Following the disruption of the New York JFK Airport terrorist plot by US authorities in early June 2007, US government concerns over the vulnerability of Caribbean nations to Islamic terrorist infiltration by foreign militants and the growth of local Islamic terrorist cells have intensified. These jitters are largely based on the region’s strategic importance to US oil and natural gas supplies, as well as possible economic repercussions should Islamic terrorists target US cruise ships operating in the region. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has recently authored a report identifying the growing influence of radical Islamic groups as a threat to the Caribbean’s maritime security, in addition to more traditional threats such as organized crime and narco-trafficking. TIS continues to believe that Caribbean port operations are vulnerable to terrorist attack.
Radical Islamic Groupings in Trinidad and Tobago: Threat to US LNG Shipments
Although violent international Islamic terrorist groups have not been a significant threat in Caribbean Muslim communities, the growth of local radical Muslim groupings on the island of Trinidad and Tobago poses a potential threat to the island’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. The US acquires an estimated 70 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Trinidad, thereby making Trinidad the largest supplier of LNG to the US. This percentage is expected to grow at an annual rate of two percent over the next 10 years, as the US continues to seek alternative energy sources.
Trinidad is home to two substantial Islamic fundamentalist groups’ the Islamic Front led by Umar Abdullah and Jamaat al Muslimeen (JaM) led by Yasin Abu Bakr. Bakr has repeatedly demonstrated his disdain for Western-style democracy and seeks to install an Islamic government based on Sharia law within Trinidad and Tobago. Umar Abdullah is known to have ties to al-Qaeda and actively took part in the Afghan-Soviet War of the 1980s as a mujahideen fighter. Both men lead growing bands of Islamists; most of them are island converts.
In 2005 we previously discussed lax security efforts, poor police training and rampant corruption within the island’s security services and their effect on the island’s LNG refining centers and port facilities. Although JaM members have not previously sought to target the state’s LNG operations, nor did the group’s leadership seek to partake in the thwarted JFK terrorist plot in June 2007, JaM’s previous coup d’etat attempt against the Trinidad and Tobago government in 1990 demonstrates the group’s capability to perpetrate further attacks against government interests and economic operations.
Although the international al-Qaeda terrorist group has not established a base of operations in Caribbean states, known al-Qaeda terrorist Adnan G. El Shukrijumah holds both a Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana passport. We remain concerned that al-Qaeda operatives, particularly the elusive El Shukrijumah, will continue to seek partnerships with homegrown Islamic extremists residing upon the island, potentially targeting US interests within Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG industry.
Hezbollah Presence in South America
In addition to addressing the threat of radical Islamic terrorists in the Caribbean the GAO report also addressed the presence of Hezbollah groupings in both Venezuela and Colombia and their potential targeting of US interests in these countries, particularly as they relate to energy supplies. However, Hezbollah targeting of US interests in Venezuela is unlikely, as such attacks could force Venezuelan government crackdowns on Hezbollah’s illicit activities. Currently, activities in the Tri-Border, Venezuela, and Margarita Island provide substantial reward to Hezbollah’s core operations. This could change if evens in Lebanon or Iran trigger new Hezbollah attacks.
Caribbean Tourist Industry
In addition to targeting LNG port facilities in Trinidad and Tobago, Islamic terrorists could target the regions tourist industry by attacking cruise line vessels and local ports hosting US cruise line companies. Nearly 7 million North American cruise passengers visited the Caribbean in 2006. The US State Department has warned that Islamic terrorists may employ an explosive-laden vehicle to target US cruise ships or port facilities in the Caribbean, small arms or rockets, or traditional armed assaults. A successful terrorist attack against US cruise lines would cause enormous financial losses to the industry, impacting US cruise lines and local Caribbean economies.
State Department officials identified a number of security concerns that could impact US cruise line operations in the region. Specifically, Caribbean ports contain a variety of facilities such as cargo facilities, cruise ship terminals, and facilities that handle petroleum products and liquefied natural gas. The large number of vulnerable and potentially inviting terrorist targets within Caribbean ports increases the threat to US cruise lines calling on these facilities.
US Government Programs Designed to Increase Security
The US government has launched a number of initiatives to better prepare Caribbean states for potential terrorist attacks. Among the programs currently being conducted to improve security cooperating with Caribbean authorities, the US government has pledged some US $155 million to the “Enduring Friendship” program which is designed to provide training and intelligence seminars in Jamaica, Trinidad and Guyana.
We believe several vulnerabilities exist to Caribbean port operation, and as a result could potentially impact US cruise line and LNG tanker activities in the region. Continued awareness and improved security measures will need to be implemented and sustained to reduce the potential for attacks.