Where will artificial intelligence be in 2030? Will it live up to the hype—boosting economies, creating breakthrough medical treatments, simplifying everyday life and increasing our knowledge? Or are such forecasts overly optimistic: Will it fizzle out, or change the world for the worse? What about concerns that AI will eliminate millions of jobs, replace human relationships and challenge society with an onslaught of fake media? The Wall Street Journal asked a selection of experts from academia, business, consulting firms and think tanks to weigh in on what AI will be doing in 2030. Below are some predictions. Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly. Some experts suggest we may achieve artificial general intelligence—machines that can outperform humans in virtually every task—as soon as 2033. The implications are profound, potentially reshaping industries, economies and the very nature of work.
But there’s a crucial disconnect between technological advancement and mass adaptation by organizations and society. As scientist and futurist Roy Amara famously observed, “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” The year 2030 will likely put us right between the short- and long-run implications of AI. So despite AI’s lightning-fast technological progress, we shouldn’t expect to see immediate, sweeping global effects in the next few years. The integration of AI into our daily lives, workplaces and institutions will be gradual, as these things change much more slowly than technology does. As we navigate this dual-speed reality, we must prepare for a future where AI’s long-term effects surpass our current imaginations of what it can do—even as its short-term influence may fall short of the most ambitious predictions.
Full story : Experts from different fields opine on the future of artificial intelligence 5 years from now.
