As we stand on the precipice of a new era defined by rapid technological advancements, I find myself reflecting on the lessons of history and the challenges that lie ahead. Much like the (first?) Gilded Age that the United States experienced from the late 1870s to the late 1890s, our current times are marked by both unprecedented opportunities and significant uncertainties.
Here are five key points that I believe are crucial for senior executive leaders in both the private and public sectors to consider as we navigate this complex landscape, drawing insights the findings of the bipartisan National Security Commission for the Review of the Research and Development Programs of the U.S. Intelligence Community written almost a decade ago (yet surprisingly still relevant), from a more recent paper written on “National Security in the Digital Age” by Elizabeth Kimber who previously served as Deputy Director of the CIA for Operations and Acting Deputy Director, as well as my own reflections written previously with OODA Loop on adapting to future challenges both with cultivating an adaptive Defense-focused workforce and problem solving relative to AI’s impacts on national security, law enforcement, and civil societies.
- Recognize the Dual Nature of Emerging Technologies
The digital revolution is a double-edged sword for national security. While innovations in AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing offer powerful tools to combat threats, they also introduce potential risks. Senior executives must recognize the dual-use nature of these technologies and develop strategies that leverage their benefits while mitigating associated threats. This requires a nuanced understanding of how these technologies can be both a boon and a bane.
- Emerging Disruptive Technologies: The Commission highlighted the need for the Intelligence Community (IC) to operate in a dynamic environment against sophisticated threats. Technologies such as AI and quantum computing can enhance national security capabilities but also pose risks if misused. In 2025, the U.S. should focus on establishing robust frameworks for the ethical use of these technologies, ensuring they are developed and deployed responsibly. Beth Kimber also emphasizes the importance of integrating these technologies into national security strategies to maintain a competitive edge.
- AI’s Dual-Use Nature: AI can be used for both beneficial and harmful purposes. While it can improve decision-making and operational efficiency, it can also be weaponized or used for surveillance, raising ethical and security concerns. The next Presidential Administration should prioritize creating international norms and agreements to govern the use of AI, akin to arms control treaties, to prevent misuse. Kimber suggests that the U.S. should lead global efforts to establish these norms, ensuring that AI development aligns with democratic values.
- Address Cyber Threats and Information Warfare
Cyber threats and information warfare are among the top challenges to national security today. As highlighted by Beth Kimber, the geopolitical dynamics of the gray zone mean that conflicts are increasingly fought through cyberattacks and influence campaigns. Executives must prioritize cybersecurity measures and develop robust defenses against these non-traditional threats to safeguard critical infrastructure and maintain public trust.
- Cyber Threats: The Commission emphasized the importance of R&D programs in equipping the IC with capabilities to counter sophisticated threats. Investing in advanced threat detection and response systems is crucial to enhancing cybersecurity. In 2025, the U.S. should enhance public-private partnerships to improve cybersecurity resilience and response capabilities. Kimber advocates for a comprehensive approach that includes both technological solutions and policy measures to address these threats effectively.
- Information Warfare: The spread of misinformation and disinformation can undermine public trust and destabilize societies. Organizations must develop strategies to counteract these threats, such as promoting awareness of attempts to manipulate media by foreign actors and finding ways to empower individuals to assess more authentic information sources and reporting. The next administration should consider establishing a dedicated task force to combat foreign media manipulation and protect democratic processes. Kimber highlights the need for coordinated efforts across government agencies and with international partners to tackle information warfare.
- Leverage Data and Advanced Analytics
The intelligence community faces challenges related to data overload and analysis. To address this, it is essential to leverage sophisticated data management tools and advanced analytics, such as machine learning, to enhance intelligence-gathering and decision-making capabilities. By improving how data is processed and analyzed, organizations can gain valuable insights and make informed decisions in a timely manner.
- Data Overload and Analysis Challenges: The Commission’s findings underscore the need for advanced R&D to process and interpret vast amounts of data effectively, providing actionable insights for decision-makers. In 2025, the U.S. should invest in developing AI-driven analytics platforms that can handle large datasets and provide real-time intelligence. Kimber suggests that enhancing data interoperability and accessibility across agencies will be crucial for maximizing the utility of data analytics.
- Leveraging Data Management Tools: Implementing sophisticated data management tools can improve data integration, storage, and retrieval, enabling organizations to access the information they need when they need it. The next administration should prioritize funding for data infrastructure improvements and encourage cross-agency data sharing. Kimber emphasizes the importance of fostering a data-driven culture within the intelligence community to fully leverage these capabilities.
- Foster Strategic Rivalry Preparedness
The quest for technological dominance is at the forefront of strategic rivalry, particularly with nations like China. Executives must be prepared for this intense competition by investing in innovation and maintaining a technological edge. This involves supporting rapid prototyping and innovation initiatives, as well as fostering partnerships that enhance national security capabilities.
- Competition with China: The Commission noted the importance of maintaining a technological edge in the face of strategic rivals. Investing in R&D and protecting intellectual property are critical to sustaining U.S. leadership. In 2025, the U.S. should enhance its strategic alliances and collaborate with allies to counterbalance China’s technological advancements. Whomever is the next U.S. President should be ready for the very real possibility that China might land humans on the Moon before the United States is able to return with humans on the Moon. Kimber recommends that the U.S. strengthen its innovation ecosystem by supporting startups and fostering collaboration between government, academia, and industry.
- Strategic Investments: Leveraging Other Transaction Authorities (OTAs) and agile acquisition methodologies can accelerate the adoption of game-changing technologies advanced by the private sector, ensuring the U.S. stays ahead in technological capabilities. At the same time, we also need places to operationalize at speed – more than just financial investments to include investments of time, talent, and material to “do the next” at a speed and scale to inform the U.S.’s national security posture. The next administration should streamline acquisition processes to encourage innovation and reduce bureaucratic delays. Kimber suggests that the U.S. should focus on building a resilient supply chain to support these strategic investments.
- Implement Systems-Level Solutions for Workforce Challenges
Workforce shortages present a significant barrier to leveraging emerging technologies effectively. To address this, organizations should focus on creating flexible working conditions and improving the employee experience to attract and retain talent. Additionally, fostering a culture of continuous learning and development can help build a resilient workforce capable of adapting to the evolving technological landscape.
- Workforce Shortages: The Commission’s review of R&D programs highlights the need for skilled personnel to leverage emerging technologies. Investing in training and development programs is essential to closing skill gaps. In 2025, the U.S. should launch initiatives like the NSA’s Future-Ready Workforce Initiative to recruit, retain, and return skilled professionals. Kimber emphasizes the importance of developing a diverse and inclusive workforce to drive innovation and address national security challenges.
- Flexible Working Conditions: Offering remote or hybrid work options can improve employee satisfaction and retention, helping organizations attract and retain top talent in a competitive job market. The next administration should promote policies that support work-life balance and adaptability in the workforce. Kimber suggests that the U.S. should invest in digital infrastructure to support these flexible working arrangements and enhance productivity.
In conclusion, while the digital age presents significant challenges, it also offers incredible opportunities for those willing to embrace change with foresight and responsibility. We need to tackle these challenges holistically, which will require robust partnerships involving both private and public sector activities focused on improving national security to meet our current and future challenges. By adopting a systems-level approach and fostering collaboration, we can navigate this new era with confidence and ensure a secure and prosperous future for all.
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Author’s additional postscript: I encourage everyone to join OODAcon 2024 on November 6th aptly focused on convergence of these issues as well as technological capabilities. This event will feature Senior Leaders and positive #ChangeAgents who are actively tackling these important challenges and more. It’s an opportunity to engage with thought leaders, share insights, and collaborate on strategies to navigate the complexities of our physical-meets-digital age, increasing gray zone conflicts globally, and renewed geopolitical stressors impacting both private and public sector organizations.
Dr. David Bray is both a Distinguished Fellow and Chair of the Accelerator at the non-partisan Henry L. Stimson Center. He is also a Distinguished Fellow with the Business Executives for National Security, Fellow with the National Academy of Public Administration, as well as a CEO and transformation leader for different “under the radar” tech and data ventures. David has received both the Joint Civilian Service Commendation Award as well as the National Intelligence Exceptional Achievement Medal and served as the Executive Director for two National Commissions involving advances in technology, data, national security, and civil societies. He has been a fan of Bob Gourley and OODA Loop ever since Bob and he did a panel in 2008 together on what advances in new and disruptive technologies mean for the U.S. Intelligence Community.
