The latest attack against a foreign company in the Horn of Africa occurred April 24, 2007 . In Eastern Ethiopia’s Ogaden region, 200 gunmen from the ethnically Somali rebel group, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), killed 65 Ethiopians and nine Chinese in an attack on an oil exploration field run by the state-owned China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation. Rebels shot dead the 74 employees while they were sleeping and also kidnapped seven Chinese and two Ethiopians, who were released April 30, 2007. Although the ONLF issued a threat last year to foreign companies operating in the Ogaden region, we believe this attack is not part of a larger terrorist plot on foreign oil or energy companies, as we have recently seen with Islamist terror groups, such as al-Qaeda.
In recent years, the ONLF has only made occasional hit-and-run attacks against Ethiopian troops in an effort to create an independent state for the Ogaden region – an area the size of Britain with four million people. Last week’s attack is the most significant one the group has ever conducted. Although the ONLF has fought the Ethiopian government for the secession of the Ogaden region since the early 1990s, we believe that there are two other catalysts – Somalia and Eritrea – behind the ONLF’s latest attack.
ONLF Links With Somalia’s SICC
The ONLF’s violence has increased significantly alongside the ongoing intense fighting in neighboring Somalia (Previous Report). Since the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) defeated the US-backed warlords in June 2006, SICC loyalists in Ogaden, namely members of the ONLF, have been encouraging and supporting their fight against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian troops (Previous Report). Further, according to a United Nations arms monitoring report last year, ONLF leaders were frequent visitors to the Somali home of Shiekh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who later became the hardline leader of the SICC. ONLF members visited his home in central Somalia to collect arms sent from Eritrea, which has a history of supporting Ethiopia’s opponents, as well as fueling tensions between the Ethiopians and the Somalis (Previous Report).
We believe it is significant that those occupying the Ogaden region, near the Somalia border identify themselves with insurgents in Somalia and support their continued fight against Ethiopian troops and the TFG. We believe increased violence in Somalia has fueled and encouraged the ONLF to conduct its deadliest operation since its existence in 1984.
Support From Eritrea
In addition to the Somalia factor, Ethiopia’s other neighbor has also played a role in the ONLF’s capabilities and recent surge of violence. Eritrea’s contempt for Ethiopia over a long and unresolved border dispute has proved profitable for anti-Ethiopian groups. In Somalia, the SICC pressured Eritrea for material support, usually in the form of weapons, in their offensive against the TFG and Ethiopian troops. Likewise, the ONLF, being ethnically Somali, finds a secure and steady support line, or lifeline, with the Eritreans.
• Witnesses from last week’s massacre said the rebels were wearing Eritrean army uniforms and others said they spoke Eritrean, leading some to believe that Eritreans may have been with the rebels, or part of the group fighting that day.
Further, the Ethiopian government believes Eritrea is trying to destabilize its nation given that the Ethiopians are engaging in development activities all across the nation. In fact, shortly after the massacre, in a likely effort to prove its perseverance and resolve, Ethiopia signed a $200-million deal with China’s state-owned telecom group, Zhongxng (ZTE) to enhance Ethiopia’s fledging telecommunications network.
Forecast: Violence Will Continue to Intensify
We believe the ONLF will continue to seek support from any entity that is willing to help its cause. Last week’s attack indicates the group’s determination to fight for what it considers its right to “self-determination.” The ONLF’s geo-political location in East Ethiopia — sharing a border with Somalia and its close proximity to Eritrea – makes it easier for the rebel group to acquire weapons, material, and logistical support from two well-resourced suppliers.
We believe the ONLF will continue to attack Ethiopian military forces and state security, even if it is at the cost of other lives for the sake of its own political pursuits. Regardless, while the ONLF is receiving support from Somalia and Eritrea now, odds of achieving a sovereign Ogaden region are still slim in the near to mid-term.
