Highlights
-Poland and Czech Republic fear further delay or cancelation of missile defense
-Near-term delay on missile defense project likely in Eastern Europe
-United States using missile defense as bargaining chip with Russia
Future United States (US) plans to deploy a missile defense system in Europe are in question as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that Russian concerns would be taken into consideration over the fate of the system.
At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting in Krakow, Poland, Gates stated that President Obama and his administration have yet to decide on whether to continue former President George W. Bush’s plans to put missile interceptors in Poland and radar facilities in the Czech Republic. Both Poland and Czech Republic have become increasingly concerned over a potential reversal in US policy, especially as both countries supported the deployment of the system at the expense of souring relations with Russia.
In the near-term, Poland and the Czech Republic are likely to actively urge the Obama administration to move forward on the deployment of the missile shield, despite Russia’s qualms and concerns. However, we expect President Obama to take Russian concerns into more consideration than his predecessor. This will ultimately result in frustration among the US’s Eastern European allies, but may potentially allow Washington to further bargain with Russia over other key issues, such as ending support for Iran or increased support in Afghanistan.
Delay Causing Unease in Eastern Europe
Washington maintains the view that the planned missile sites are meant to defend the US and Europe from possible missile launches from rogue states, particularly North Korea or Iran. However, Russia is weary of the system and claims it would offset the traditional balance of power currently in place on the European continent.
Gates has insisted to the US’s anxious Eastern European allies that the country needs more time to finish its review of the project’s cost and technical feasibility. Poland in particular is urging the Obama administration to speed up the deployment of the missile defense system. The scenario that President Obama will scrap the project altogether is a growing concern in Poland and the Czech Republic. According to Andrzej Jodkowski, director of the Polish branch of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, “a lot of people put a stake in the project and they will feel disappointed, even betrayed, if it fails.”
It has become clear that both Poland and Czech Republic see the bases as insurance against future Russian aggression, hence their growing nervousness that the plan will be further postponed or canceled altogether. Eastern European leaders who support missile defense see the scraping of the project or further delay as a major concession to Moscow, as well as a tacit acceptance of the view that Russia should have more of a say in its traditional sphere of influence. Backing off the plan may undercut efforts to gain more European cooperation in addressing a missile threat from Iran and effectively deal with future security threats. The US will likely lose the confidence of several of its Eastern European allies, with some countries thinking twice before engaging in agreements with Washington over fears it would either back out or seek Moscow’s approval. In addition, there are domestic consequences in both Poland the Czech Republic, as the cancelation or further delay of the project is likely to have a negative impact on the two countries’ leaders and undercut their national support.
To save face on the domestic front and seek protection against potential future Russian aggression, Polish and Czech leaders will continue to pressure Gates and the Obama administration to move forward with the missile defense shield, as well as enhancing other aspects of military cooperation with Washington. Further delay or cancelation will have negative near-term effects on the US-Poland-Czech Republic partnership, but the two Eastern European countries rely so heavily on the US that the alliance will remain intact for the long-term.
Future of Missile Defense
Signs of a potential reversal of US policy regarding missile defense emerged at the Munich Security Council in early February 2009 where Vice President Joe Biden stated the system needs to be reliable and not detract from other security priorities. Following the meeting, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov responded by reiterating his threat of deploying missiles on Poland’s border if any US system is deployed.
While there is strong potential for the US to further delay deployment, or even cancel the plan altogether, it is unlikely Washington would completely leave Poland and the Czech Republic in the cold. We believe in the event the US does scrap the plan, it would take extreme measures to “save face” with Czech and Polish leaders. Such measures are likely to include increased military cooperation, such as the deployment of more advanced Patriot missile batteries to Poland. Other areas, including increased trade or scientific exchange, are also possible options.
Overall, walking away from the agreements reached between the countries in the past year is an unlikely option, as Washington would face a major trust and credibility problem throughout the world, particularly in Eastern Europe, an area the US deems important if it hopes to contain a resurgent Russia.
In the near-term, we believe the deployment of a missile defense shield on the European continent will be delayed. Negotiations between Russia and the US will continue, where the US will certainly use missile defense as a bargaining chip for other important issues. In the meantime, while the US is likely to take extraordinary measures to maintain the trust and its credibility with Poland the Czech Republic, the two countries’ security will remain linked to the US over the long-term because of their shared weariness over a resurgent Russia.