Tensions remain high for the presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC; Country Profile). The country is now embroiled in the second round of elections, which began on October 14, between incumbent President Joseph Kabila and contender Jean-Pierre Bemba.
As discussed in these pages during the first round of elections , violence, “hostile campaigning,” and “political intolerance” are continuing to rise with supporters burning effigies and stoning vehicles of their opponents. More than 30 people were killed in Kinshasa in August alone in political violence. Rival supporters have clashed at rallies, and some Bemba supporters were escorted by police when Kabila musclemen attempted to prevent them from attending their candidate’s campaigns in Katanga and South Kivu in particular. Violence has been reported nationwide, especially in Mbuji Mayi, capital of Kasai Occidental Province, and the province’s west. However, Kinshasa (in the far southeast) has been relatively calm.
The candidates’ media outlets have also stoked political violence by trying to air “campaign adverts containing xenophobic messages and slander,” according to The High Media Authority, DRC’s media regulatory body. This ban is effective to facilitate calm during the contested electoral process and to avoid direct targeting of the media.
The growing tension has raised fears of a Balkanization of DRC in the years after the country’s five-year war that left four million people dead. Kabila fueled tensions by nominating two military leaders to his administration. Kabila won the first round of elections, which were the first free elections in over 40 years, with 40.8% of the vote, although insufficient to win outright, and Bemba garnered 20% of the vote. Despite the proof positive of a burgeoning democracy, both sides accuse the other of perpetuating violence, underscoring the country’s deep ethno-cultural rift.
Kabila’s Side
Kabila is popular in the Swahili-speaking east. Kabila has aligned himself with the son of the late dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, who Kabila’s father ousted in 1997. Kabila has also secured the support of the third place presidential contender, Antoine Gizenga. His alliance is a clear effort by Kabila to wrestle support from Bemba in the DRC’s west. Similarly, he is capitalizing on his wife’s cross-cultural heritage: her father was from the west, and her mother was from the east. According to a spokesman from Kabila’s camp, the Alliance for the Presidential Majority, “This tension is deliberately maintained by those who have no hope of winning the elections, who already know they have lost.” Kabila’s supporters contend that Bemba’s supporters have attacked key supporters. Ultimately, Kabila is likely to win.
Bemba’s Side
Bemba is popular in the Lingala-speaking west. In a notionally successful attempt to counter Kabila’s popularity, Bemba supporters, having formed the Union of the Nation coalition, have honed in on Kabila’s foreign roots?much of his youth was spent outside DRC and his interest in selling off the DRC’s assets to foreign mining firms–and on coordinating anti-Kabila parties. According to Bemba’s spokesman, “We have observed the intent to intimidate and discourage Bemba’s supporters from campaigning for him. We see this as political will to muzzle the press support of Bemba. The worst has to be avoided during the candidates’ campaigns.” Bemba’s television station, CCTV, in a Kabila stronghold, was attacked, and a transmitter was destroyed.
External Attention
The DRC’s neighbors are, too, watching the political situation unfold closely. Rwanda, which will look to the winner to help resolve the presence of Rwandan Liberation Democratic Front (FDLR, Group Profile) rebels in DRC, and Uganda, which seems likely to support Bemba, were intimately involved in a proxy war in the DRC from 1998-2003; six regional nations had military presence in the DRC at the time. Angola and Zimbabwe helped place Kabila into power after his father’s assassination in 2001; both countries?but Angola in particular–are likely to meddle should Kabila need their assistance. Kabila seems to have more regional support than former rebel Bemba does. European investors are also concerned about their assets, not only in DRC but throughout the entire subcontinent.
Conclusion
Rallies and demonstrations are anticipated in the lead-up to the vote, and the candidates will face off on October 26 in a televised debate. This is likely to spark partisan violence. Then, the second round of elections will take place three days later, on October 29. Neither contender has signed security guarantees of peace after the election results; however, Bemba’s camp has promised to, and Kabila’s camp would agree to safety and freedom of movement but not immunity for the loser. Regional players are bracing for an all-out war should the loser refuse to accept defeat. The EU has sent an additional 200 German troops to support the 17,600-strong UN peacekeeping effort during the election. The days surrounding the vote are likely to be violent, regardless of who wins in the end.