Haitian President Rene Preval, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer five years ago, informed local media sources on December 10, 2006 that his cancer may have returned. Preval is scheduled to travel to Havana, Cuba in the coming days for further tests. The severity of his condition is not yet known, and Preval?s government and supporters have not commented on the future course of Preval?s government should doctors confirm the diagnosis. Preval?s health adds to both the uncertainty facing his coalition government and the short-term political and security environment of the Haitian state .
Opposition political parties have seized on Preval?s announcement, demanding that legislators decide whether Preval should transfer powers temporarily to an executive council of cabinet members and led by the Haitian Prime Minister, Jacques Edouard Alexis.
Preval?s presidential election in February 2006 and the subsequent formation of a unified governing coalition have failed to curtail growing instability in Haiti. Since February, the synergy of criminal and political violence in Haiti?s embattled capital, Port-au-Prince, and the emergence of organized criminal gangs outside of Haiti?s urban centers have paralyzed the Preval government .
UN peacekeeping officials in Haiti stated that violence is well coordinated, suggesting the presence of politically-aligned?and possibly funded?gangs. UN peacekeepers, in combination with the embryonic Haitian national police, are unable to impose security measures to quash street fighting between rival gangs that occurs almost daily in Port-au-Prince?s streets.
Given Haiti?s turbulent political history, any temporary transfer of presidential powers to outside political figures may not be all that ?temporary.? Should Preval remove himself from power or be forced to leave office, TRC anticipates short-term political turmoil and the resurgence of criminal elements aligned with anti-Preval political figures. An anti-Preval criminal resurgence could provoke violent backlashes by those Haitian citizens, criminal entities, and security personnel loyal to Preval, reigniting civil unrest and political turmoil in the country. Should these indicators come to fruition, corporate entities with a presence in Haiti, and particularly those with a presence in Port-au-Prince, should enhance their security presence and consider relocating staff to more secure locations, preferably off the island of Hispanola.