: Last week for the first time, al-Sahab Institute for Media Productions issued recordings of speeches by Osama bin Laden on consecutive days, June 30 and July 1. On June 30, Bin Laden eulogized the slain Amir of al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers , Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi. The next day, a second statement was issued in which Bin Laden approved the successor announced by the organization, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (Terror Web Watch).
Bin Laden’s approval of both al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers and its alleged new amir, Abu Hamza, was noticeably cautious and restrained, especially when compared to his December 2004 speech approving the last “Amir” of the group, Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi. First, there is no praise given of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir and no indication that Bin Laden was aware of him prior to the announcement. “We have heard that the Mujahid brothers in the al-Qaeda organization have chosen the dear brother Abu-Hamza al-Muhajir as their Amir….” Bin Laden then “urges” him to be both “the best successor and the best predecessor.”
He also urges al-Muhajir to keep the organization within the Mujahideen Shura Council (Group Profile forthcoming), thereby publicly expressing his approval of the MSC for the first time and all but explicitly spelling out that he does not think al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers is fit to function on its own. He has no kind words for al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers in its own right. However, Bin Laden expresses approval of another group in Iraq , the Association for Muslim Scholars, a group of Sunni religious leaders and scholars (‘ulema) who attempt to represent the Sunni (in reality, the Sunni Arab) population. They are an influential, hard line organization that supports attacks against Coalition forces. After speaking of their efforts to call attention to the “genocide” being carried out against Sunni Muslims, Bin Laden beseeches Muslims in Iraq to “?listen to and obey the jama’a [society]?” which appears to refer not to al-Qaeda but rather to the Association of Muslim Scholars.
Bin Laden eulogized Zarqawi generously to do otherwise would have been insulting to Zarqawi’s fighters and confusing to his supporters. However, Bin Laden appears to be acknowledging in this speech, with his spare words for al-Qaeda and their new Amir as well as his recognition of other important players in the Iraqi insurgency, that the al-Qaeda offshoot in Iraq may have fallen out of public favor. He seems to be attempting to associate himself and the al-Qaeda-core with the Iraqi resistance as a whole, rather than with the possibly unpopular al-Qaeda offshoot.
In another break from the norm, Bin Laden gives tacit approval for violence against Shia Muslims, a matter that was largely thought to be an important point of contention between the al-Qaeda top brass and Zarqawi : “?Iraqis in the south cannot share with the United States and its allies in invading Fallujah, Ramadi, Baquba, Mosul, Samarra, al-Qaim, and other towns and villages and while the areas [where they live] remain safe from vengeance and harm.” This is an expression of modified support for violence on Shia areas actively supporting the Coalition?euphemistically identified not by religious sect but as “Iraqis in the south.” This kind of approval, however qualified, means that there is little chance that the al-Qaeda organization in Iraq and the Mujahideen Shura Council will let up on the violence against Iraq’s Shia population (see this WAR Report) in spite of the death of Zarqawi, the man who may have been a primary instigator of the low-level civil war now burgeoning in parts of Iraq.