Sri Lankans have been living under various degrees of peace since 2002 when the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government finalized a truce. However, last week’s LTTE suicide attack and subsequent government retaliatory air strikes has threatened the cease fire. According to the cease fire monitoring team, the truce remains in tact. Ulf Henricsson , the Swedish team leader, reports: “Certainly, we still have a valid cease-fire. No one has abrogated it. [However, admittedly] what is going on is a serious violation of the agreement.”
Although Henricsson appears to be splitting definitional hairs, it is not without some merit or rationale. Recent actions by both the rebels and the government are veiled communications hidden behind plausibly deniable cover stories. The LTTE leadership cadre denies direct involvement in the suicide attack, settling rather to allow suspected front group, the High Security Zone Residents’ Liberation Force (HSZRLF) to claim responsibility. A message faxed to the press claims “HSZRLF feels that the LTTE is merely wasting time by maintaining a ceasefire.” The HSZRLF rose to prominence in the latter half of 2005 by targeting Sri Lanka Army (SLA) soldiers in knife and claymore mine attacks and subsequently promising to continue its armed campaign “until the last occupying soldier leaves the Tamil Homeland.” Upon closer inspection, however, the use of a suicide attacker appears beyond the means of the HSZRLF and, more likely, was ordered by the LTTE central command and conducted by one of its Black Tigress militants . The LTTE is more publicly linked to the last female suicide attack of July 2004 in Colombo as well as the assassination of Foreign Minister Kadirgamar in 2005 . Yet, by pointing the finger at the HSZRLF, the LTTE can still meekly claim it supports and adheres to Sweden’s brokered truce.
The spark igniting the recent round of escalated strikes and counter strikes is that an LTTE breakaway faction led by Col. Karuna is operating autonomously from SLA encampments and targeting LTTE outposts. Although Karuna seeks to join the peace treaty negotiations, neither the Sri Lankan government nor the LTTE are prepared to welcome the Karuna faction just yet. The LTTE seeks to be the sole Tamil negotiator, despite ostracizing certain geographical regions of the Tamil-administered territories, while the government does not wish to encourage a future proliferation of factions by setting the precedent of negotiating with Karuna. In the meantime, the government does, nonetheless, not mind if Tamil rebels are fighting among themselves as long as Karuna refrains from targeting security forces.
Finally, the government is keeping to its fa?ade that last week’s suicide attack was not the cause of the recent air strikes. Rather, SLA spokesmen claimed that government forces were responding in self defense after rebels shelled military positions. The recent violence over the past two weeks has resulted in over 130 deaths and threatens continuing tsunami relief efforts as well as international development efforts. Since Norway , Japan , the European Union, and the United States were scheduled to meet in Oslo on April 28, 2006, both the rebels and government are motivated both to keep at least a fig leaf reference to the 2002 truce and to keep pointing to outside forces as the source of friction. As such, continued sporadic strikes and counterstrikes can be expected for the foreseeable future, but no outright repudiation of the cease fire is anticipated.