It is still uncertain whether Somalia and Ethiopia will truly reach a lasting peace. The crisis in Somalia threatens the future stability of the region. It is comprised of the following issues, all of which must be addressed in any initiative to create a just and sustaining peace:
? Popular support among Somali nationals for the Eritrean-backed Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC; Group Profile) and the undermining of the weak, Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG),
? Ideological and religious clashes between Ethiopia and Somalia,
? SICC?s declaration of jihad against Ethiopia and any foreign force acting on its behalf, and
? The likelihood of a safe haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorists to operate within its borders and in the region
Unpopular United States Resolution
The US? draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) came under major protest on December 4 in Somalia?s capital, Mogadishu. At least 4,000 supporters of the SICC gathered and chanted slogans against the proposed resolution, which called for a partial lifting of the 14-year arms embargo in Somalia and deployment of an 8,000-troop peacekeeping mission manned by the seven-nation east African regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which includes enemy state, Ethiopia.
The UIC enjoys the support of a vast majority of Somalis, who are largely tied by a shared hatred for Ethiopia, which is a majority Orthodox Christian nation. The majority of Somalis consider the weak TFG an extension, or proxy, of Ethiopia that further weakens their legitimacy in the war-torn nation.
Moreover, having previously declared a jihad against Ethiopia , Shiekh Hasan Dahir Aweys, leader of the SICC, reiterated on December 4 that the SICC ?will launch a jihad war against any foreign forces deployed in Somalia? no matter what country they are from. Last week?s suicide car bombings , executed by African foreign terrorists near the TFG capital, Baidoa, indicates the presence of al-Qaeda terrorists already operating within Somalia?s borders.
Necessary Attitude Change for Lasting Peace
In order to reach a lasting and agreeable peace, the initiative must focus on nation building; it must speak loudly and clearly to Somalis, who need to identify with the benefits of each proposition. The SICC?s widely popular movement commands respect, despite the international community?s opinion of its governance. As the recent International Crisis Group report on Somalia explains, the UNSC should push for both parties to continue peace talks without pre-conditions and should rule out the involvement of neighboring peacekeeping forces in Somalia, including the extraction of foreign forces currently inside Somalia. Resolutions that only support one side of the conflict, as was the case with the US draft, are counterproductive and could lead to an intense escalation to war.