On December 16, terrorists were officially given permission by Osama bin Laden to attack the Saud family and Saudi government targets as well as oil installations, targets that he previously discouraged (WAR Report). In 2005, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will attack these targets with a vengeance. These attacks will be more successful than those on Western targets in Saudi Arabia because they are not nearly as hardened and are much more plentiful in the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia, unhampered by a bill of rights or other such constraints, will crack down with impunity on anyone believed to be associated with terrorism. This will have mixed results. Although iron-fisted campaigns against terrorists will lead to the death or capture of more dangerous individuals, it will also provoke more attacks against the Saud family and security forces, as terrorists now have the license from their leader to do so. As they have done in the past, the Saud royal family can be expected to blame the violence on Israel , painting a picture of Zionists trying to undermine a strong Arab government by attacking it under the guise of al-Qaeda. Thus, the Kingdom will continue to try to deflect the problem rather than deal with its root causes (WAR Report).

Such problems may be spread to neighboring Gulf States also. Kuwait is especially vulnerable. It is known to send the US more of its oil exports than any other country, and it has also been used as a base of operations and a stopover for people and materials headed to support operations in Iraq . Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have avoided, thus far, being centers of terrorist operations, partially because their indigenous populations are more progressive and pro-Western than others, and less supportive of al-Qaeda and less fundamentalist in the religious sense in general. However, because of factors like the large populations of Westerners in these countries (the US Navy?s Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, for instance), and the ease of travel for other Arabs to these countries, especially other Gulf Arabs, the thus far peaceful countries are at risk of falling victim to al-Qaeda?s designs. Bahrain is located just 30 minutes from al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia; a number of Westerners who lived in compounds in al-Khobar relocated to Bahrain following the spring terrorist attack there . The tiny island Kingdom?s saving grace is that it is separated from the mainland by a causeway, and Bahraini authorities have reportedly been diligent about inspecting all vehicles crossing into the country from Saudi Arabia. Still, it would not be impossible to smuggle arms or explosives into the country if they were well-hidden in a vehicle or were brought in by boat. In the UAE, Dubai?s shipping industry is particularly vulnerable (WAR Report).