Mexico’s war on drugs has produced a violent backlash resulting in the deaths of over 1,000 Mexicans since the program’s initiation in December 2006. The bloodshed has evolved from gang on gang violence to high profile attacks on police, military, and political officials. In a recent trend, the attacks have become more brazen. Increasingly, attacks are taking place during the day in highly populated tourist areas and murdered victims show evidence of torture or are wrapped in plastic. Decapitations and execution-style killings are becoming more frequent and cartels, mimicking Islamic militants, have begun to broadcast their killings online. Drug related murders are on track this year to surpass the 2006 total of 2,000.
Cartels on the Offensive: A Violent Backlash
The unrelenting violence has forced a shift in strategy for Calderon, who deployed over 24,000 federal police and soldiers in December 2006 to quell violence in the state of Michoacan and west coast tourist locations such as Acapulco and Tijuana (Previous Report). To complement the presence of soldiers and tanks in the region, President Calderon has ordered the development of an elite military special operations force capable of surgical strikes. Such a force would be used to counter the smaller crime cells found in cities or towns that are largely responsible for the recent surge of attacks, while the larger military would focus on conducting large-scale operations across territories.
While the Calderon administration insists the crackdown is working, US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) officials seem less enthusiastic. Calderon’s administration details the apprehension of more than 1,000 gunmen and destruction of millions of dollars in marijuana plants. Traffickers are more rapidly being extradited to the United States and police recently made the world’s biggest seizure of drug cash, US $207 million from a Mexico City mansion.
However, when compared to the first half of 2006, 20 percent more cocaine and 28 percent more marijuana has been seized in the past six months at the US border, which may indicate that though arrests, extraditions, and seizures are up, the flow of drugs north may actually be increasing. Calderon’s offensive may have disrupted the amount of drugs being produced in Mexico, as a production shift has been documented to other Central and South American countries. But the seizure numbers suggest drug trafficking routes through Mexico are still being utilized.
Profit Continues to Fuel Drug Trade
Mexican drug cartels earn an estimated US $10 billion to US $30 billion selling cocaine, heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine to the US market, rivaling Mexico’s revenues from oil exports and tourism. The ability of Mexico’s cartels to relocate their operations to neighboring countries has helped sustain production and it may also indicate that cartels have the ability to access near unlimited drug amounts. Mexican cartel leaders may have built up stockpiles to balance their loses during periods of transition. If this is the case, Calderon’s offensive may be less effective because cartels will be able to remain stable in the foreseeable future focusing on relocation of operations and on sustaining drug routes to the US.
Calderon’s administration suggests that increased violence, especially against military and political figures shows the cartels desperation. Its likely that cartels are simply able to focus on fighting Mexican forces and maintaining drug routes because their production facilities have moved abroad and surpluses are funding expenses when needed.
Future Depends on Economic Growth
As we previously, forecasted, Mexico has witnessed a short-term decrease in drug-related violence but is now confronted with a violent cartel backlash that will sustain through the foreseeable future. Unless, Calderon begins to supplement his military offensive with additional reforms to improve the livelihood of his citizenry, drug cartels will continue to threaten security throughout Mexico.