The October 30 air strike on a madrassa in the Bajaur district of the Afghanistan -Pakistan borderlands that was believed to be serving as a ?nucleus for all pro-al-Qaeda [Group Profile] and pro-Taliban [Group Profile] activities? will likely strengthen the currents of popular discontent and the threat from Islamist militant against Pakistan?s President Pervez Musharraf.
The air strike killed 83 people and provoked severe protest both against Musharraf and the military throughout the tribal areas and among Islamist and nationalist elements of Pakistani society. The recent suicide bombing that killed at least 41 Pakistani recruits on a military training ground in northwestern Pakistan is seen as a riposte against the military.
Musharraf has long balanced competing political pressures from the US and its allies and internal domestic sentiment and militant Islamist elements. The US and its allies have leant on Pakistan to crack down more forcefully on Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other Islamist militants in Pakistan?s tribal borderlands. The largely anti-US Pakistani society and Islamist elements are arrayed against Musharraf if he is perceived as America?s puppet or if he threatens Islamist militants in counterterrorism operations. Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other Islamist militants have long used the borderlands as refuge and a base of operations for planning, staging, and smuggling fighters and materiel for insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. This has contributed to the strengthening of insurgent forces in operations in Afghanistan. Following fitful counterterrorism operations by the Pakistani military in the tribal areas that had killed a number of civilians and served to strengthen solidarity with militants, Pakistan abruptly changed tact, signing in the past seven months two peace deals, including a controversial accord with the tribes in North Waziristan . The agreement was met with skepticism by Afghan and NATO officials but likely relieved pressure on militants in the area, allowing them to regroup and contributing to the strengthen of the Taliban-led insurgency. The provincial government of the tribal areas was poised to sign a similar accord in Bajaur, but the strike likely shattered prospects for any agreement in the near-term.
Reports suggest that Pakistan?s hand was forced by compelling US intelligence and pressure to act. Further, observers speculate that the attack may have been carried out by US assets, though Pakistan is unequivocal in claiming Pakistani forces carried out the strike. If it was Pakistan?s decision, it may signal a significant pivoting of Pakistan?s counterterrorism posture to a far more aggressive approach.
The strike has altered the status quo of the borderlands and the Islamist militant threat against Musharraf?s government and the Pakistani military. The likely near-term fallout of the strike is two fold:
? Likely giving pause to militants within the refuge of the tribal borderlands, eroding the sense of sanctuary, and disrupting operations in the near-term as groups are driven to ground, forced to mobilize and relocate, and take heightened operational security precautions; and
? Energizing Pakistani societal sentiment and militant Islamist elements to move against Musharraf who is perceived variously as either responsible or complicit in the attack or is otherwise powerless to resist foreign military incursions and, thus, unfit as the nation?s leader.
As Pakistan?s Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said following the suicide bombing, ?I am afraid this is a beginning of a new phase of terrorism in Pakistan. The terrorists are now pitched directly against our security forces.? This new phase may represent the early stages of a final reckoning between the Musharraf regime and the Islamist militants in his midst.