Ministry for the Future Dispatch #7: "Scorching Hot and Bone Dry"

Ministry for the Future, DISPATCH #7 – Denver, Colorado, Tuesday, July 30, 2024: While attending SIGGRAPH 2024, the OODA Loop team awoke to local newscasts responsibly reporting – and refreshingly not catastrophizing – the exponential metrics of a wildfire that had doubled in size overnight. The proximity to the Denver Metro Area – within 20 miles – newscasters were reporting as ‘unprecedented.’ The Quarry Fire, as the conflagration is now known, remains – four days in – at 0% containment and is one of four wildfires “burning throughout Colorado this week as the state continues to grapple with a prolonged stretch of dry, hot weather.”

Jefferson County Officials Give Update on Quarry Fire (August 1, 2024): “We’re in for a Long Battle”

Investigators believe Quarry Fire in Jefferson County was human-caused

There are no reports of injuries or structure damage in the fire burning in the area of Deer Creek Canyon Road.

An arson investigation is underway for the Quarry Fire burning near Deer Creek Canyon, which has grown to 550 acres, the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office said Friday afternoon. The fire started Tuesday night in the area of Deer Creek Canyon Road just west of Grizzly Drive. It was 0% contained as of Friday morning. There are no reports of injuries or structure damage. Kevin Bost, chief of criminal investigations for the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office, said they believe the fire was caused by humans. He was not able to share any additional details, citing an active investigation.

Investigators determined the fire started on Deer Creek just above Grizzly Trail in the switchback area. A Jefferson County sheriff’s deputy on routine patrol first spotted the fire around 9 p.m. Tuesday, the sheriff’s office said. Mark Techmeyer, spokesman for the sheriff’s office, said that the fire grew 100 acres by Friday morning but that it primarily grew in open space areas that needed fire mitigation. Firefighters have made progress building up handlines on the southern and eastern perimeter of the fire. Techmeyer said the terrain along the eastern perimeter was particularly difficult, meaning crews have had to spend more time digging lines in those areas. Two hotshot crews are planning to fly the eastern perimeter of the fire to look for other potential ways to attack the fire from that direction. Crews have worked to shore up lines to the north along Deer Creek Canyon Road, and it is now not anticipated that the fire will jump the road, which Techmeyer described as a worst-case scenario. Karlyn Tilley, a spokesperson for the sheriff’s office, said crews expect to make positive progress Friday but that there is some concern for potential afternoon storms bringing wind and lightning.

4 wildfires burning on Colorado Front Range: Here’s what you need to know

Four fires burning along the Front Range have forced thousands of people to evacuate from their homes.

COLORADO, USA — Several wildfires are burning throughout Colorado this week as the state continues to grapple with a prolonged stretch of dry, hot weather. The Alexander Mountain Fire in Larimer County, the Stone Canyon and Lake Shore fires in Boulder County, and the Quarry Fire in Jefferson County have prompted hundreds of evacuation and pre-evacuation notices for nearby residents.

What Next? “The Worst Cast Scenario is Not the Least Probable” and Interventions on Cognitive Biases

Local, Effective Public Health and Safety Communications Efforts

Relative to our collective experience of the spectrum of challenges – and crisis communications disasters – when communicating public health and safety to the general public in the era of COVID-19, misinformation, and a lack of trust in American institutions, Denver KUS-TV, Channel 9, had pre-produced TV broadcast segments, with live voice over scripts from the TV anchors – encouraging their viewership with the following communications framing:

The corporate provenance of Channel 9 is also interesting not only from a “splintering of the traditional media ecosystem” perspective but also from the perspective of just how much the effectiveness of the local emergency preparedness and crisis communications – by local affiliate KUS-TV Channel 9 – is a corporate strategy – mandated, top-down, from their parent company?:

KUSA (channel 9) is a television station in Denver, Colorado, United States, affiliated with NBC. It is owned by Tegna Inc. alongside MyNetworkTV affiliate KTVD (channel 20). The two stations share studios on East Speer Boulevard in Denver’s Speer neighborhood; KUSA’s transmitter is located atop Lookout Mountain, near Golden. In addition to its main studios, the station also operates a secondary studio and news bureau on Canyon Avenue in Fort Collins. (Wikipedia)

Tegna Inc. (stylized in all caps as TEGNA) is an American publicly traded broadcast, digital media, and marketing services company headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.^[3]^[4] It was created on June 29, 2015, when the Gannett Company split into two publicly traded companies. Tegna comprised the more profitable broadcast television and digital media divisions of the old Gannett, while Gannett’s publishing interests were spun off as a “new” company that retained the Gannett name. Tegna owns or operates 68 television stations in 54 markets and holds digital media properties.

In terms of audience reach, Tegna is the largest group owner of NBC-affiliated stations, ahead of Hearst Television and Sinclair Broadcast Group, and the fourth-largest group owner of ABC affiliates, behind Hearst, the E. W. Scripps Company, and Sinclair. Tegna also owns two digital multicast networks (True Crime Network, Quest). (Wikipedia)

“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”

Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people who make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. We try not to be blindly optimistic, however, and steer away from the Silicon Valley-fueled “techno-utopianism” that has us in trouble with some of the unintended consequences of the internet. OODA Network Member Dr. Lisa Porter describes it as” a risk-based approach that recognizes I am always making a tradeoff. And to do it with my eyes open.” We think that captures what we are trying to provide here daily. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we see it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our network members and their organizations. So, with that: Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.

The New Denver Normal

One 100-degree day per year was the old normal in Denver. The evidence is anecdotal – but based on general impressions of the air quality and conversations with transplants to the region/lifelong residents (slash taxi and Uber drivers), Denver now has a “new normal” relative to 5 to 8 years ago. There are now two solid summer months every year with air quality issues – primarily caused by smoke and ash-filled air flows from out-of-state megafires, predominantly from California – and regular heat advisories in the same summer timeframe every year as well.

Frequent, consecutive days with 100-degree temperatures and a heat index of 110 degrees are now the new normal.

In the post-COVID column, it felt like retail and restaurant ‘life’ in downtown Denver was still limping along to something resembling a post-pandemic recovery. The heat, smoke haze, and depressed downtown added up to a feeling that something was fundamentally different about the city and the region moving forward relative to trips to the city and region, say, ten or more years ago.

Further OODA Loop Resources

Previous Installments in our Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future Series:

A Dispatch from the Ministry for the Future: “Wet Bulb” Heat and Humidity Conditions in the U.S.

The Future of the Climate Crisis – Recent Impacts and Promising Innovation Strategies: While cyberwars may continue to take center stage in the global polycrisis, the climate crisis holds a pole position, arguably only threatened in its existential threat dominance by negative prognostications of the future impact of artificial intelligence. For now, the climate crisis continues to manifest in a very future, real-world manner – with recent quantifiable impacts of record and promising innovation strategies, some technological. Details here.

“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”: Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. We try not to be blindly optimistic, however, and steer away from the Silicon Valley-fueled “techno-utopianism” that has us in trouble with some of the unintended consequences of the internet. OODA Network Member Dr. Lisa Porter describes it as” a risk-based approach that recognizes I am always making a tradeoff. And to do it with my eyes open.” We think that captures what we are trying to provide here daily. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we see it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our network members and their organizations. So, with that: Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking

Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution

Track Technology-Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. Multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.

Planning for a Continuous Pandemic Landscape: COVID-19’s geopolitical repercussions are evident, with recent assessments pointing to China’s role in its spread. Regardless of the exact origins, the same conditions that allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic persist today. Therefore, businesses must be prepared for consistent health disruptions, implying that a substantial portion of the workforce might always operate remotely, even though face-to-face interactions remain vital for critical decisions. See: COVID Sensemaking

The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage