“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”

Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. It is this unique worldview and perspective you will experience firsthand at our upcoming OODA Community conference,  OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption.

It is also part of our job, however to position negative metrics and trends as part of our overall sensemaking on behalf of the membership – and try to achieve something resembling a stoic, balanced stance on most information we are handling at any given time. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we are seeing it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our member organizations.

So, with that:  Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.