The U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized its principal set of encryption algorithms designed to withstand cyberattacks from a quantum computer. Details here.
Why This Is Important
- NIST has released a final set of encryption tools designed to withstand the attack of a quantum computer.
- These post-quantum encryption standards secure a wide range of electronic information, from confidential email messages to e-commerce transactions that propel the modern economy.
- NIST is encouraging computer system administrators to begin transitioning to the new standards as soon as possible.
- The first post-quantum cryptographic algorithms were officially released [on August 13th], with more to come from ongoing public-private sector collaborations.
- [The] long-awaited standards from NIST are aimed at ensuring encrypted information stays encrypted in a future quantum age.
- “The release of the standards is a wake-up call to any organization that has been dragging its heels on quantum,” Duncan Jones, the head of quantum cybersecurity at vendor Quantinuum.
- “This is the starting gun for what may be the single largest overhaul of US government communication systems since the adoption of the Internet, as ordered by the President in National Security Memorandum 10,” said RAND scientist Edward Parker. “It will probably go on for decades and will cost billions of dollars: OMB estimated $7.1 billion over the next decade for civilian federal government agencies alone, not including national security systems. It will cost even more time and money from the private sector.”
- In the near term…there’s a lot of hard work ahead…to implement the algorithms announced [this week].
Encryption uses math to protect sensitive electronic information, including secure websites and emails. Widely used public-key encryption systems, which rely on math problems that computers find intractable, ensure that these websites and messages are inaccessible to unwelcome third parties. Before making the selections, NIST considered not only the security of the algorithms’ underlying math, but also the best applications for them.
The new standards are designed for two essential tasks for which encryption is typically used: general encryption, used to protect information exchanged across a public network; and digital signatures, used for identity authentication. NIST announced its selection of four algorithms — CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, Sphincs+ and FALCON — slated for standardization in 2022 and released draft versions of three of these standards in 2023. The fourth draft standard based on FALCON is planned for late 2024.
While there have been no substantive changes made to the standards since the draft versions, NIST has changed the algorithms’ names to specify the versions that appear in the three finalized standards, which are:
- Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) 203, intended as the primary standard for general encryption. Among its advantages are comparatively small encryption keys that two parties can exchange easily, as well as its speed of operation. The standard is based on the CRYSTALS-Kyber algorithm, which has been renamed ML-KEM, short for Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism.
- FIPS 204, intended as the primary standard for protecting digital signatures. The standard uses the CRYSTALS-Dilithium algorithm, which has been renamed ML-DSA, short for Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Algorithm.
- FIPS 205, also designed for digital signatures. The standard employs the Sphincs+ algorithm, which has been renamed SLH-DSA, short for Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Algorithm. The standard is based on a different math approach than ML-DSA, and it is intended as a backup method in case ML-DSA proves vulnerable.
Similarly, when the draft FIPS 206 standard built around FALCON is released, the algorithm will be dubbed FN-DSA, short for FFT (fast-Fourier transform) over NTRU-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Algorithm.
For the full NIST announcement, go to this link.
What Next?
https://oodaloop.com/archive/2024/08/26/executives-guide-navigating-the-impact-of-nists-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards/
Additional OODA Loop Resources
For our News Briefs and Original Analysis research efforts to date on this topic, go to OODA Loop | Quantum
OODA Almanac 2024 – Reorientation
The year 2024 will require a reorientation to new realities, largely driven by the acceleration of disruptive technologies grinding against the inertia of stale institutions that would rather we snack on the comfort food of the past than the buffet of the future. In past Almanacs we’ve talked about the rapid acceleration of technology and the power of exponentials and 2024 forward will mark the move from theoretical disruption to practical disruption. Those technologies we could not comprehend utilizing over the past five years will feel commonplace after the next five years.
Q Day Gray Rhino
Michele Wucker used the term “Gray Rhino” to describe a highly probable, high-impact but neglected threat. The highly probable, high impact and neglected threat of quantum computers breaking current asymmetric encryption meets this definition of a Gray Rhino. There is awareness of this threat in computer science circles and at R&D centers in governments and in pockets of the technology world. But for the most part big enterprises are choosing to ignore this threat. This is due in part to the many competing priorities for security spending. We do not see Q-Day happening in 2024 or even 2025, but we are seeing indications of Harvest Now Decrypt Later (HNDL) attacks where adversaries are stealing information today that will be broken later. This should be an impetus for organizations to move quicker to make today’s technologies quantum-safe from this Gray Rhino that is reaching charging speed.
Blockchain-based Credentials and the Expanded Threat Vector of Quantum Computing: The convergence of quantum computing and blockchain-based credentials presents significant opportunities and challenges. By proactively addressing the expanded threat vector and implementing robust security measures, we can ensure digital credentialing systems’ continued integrity and trustworthiness in a post-quantum world. How do you perceive the potential risks posed by the convergence of Quantum Computing and blockchain-based credentials in your specific context or industry?
OODA Loop Scenario Planning and Foresight Strategy
- Quantum Day (aka “Q-Day”) is a Gray Rhino Stridently Galloping Straight at Your Organization: “Q-Day” is a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power (also known as “Quantum Supremacy”). Find a breakdown, analysis, and future scenarios here.
- Reorient Your Organization: Scenarios Exploring a Quantum Attack on Critical U.S. Power Grid Infrastructure: The Hudson Institute report on “Risking Apocalypse? Quantum Computers and the US Power Grid” highlights the significant threat posed by potential quantum computer attacks on the US power grid. It emphasizes the vulnerability of the grid to such attacks, which could decrypt existing encryption systems and cause catastrophic outcomes. As we navigate the complexities of the quantum era, we used this scenario as a launching point for the formulation of additional scenarios for your strategic consideration, including recommendations and insights for your organization (garnered from the application of both scenario planning and systems thinking methodologies).
From Quantum Foundations to Universal Insights: Embracing First Principles Thinking for Better Understanding Of How Things Work: If you believe in first principles thinking, you need to know some basic facts about the quantum world.
Quantum Computing and Quantum Sensemaking: Quantum Computing, Quantum Security, and Quantum Sensing insights to drive your decision-making process. Quantum Computing and Quantum Security
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Businesses also confront unpredictable external threats besides traditional competitive challenges. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. Regardless of size, all organizations should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat
Track Technology Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
About the Author
Daniel Pereira
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
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