Failed Peace Talks
After two failed peace talks between the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the possibility of a concord between the two warring factions in the near future is highly unlikely. The ICU called off the first attempt at a peace negotiation on November 1, 2006, in Khartoum, Sudan for two reasons:
1.) The ICU wanted the Arab League alone to lead the peace talks, and
2.) The ICU would agree to engage in a dialogue only if Ethiopian troops would pull out of Somalia.
The TFG would only agree to meet in Khartoum if the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), headed by TFG-friendly Kenya , would co-chair the meeting.
The second attempt at a peace agreement was held 10 days later near the capital, Mogadishu. The speaker of the transitional parliament, Sharif Hassan Sheik Aden, (along with 67 of the 275 parliament members) signed a seven-item peace deal with ICU leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys that included continuing the UN arms embargo and withdrawing all foreign actors from the country. However, according to TFG President Abdullah Yusif Ahmed, the ?peace deal? was not authorized by the government and was, therefore, rejected (source).
Why Is It So Hard for the ICU and the TFG to Reach an Agreement?
The ICU does not feel like it has anything to lose when it comes to the negotiation table. The Islamic militia primarily smuggles its weapons and supplies from neighboring countries, like Eritrea , and from loyal terrorist groups, like al-Qaeda . Whether the ICU agrees to lift the UN arms embargo does little to its jihad against Ethiopia or its campaign to rule all of Somalia under Sharia?a law. The ICU supplies itself with weapons through loyal terrorist organizations and through Ethiopia?s enemy, Eritrea. The withdrawal of foreign actors from Somali territory would not harm the ICU?s plans. The vast majority of those fighting on the ICU side are Somalis, and their foreign counterparts are already in neighboring countries.
It is the TFG that has much to lose in the talks. Continuing the arms embargo would not be a good idea for the TFG because it would disable Somalia?s bordering countries, i.e. Ethiopia and Kenya, from assisting in the fight against the ICU. Likewise, withdrawing foreign troops from Somalia would leave the TFG vulnerable to ICU attacks without any effective means of retaliation or defense. The TFG is obliged to act legitimately if it is to be considered a legitimate government by the international community. This means that TFG will continue to proceed with caution and in accordance to its Western aid and assistance.
Outcome: ICU Moves North, Consolidating Power and Weapons
On November 12, just one day after the rejected peace deal, the ICU took over a major city, Bandiradley, in the semi-autonomous enclave of Puntland, approximately 430 miles north of Mogadishu (source). Puntland has not been in conflict with the ICU. President of Puntlant Adde Mosen Hersi neither strongly opposed the militia nor wholeheartedly supported it. According to Terrorism Research Center sources, residents of Puntland expressed their indifference toward the ICU in southern Somalia; however, most of them feel that if they were ever ?invaded? by one of ICU?s militia, they would fight back vehemently. This is precisely what happened.
The seizure of Bandiradley is a strategic move for the ICU because of the town?s proximity, roughly 70 miles, to Puntland?s capital, Galcayo. Not only is Bandiradley the northern region?s largest military base, but its location also makes it convenient for the ICU to seize the enclave?s capital. Capturing this town will most likely result in increased arms smuggling from the ICU?s northwestern ally, Eritrea, via Djibouti . Gaining control of northern Somalia will make it easier and faster for ICU loyalists and co-conspirators to maneuver between regions. In order to consolidate its power and strength, the ICU will likely continue advancing northward. The ICU is likely waiting until it has consolidated as much man power, supplies, and support as possible within all of Somalia before it moves its fight into neighboring countries, where ICU loyalists, like the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) (Group Profiles forthcoming), are waiting to be signaled for a full forced jihad against Ethiopia ? catapulting the whole Horn of Africa into war.