Al-Qaeda is the terrorist organization that will pose the greatest threat to US homeland security in 2007. TRC believes that al-Qaeda intends to carry out a significant attack within the US in 2007 and will continue to develop plans to move closer toward this goal. Al-Qaeda leadership and operatives will seek to expand their capabilities and acquire the means to perpetrate a large-scale strike.
TRC anticipates that al-Qaeda will continue to attempt to infiltrate operatives into the US through several methods in order to evade security measures and counterterrorism intelligence.
– Operatives will pose as students and will likely be individuals who have no known connection to terrorism.
– Al-Qaeda will use foreign nationals from countries that require little or no background screening due to US visa waiver or reciprocity programs.
– Al-Qaeda will use immigrant smuggling routes from Mexico .
Plans for a terrorist attack in the US will reflect al-Qaeda?s targeting preferences and will be designed to inflict mass casualties while negatively impacting the US economy. Mass transit remains a primary target for al-Qaeda, as do other symbolic targets, such as prominent monuments and government infrastructure.
Islamic radicalization of US citizens is a growing threat to the homeland. Although US Muslims are more integrated than in European countries, 2006 saw several arrests of US citizens providing material support and/or conspiring to aid terrorist organizations through various methods to include training in firearms and reconnaissance (Intel Report, WAR Report). 2007 will likely see several more similar cases. Particularly threatening is the ideology of Islamic extremism, as while many young Muslims have no contact with al-Qaeda, the Internet has presented the means for radical extremists around the world to reach young individuals and promote their beliefs and violent doctrine in the homeland. Additionally, pockets of extremism throughout the country allow for radicals to foster dialogue with youths in order to further spread their ideology.