backlog.
- Beyond Compliance: How the SEC’s Materiality Rules Should Transform Cybersecurity OversightAssessing materiality of a breach sounds easy. But in reality it will require many corporations to re-think the governance processes they have in place. This post provides insights which can help accelerate improvement of the quality and compliance of materiality decisions. It is based on decades of work in cybersecurity governance and a deep understanding of the new SEC regulations.
- U.S. Gets Praise for Cybersecurity Posture Improvement but Where’s Data Privacy?The United States is making significant progress with respect to cybersecurity, but much of that is federally focused.
- The OODA Loop Digital Self-Sovereignty Research Initiative (Self-Sovereign Identity, Digital Citizenship, Personal Data Ownership and Portability)Digital self-sovereignty is the new “build” as legacy systems get swapped out in a sometimes violent, always exponential fashion. To be clear, we are positioning digital self-sovereignty as a solution to our current problem set that will “still stand” even if this current geopolitical, exponential technology-driven inflection point manifests – for a prolonged period –… Read more: The OODA Loop Digital Self-Sovereignty Research Initiative (Self-Sovereign Identity, Digital Citizenship, Personal Data Ownership and Portability)
- The OODA Network on New AI-based Threats and Issues for the U.S. Cognitive Infrastructure, Internet Safety and Wellness for KidsFollowing the initial discussion at the April 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting of Domain-Specific Large Language Model Development and Use Cases, and the follow-up discussion on Exponential Technology Disruption, Global Risk, and Geopolitical Futures, the spoofing capabilities of AI creating new threats and issues began a discussion that gradually focused on and distilled more granular insights related to Internet-based Child Safety and Wellness – and potential preventive business models and platforms. Details of that portion of the meeting discussion can be found here.
- The Cyber Arms Race Gives Way to AI WeaponizationThe weaponization of cyberspace has been a legitimate concern as nation states aggressively build capabilities to project power, retaliate, and become more offensively minded.
- Global Turbulence: Rethinking Business Strategies in an Era of UnrestI’ve professionally tracked geopolitical events for my entire adult life, starting as a Navy Intelligence Officer in 1982. Now at OODA I continue this professional watching of geopolitical events (most of which you see reflected in our reporting). Four decades of experience of operational intelligence analysis leads me to the same conclusion most any watcher of international events would have. Although the world has always been a dangerous place, especially for democratic nations, we are entering a period of increasing peril and extreme volatility.
- What Executives Need To Know About The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment From the U.S. Intelligence CommunityThe Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community is an unclassified report released each year concurrent with Congressional testimony to Congress by the Director of National Intelligence. The report focuses on what the ODNI believes are the most direct, serious threats to the U.S. during the next year. Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe… Read more: What Executives Need To Know About The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment From the U.S. Intelligence Community
- The OODA Network on Exponential Technology Disruption, Global Risk, and Geopolitical FuturesFollowing the initial discussion at the April 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting of Domain-Specific Large Language Model Development and Use Cases, the conversation transitioned into technology topics, underscoring the need to stay informed about rapidly advancing tech domains, in a discussion of a broad swath of exponential technologies in the context of the current global risk brief and strategic geopolitical futures. That discussion is summarized here.
- Framing Transparency as AI Races on Down the Road at Double Exponential SpeedAI Transparency is a concept centered on openness, comprehensibility, and accountability in technological systems. In the context of AI, transparency refers to the extent to which the inner workings and decision-making processes of AI systems are made accessible and understandable to users and other stakeholders. This includes insights into the data training, algorithms employed, and… Read more: Framing Transparency as AI Races on Down the Road at Double Exponential Speed
- Washington D.C.: The Emerging Crypto Capital of the World?Political Realignment and Regulatory Evolution Pave the Way for Blockchain Innovation in the Nation’s Capital
- HHS Launches $50 Million ARPA-H Program to Improve Hospital CybersecurityAlready a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and all other premium research and analysis. Subscribers receive: Exclusive Content Access: Research and expert driven analysis to inform your decision-making. Over ten thousand articles on disruptive technologies, cybersecurity, geo-political risk, and national security technology issues available only to subscribers. Our Daily Global Pulse will… Read more: HHS Launches $50 Million ARPA-H Program to Improve Hospital Cybersecurity
- The United States’ International Cyberspace and Digital Policy StrategyAt this year’s RSA Conference a few weeks ago, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the release of the United States’ International Cyberspace and Digital Policy Strategy – which we assume was a policy effort led (within State and across all federal agencies) by the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, where Nate Fick remains… Read more: The United States’ International Cyberspace and Digital Policy Strategy
- The Recoding of War Doctrine and the Disintermediation of the Theater of Operation by the Swarm ArchitectureFuture scenarios involving the Recoding of War Doctrine and the Disintermediation of the Theater of Operation by the Swarm Architecture are transformative, heralding a shift in the very fabric of military strategy and operations. While still evolving, these concepts suggest a future where warfare is increasingly dominated by autonomous systems and decentralized decision-making, fundamentally altering… Read more: The Recoding of War Doctrine and the Disintermediation of the Theater of Operation by the Swarm Architecture
- The MissionLink 2024 Cohort and New Advisory Board MembersIn March, Sixty-three companies were selected to participate in an invitation-only MissionLink program for CXOs of innovative, next-gen companies with dual-use National Security technology. MissionLink has also expanded its Board of Advisors. Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and all other premium research and analysis. Subscribers receive: Exclusive Content Access: Research… Read more: The MissionLink 2024 Cohort and New Advisory Board Members
- The State Department’s Cyber Strategy Seeks to Build Coalitions Against ChinaAt the RSA cybersecurity conference, the Secretary of State announced the release of the Department’s new International Cyberspace & Digital Policy Strategy whose four goals are to advance economic prosperity; enhance security and address cybercrime; promote human rights, democracy, and the rule of law; and other transnational challenges.
- The April 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting: A Discussion of Domain-Specific Large Language Model Development and Use CasesAt the April 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – held on Friday, April 19, 2024 – the network tackled developing (and potential use cases for) domain-specific large language models.
- The Social Engineering Tactics of Ransomware-as-a-Service Operator Black BastaLast week: another high-impact ransomware attack in the healthcare sector, this time on Healthcare Giant Ascension. The attack has been attributed to a Russian non-state actor Black Basta – a “group…believed to have been started by former members of the infamous Conti ransomware collective, which dissolved in May 2022. Since then, Black Basta and its… Read more: The Social Engineering Tactics of Ransomware-as-a-Service Operator Black Basta
- The Future of Federal Research and Development and the Culture of Air Force InnovationWe continue to track the thought leadership of Will Roper, former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics. Roper is currently on the advisory committee for the Defense Innovation Board and, since he founded the company in 2022, is the CEO of Istari, Inc. Roper recently co-authored a white paper with… Read more: The Future of Federal Research and Development and the Culture of Air Force Innovation
- Building Industrial Metaverse Infrastructure in Your OrganizationWe continue our analysis of the categories and subsectors of the expanded metaverse, as Siemens, along with industry and media partners the MIT Technology Review, NVIDIA, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Bentley Systems, and Youl Systems Inc., explores how businesses can assemble the industrial metaverse. Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and… Read more: Building Industrial Metaverse Infrastructure in Your Organization
- Hardware-Level Zero Trust and Quantifiable Assurance are the Future of Compute and the Global IT Supply ChainIn a fusion of a sub-theme from the OODA Almanac 2024 – Computation is the Ultimate First Principle – and several of the implications from our OODA Stratigame – Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption, one thing has become clear: proper national security at the technological level will only be achieved through… Read more: Hardware-Level Zero Trust and Quantifiable Assurance are the Future of Compute and the Global IT Supply Chain
- OODA Loop on the Road: Field Research at Several Notable Spring 2024 ConferencesThe OODA Loop Team has been on the road this week, as we were invited by a few “communities of practice” to attend their annual conferences. Some are industry sectors, while most cut across all industry sectors and point to the future of exponential technology convergences of many sorts. We endeavored to get out into… Read more: OODA Loop on the Road: Field Research at Several Notable Spring 2024 Conferences
- Beijing Takes Another Jab at U.S. Cyber OperationsRecently, China’s Cybersecurity Industry Alliance (CCIA) published a report in an effort to further expose the suspected hegemonic practices and “bullying” behavior of the United States in cyberspace.
- NSA Artificial Intelligence Security Center – and Global IC Partners – on Deploying Secure AI SystemsThis Cybersecurity Information Sheet (CSI) is the first of its kind release from the NSA Artificial Intelligence Security Center (AISC) – “intended to support National Security System owners and Defense Industrial Base companies that will be deploying and operating AI systems designed and developed by an external entity…while intended for national security purposes, the guidance… Read more: NSA Artificial Intelligence Security Center – and Global IC Partners – on Deploying Secure AI Systems
- Harnessing the OODA Loop in Business: Insights from Jamie Dimon’s Leadership at JPMorgan ChaseIn his annual letter to shareholders CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon extolled the virtues of the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop decision-making model developed by military strategist John Boyd.
- The State of the Space Industrial BaseAlong with the two other baseline strategic documents we have featured here – Space Force’s Inaugural U.S. Commercial Space Strategy and DoD’s Commercial Space Integration Strategy – the State of the Space Industrial Base (SSIB) 2023 completes this triumvirate of strategic level setting documents – positioning the commercial space industry and space-based national security for… Read more: The State of the Space Industrial Base
- Speculative Design: Electric Vertical Take-Off/Landing (“eVTOLs”) Air Taxis – aka Flying Cars – are Taking OffAccording to the Executive Chairman of the X-Prize Foundation and Singularity University Executive Founder Peter H. Diamandis, years of speculative design of (the long-promised by science-fiction) flying car will become a reality by 2030 – possibly as early as 2025. Details here.
- China’s Military Reorganization Keeps Pace With the TimesIn a major April 2024 restructuring of its armed forces, China dissolved its Strategic Support Force (SSF), first created in 2015 and that served as the military’s centralized hub for all cyber operations, as well as other capabilities such as psychological warfare and information-enabled activities. The SSF reported to China’s Central Military Commission and led two branches:… Read more: China’s Military Reorganization Keeps Pace With the Times
- Houston, We Have a Problem… (Let’s Get to Solving It)A few decades from now, historians might conclude we are living in a Second Gilded Age. In a bit of a repeat of the 1890s, our mid-2020s seems to be an era where technological advancements have triggered fear and uncertainty about what the application of those technologies means for workers, industries, and nations.
- Social Engineering Remains the Coin of the Realm for Ransomware Gangs (or APTs- Advanced Persistent Threats)We have been on the social engineering (aka Human Risk Management or Human Engineering beat for a while – providing resources to our readership and the OODA Network regularly. Those resources are compiled here for individuals or organizations who want to follow up on some of the ideas presented in the 60 Minutes segment. We encourage follow-up and reviewing your threat vectors and vulnerabilities vis a vis the social engineering threat. There are plenty of pragmatic implementation resources here – especially in the OODAcast conversations with OODA affiliates who are the experts on the social engineering threat), which are a call to action.
- What Next? The Passage of U.S. Aid to Ukraine, Israel, and TaiwanHere are experts from the Wilson Center and EU policymakers reacting to the recent approval of supplemental military aid from the U.S. to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan—all in the context of the future of the U.S. defense industrial base debate.
- “Earth-2”: AI Plus Climate Data Equals the Ultimate Digital Twin ProjectThe concept of a digital twin of the Earth’s climate, leveraging geospatial data, climate sensors, and artificial intelligence (AI), presents a transformative potential for our understanding and management of the planet’s climate system. This digital twin, a high-fidelity virtual model of Earth’s climate, could revolutionize our approach to environmental stewardship, disaster response, and climate resilience. Details here.
- Will Military Aid Abroad Accelerate the Disintermediation of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base?Before and after the recent passage of military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, many credible outlets offered wide-ranging perspectives on the impact on the domestic U.S. defense industrial base by continued aid to the world from the “Arsenal of Democracy.” Details here.
- The UN Security Council Has a Role in International CybersecurityIn early April 2024, the United Nations’ (UN) Security Council held a meeting on the “Evolving Cyber Threat Landscape and Its Implications for the Maintenance of International Peace and Security.”
- Biologically Engineered DNA Data Storage will be a Layer of the Convergent Exponential Tech StackWe argue that the bioeconomy will lead all industry sectors into a fascinating (and anything but fear-inducing) future filled with abundance and promise – including DNA-based data storage capabilities. DNA Data Storage? Yes. Let’s start there.
- The Philosophers’ Code: Enhancing Cybersecurity Strategy with Timeless WisdomThe teachings of ancient philosophers can provide actionable insights in the rapidly evolving field of cybersecurity. It might seem surprising at first, but the wisdom of history’s great thinkers offers perspectives that are profoundly relevant to today’s digital security challenges.
- Moody’s on the “Recoding” of Entire Industries, Including The Financial Sector, by the Convergence of AI and the BlockchainA recent headline from Moody’s reads “Convergence of AI and blockchain could recode multiple industries.” The notion of the “recoding” of an industry sector is compelling – as it suggests a more nuanced, code-level transformation of an industry sector (as opposed to just the disruption that accompanies disintermediation). We explore the nuances of the Moody’s report.
- Findings from the DEFCON31 AI Village Inaugural Generative AI Red Team ChallengeAs we head into the 2024 RSAC through the Defcon/BlackHat Conference jag, we look at the final report from the first-of-its-kind Generative AI Red Team Challenge, held last year in the AI Village at Defcon31. Find an overview of the event report here.
- The OODA Network Discusses Drone Countermeasures, Border Risk, and International Crime SyndicatesIn March, OODA Network Member John Sullivan shared with the network an overview of current threat vectors and strategic challenges at the border relative to the presence of various international crime syndicates in North America. He also shared his perspective on the primary topic of the monthly meeting – The Exponential Pace of Technological Change. Find a summary of this invaluable global risk briefing here.
- DoD’s Unprecedented Commitment to a “Commercial Space Integration Strategy”The much anticipated “Commercial Space Integration Strategy” was released by the Department of Defense in early April 2024 (weeks before the release of the Space Force Commercial Space Strategy). The DoD strategy document outlines the “broad guidance for where and why the Pentagon will try to increase its use of commercial space technologies.” Details here.
- Continued AI Integration Drives the Race Between Attackers and DefendersAI versus AI will be the central drama, but the outcome depends profoundly on human choices around how intelligently we govern this technology.
- Is Your Board of Directors Integrating AI Governance into its Corporate Oversight and Disclosure Efforts?We found a compelling ISS-Corporate memorandum – AI and Board Of Directors Oversight: AI Governance Appears on Corporate Radar – authored by Veronica Nikitas. The report provides a robust quantitative framework for this topic’s core issues. In this post, you will find the key takeaways and excerpts from the report, as well as a forward-thinking conclusion by the author.
- What Does the Nuclear Age Teach Us About Managing Escalation?RAND researchers explore the “lessons and challenges from three historical crises between nuclear-armed powers” when managing the potential escalation of nuclear conflict—insights apropos to the tinderbox that is the Middle East and ongoing threats of nuclear escalation in Europe by Russian President Vladamir Putin. A summary of the RAND report and insights can be found here.
- In the Wake of the Iranian Drone Swarm and Ballistic Missile Attack on Israel: Future ScenariosThe war in Ukraine was the beginning, and the Iranian attack on Israel by a swarm of over 200 drones and ballistic missiles is now the tail end of an elongated inflection point – propelling geopolitics into a new era of 21st Century “Algorithmic Warfare.” A tick-tock of developments and links to live update resources in Israel can be found here – followed by an OODA Loop Scenario analysis.
- Space Force Releases the Much Anticipated Inaugural U.S. Commercial Space StrategyLast week, the U.S. Space Force (USSF) released the much-anticipated “Commercial Space Strategy”—the first such strategy released by the USSF—which commits to realigning funding and prioritizing commercial space opportunities. Details from the USSF CSS are available here.
- Perspectives on AI Hallucinations: Code Libraries and Developer EcosystemsOur hypothesis on AI Hallucinations is based on a quote from the OODAcon 2024 panel, “The Next Generative AI Surprise: “Artificial Intelligence hallucinations may sometimes provide an output that is a very creative interpretation of something or an edge case that proves useful.” With that framing in mind, the following is the first installment in our survey of differing perspectives on the threats and opportunities created by AI hallucinations.
- After the Impact of the Change/United Healthcare Ransomware Attack, HHS Bolsters Healthcare Cybersecurity InitiativesThe ransomware epidemic is starting to feel like one continuous incident report and a growing national security concern – not to mention the dormant “ghost in the machine” capabilities that have already been positioned in the U.S. internetwork (by nation-state and non-nation-state players alike) as part of a strategic plan for a larger act of… Read more: After the Impact of the Change/United Healthcare Ransomware Attack, HHS Bolsters Healthcare Cybersecurity Initiatives
- The Water Sector Is Being Threatened. That Should Worry EveryoneIn December 2023, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) issued an alert regarding the activities of Iranian cyber actors dubbed “CyberAv3ngers” believed to be tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The alert cited that this group… Read more: The Water Sector Is Being Threatened. That Should Worry Everyone
- What Can Your Organization Learn from the Use Cases of Large Language Models in Medicine and Healthcare?Other industry sectors should keep a close eye on the critical milestones and pitfalls of the biotech/healthcare space – with an eye toward what platform, product, service innovations, and architectures may have a potable value proposition within your industry. The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI) is doing great work fielding research in healthcare with quantifiable results that offer a window into AI as a general applied technology in this vast but shallow early implementation phase of “AI for the enterprise.” Details here.
- Quantum Day (aka “Q-Day”) is a Gray Rhino Stridently Galloping Straight at Your Organization“Q-Day” is a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power (also known as “Quantum Supremacy”). Find a breakdown, analysis, and future scenarios here.
- Spatial AI is the Future of Human-Computer Interaction and the MetaverseRegular readers of the OODA Loop know that we cover exponential technologies daily and we expect disproportionate disruption when these technologies start to converge. In this post, we explore AI + an expanded working definition (with subcategories) of what is broadly considered “the metaverse” + blockchain technology as an example of the exponential tech stack starting to converge (a subtheme of the OODA Almanac 2024).
- After His Presidential Re-election Victory, Putin Escalates Drone, Cyber and Disinformation OffensivesWith Vladamir Putin’s “landslide” victory in the Russian Presidential election in the rearview mirror (the victory extends Putin’s autocratic rule through 2030, which will be his 18th year as president), we provide some situational awareness RE: Putin’s ongoing, global cyber and disinformation offensives – and the drone swarm attacks that are proving the 21st Century organizing principle of his barbaric land war in Ukraine, the first in mainland Europe since WWII.
- Widespread European Farmer Protests, Some Violent, are Another Dispatch from The Ministry for the FutureIn this, the fifth installment in our “Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future” series, we take the time to do more of a deep dive into the speculative fiction/science fiction novel that inspired this eponymous series of posts – followed by details of the farmer protest that have broken out all over the EU in the last year or so. In the What Next? section of this post: Utopian and dystopian OODA Loop scenarios based on the searing, completely plausible narrative of our potential global future that is so powerfully rendered in the pages of “The Ministry for the Future.”
- Government Agencies are in the Fight Against Chinese Human Targeting and Cyber Espionage. Will it be Enough?Every year, we make a point of returning to a few social psychology, organizational behavior, and human behavioral psychology factors, namely how your organization should integrate the threat of human targeting and social engineering into your overall company culture and cybersecurity strategy. This post is an update from the frontlines – with recent offensive and defensive tactics from the Justice Department, the Department of the Treasury, the State Department, and a CISA/FBI/NSA joint advisory are summarized here, followed by a scenario analysis.
- The Technology of Ethereum Will revolutionize how businesses are run and enable more economic freedom for individualsThis is a review of what I see of the technology in the Ethereum ecosystem and some of the use cases it addresses today. It is designed to help leaders and decision-makers conceptualize what the functionality of Ethereum means for other technologies and for business operations (I look forward to discussions on this in our… Read more: The Technology of Ethereum Will revolutionize how businesses are run and enable more economic freedom for individuals
- A 4X Increase in Disinformation in Africa is Fundamentally DestabilizingA new report from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that “disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly fourfold since 2022, triggering destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences.” Find a summary and analysis of the report here.
- Are Chinese-Made Ship-to-Shore Cranes at U.S. Ports a Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability?The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) (made into law in December 2022) included some specific military-related cybersecurity provisions, including a required study of cybersecurity and national security threats posed by foreign-manufactured cranes at United States ports” to assess whether foreign manufactured cranes at United States ports pose cybersecurity or national security threats.” The study was completed late last year – and the response to the findings has sparked global controversy and debate. Details here.
- The March 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting: The Global and Domestic Impacts of the Exponential Pace of Technological ChangeAt the March 2024 OODA Network Member Meeting – which was held on Friday, March 15, 2024 – Four categories were discussed as framing for the discussion: The speed with which artificial intelligence changes are happening; Geopolitical conflict and crisis issues; Domestic issues that are at times being underreported; and the general march of technology at exponential speed.
- Undersea Communications Cables and the Seabed Continue to Evolve as Threat Vectors and Contested ArenasBack in March 2023, we provided an analysis of “Undersea Telecommunications Cables and the Seabed as Geopolitical Contested Arenas” which, at the time, we framed relative to a great power competition with China: “Along with Africa and the Arctic, add the growing tensions between the U.S. and China about undersea cable deployment and seabed warfare to your geopolitical tracking, risk awareness, and strategic impacts for your business or organization.” Enter the Houthis – who allegedly have opened an undersea-based front in the conflict in the Middle East. Details here.
- Swarm Intelligence and Network Swarms: Future ScenariosThe concept of network swarms, particularly in the context of modern conflict and security, represents a fascinating and somewhat disorientating evolution in the dynamics of warfare and strategic operations. The implications of swarm intelligence also extend beyond these immediate scenarios in technology and defense. They challenge our traditional notions of intelligence, control, and organization, suggesting that in certain contexts, decentralized and distributed approaches can outperform centralized and hierarchical ones. Find our analysis here.
- Wondering if we are living in a simulation? If we are it is probably based on NVIDIAWe Are Living In A Simulation That Runs On NVIDIA Already a subscriber? Sign In. Subscribe to read this article and all other premium research and analysis. Subscribers receive: Exclusive Content Access: Research and expert driven analysis to inform your decision-making. Over ten thousand articles on disruptive technologies, cybersecurity, geo-political risk, and national security technology… Read more: Wondering if we are living in a simulation? If we are it is probably based on NVIDIA
- The Interim Report of the U.S. National Security Commission on Emerging BiotechnologyThe U.S. National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology publicly released its first report in January of this year – with ideas and recommendations “they will be advancing throughout 2024…culminating in a comprehensive report to Congress in December 2024.” Find a summary and analysis of the interim report here.