Disorder within the Palestinian Territories is rising, and Palestinians have grown frustrated with the Hamas-led government’s inability to provide security and social services. These developments in the Palestinian Territories could soon lead to the next US policy goal: the removal of Hamas from power.
US policy, along with its partners in the Quartet (Russia , EU, UN), was designed to force Hamas to reverse core tenants of its anti-Israeli ideology or face governing the Territories without massive international aid . Predictably, Hamas chose the latter, and the economic and humanitarian situation for Palestinians has worsened steadily. The next objective of US policy is to have Palestinians demand a new government and return a secular and hopefully reformed Fatah to power that will work toward peace with Israel .
Therefore, success for US policy toward the Palestinian Authority (PA) will come at the short-term expense of Palestinians but eventually provide long-term stability for the region. It is a dangerous and risky proposition whose ultimate result remains uncertain.
A Frustrated Populace
Unable to provide social services and paychecks, the bankrupt Hamas-led PA is governing an increasingly restive populace. With approximately 140,000 citizens on the PA bankroll, the majority of the population is reliant on government salaries that have not been paid for upward of six months. In response, members of the PA security services have stormed government buildings demanding paychecks, and the civil servants union, comprised of key professionals such as 37,000 teachers and 25,000 health workers, has gone on strike. Moreover, unemployment and violent factional rivalry has led to an increase in crime, undermining the government’s ability to provide security for the greater community.
The Quartet has prevented the unenviable situation of having Iran or wealthy Arab countries sympathetic to Hamas strengthen influence in the Territories by replacing western aid. The threat of economic sanctions from the EU and US against banks operating in the region has limited the means to transfer funds to the Palestinian Authority, leaving the Hamas led-government economically isolated.
The state of disorder has forced the Hamas leadership to consider moderating its political ideology and joining Fatah in a unity government that would meet the Quartet’s standards and lead to a resumption of aid. However, negotiations between the two rival political organizations have failed to produce an agreement. Furthermore, the spokesman for the Hamas government, Ghazi Hamad, recently published an article urging Palestinians to stop blaming Israel for their problems and to review their own behavior. The rare display of communal self-criticism also questioned the utility of militant groups provoking Israel with rocket fire and bemoaned that “Gaza is suffering under the yoke of anarchy and the swords of thugs” (source).
Israel Heightens Pressure on the PA
The Israeli military campaign into Gaza has also played a dramatic role in undermining the ability of Hamas to govern, greatly exacerbating the effect of the Quartet’s aid suspension. In response to persistent rocket fire and a deadly cross-border attack , Israeli forces have arrested Hamas government officials, have closed border crossings, have launched military ground incursions and over 250 air strikes in Gaza, destroying homes, government buildings, and a vital power plant. Gaza has been virtually shut down, operating on only 6-8 hours of electricity and sporadic water service; the UN estimates 80% of the populace is living in poverty.
After Hamas?
Enabling conditions that turn Palestinians against Hamas provides a strategic opportunity for US policy yet simultaneously helps create an extreme and untenable environment where radical ideology can flourish. US policy success ultimately lies in Fatah’s ability to resume effective leadership of the PA, yet there is little evidence Fatah can handle that responsibility or that most Palestinians view Fatah as an attractive alternative to Hamas. The “thugs,” which Ghazi Ahmad laments for terrorizing the Palestinian community, are primarily armed groups affiliated with Fatah. Moreover, the leadership of Fatah has proven unable or unwilling to prevent its armed wing?al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade–from firing Qassam rockets into Israel. Should Hamas be removed from power, the question of what comes afterward remains ominously open ended.
