Highlights

– The leftist movement continues to grow
– Plan Mexico comes into effect
– Women’s role in politics increased

The Leftist Movement Will Hit High Water Mark

The leftist movement has gained popularity in the past years, and that momentum is unlikely to dissipate in 2008. The recent past has seen a factory worker, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, win the presidency in Brazil and Evo Morales, of indigenous origin, take the reigns in Bolivia; both leaders broke the mold as poor, working class citizens defeating white, rich candidates. Many other leaders continue to preach a leftist agenda, the most visible being Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez, thanks in large-part to soaring oil revenues. However, Morales and Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa are not far behind in their radicalism with desires to dissolve their nations’ governments and institute new left-leaning regimes.

2008 will see elections in Paraguay and the Dominican Republic, followed by El Salvador in 2009. In at least two of the three nations, leftist-leaning politicians (namely Fernando Lugo in Paraguay and Farabundo Marti in El Salvador) are likely to win the presidency. If this occurs, the leftist-bloc in Latin America will increase in size and momentum in the coming year.

However, the leftist leadership will need to keep campaign pledges in order to retain their faithful support base. While leaders may continue to be elected on the promises of ending poverty, rebuilding critical infrastructure, and boosting long-standing economic woes, failure to follow through could be a movement’s downfall.

Venezuela is the best example, as Chavez suffered a defeat in a December 2, 2007, referendum largely because his support base failed to turn out at the polls. Three million fewer voters hit the polls than in the 2006 presidential election, which saw Chavez’s election. Therefore, the referendum that would have shifted Venezuela into a Cuban-styled “socialist” country was defeated not because his supporters did not believe in his cause, but because his supporters were exhibiting discontent for the job he is currently doing domestically. Many felt that Chavez spent too much time and gave out too much money to boost his image outside the nation instead of spending it on Venezuela’s poor, as he promised, and that his close relationship with Cuba would lead to the systematic ending of private property in their nation.

Chavez is likely to spend more time, money, and resources at home in 2008 in order to bolster his position among Venezuelans, as his obligations abroad lessen in the coming year. Thus, he will stay at home and focus on domestic policy if he has any ambition of retaining the presidency. Similarly, other leftist leaders will also need to focus on their respective domestic support or risk losing leadership positions.

Two things remain evident for the coming year. First, leftist politics and sizable oppositions will lead to continued political instability throughout Latin America. The strong, but divided, opposition throughout Latin America will likely continue to exert its influence through rallies, civil disobedience, and violent protest. However, without realignment and centralized leadership, the opposition will probably not be able to oust leftist leadership in the near-term. Second, leftist regimes’ strength or weakness, especially in Venezuela, will depend on world oil prices. As long as oil prices remain high, Chavez will continue to retain the power to persuade and influence policy throughout the region.

Drugs And Crime Will Increase, Draining Resources

More than 60 percent of Mexico’s population approves of President Felipe Calderon’s performance over the past year. In 2007, Calderon has productively combated illicit drug trafficking and drug-related crime and has boosted Mexico’s economy. Both issues will remain the main initiatives for Calderon into 2008. The larger of the two concerns will be the drug trade, due to its potential effects on regional stability.

With radically new, pro-military steps against the drug trade, Calderon has been able to break down political and security barriers that his predecessor, Vincente Fox, proved unable to traverse. In the past year, Mexico has accounted for seizures of some of the largest amounts of cocaine and cash linked to organized crime in the world. Additionally, authorities have made several key arrests to stifle drug operations. However, they have also had to weather the storm of increased drug-related, violent backlash, and the large, strong cartels have indicated that the fight is just beginning.

We projected that a strong-armed approach toward drug cartels would increase related violence and have serious implications for security throughout the nation. It has done both, and the coming year will likely see similar or potentially escalating levels of violence throughout Mexico with possible spillover into neighboring nations.

2008 will likely see the launch of the “Mérida Initiative” or Plan Mexico; a US$1.4 billion multi-year US aid package that is slated to begin in 2008. The Bush administration is pushing for an initial US$550 million to be appropriated before the end of 2007. The aid package, which is receiving condemnation from Mexican and US lawmakers and citizens, includes direct donations of military and intelligence equipment and training programs for Mexican law enforcement officials. US lawmakers are concerned with the secretive process behind the proposed plan while some Mexican leaders and citizenship remain skeptical of any US assistance. Despite the criticism, both the Calderon and Bush administrations insist on Plan Mexico’s necessity, hoping these resources will provide the Mexican military and police with training and equipment to engage the cartels.

As we have previously noted, however, without a larger regional strategy to combat the growth of drug trafficking cartels throughout Latin America, the US government will prove unable to battle the fluidity of these groups. Should the Mexican government prove effective in combating Mexico’s cartels, we anticipate cartels dispersing trafficking operations to nearby Central, and potentially South, American states where Mexican drug trafficking groups have established relationships and safe havens. We have already seen the beginnings of such a move by cartels in Guatemala and Peru.

Thus, drug trafficking will continue to play a major role in the overall stability of Latin America. Mexico and the US will be on the forefront of the fight in 2008, but other nations will need to get involved, as spillover from Plan Mexico operations and an exodus of organized crime will likely affect the region negatively.

Women Will Lead

Female political power is on the rise across the globe. Yulia Tymoshenko is the new Ukrainian Prime Minister, and Angela Murkle has become the German Chancellor. Latin America is keeping with the trend. 2006 saw Portia Simpson-Miller elected Prime Minister of Jamaica, and Michelle Bachelet Jeria took the presidency in Chile, appointing women to half the Cabinet. 2007 followed with Pratibha Patil’s swearing in as India’s president and Cristina Fernandez’s victory in Argentina. 2008 will likely follow suit, as at least one more leadership position, Paraguay’s presidency, is up for grabs, and former education minister, Blanca Ovelar, won the primary of the nation’s largest, most influential political party, the Asociación Nacional Republicana (ANR; the Colorado Party). This places another female in position to take a national leadership rank, as the ANR has ruled in Paraguay without interruption since 1947.

The recent electoral victories of females, especially in the machismo region of Latin America, points to changing public views and attitudes on the role of women. Ruling parties are determining that women politicians are an effective way to appear more modern and less corrupt. With corruption an ongoing problem and ruling governments loosing credibility because of it, women – who are seen as more accountable, honest, and direct – may be the change ruling parties need in order to keep power in Latin America.

This is not to say that female leadership in the region is unprecedented. Thirteen women have worn the presidential sash in Latin America’s history, but this is the first time that two major countries, Chile and Argentina, will be led by women at the same time. Additionally, about one in five Cabinet members across Latin America are women, as are one in five members of the Lower House of Parliament, up from one in six in 2000 and one in 20 in 1980. The numbers are steadily increasing.

This is a trend that will not likely end in the near-term. As old-fashioned political parties with credibility issues continue to alter their image, more women will likely play increased roles across the board. Additionally, opportunities for women will grow because educational standards for women have risen and because women are outnumbering and outliving men. Because of this, women will play an increasingly important part as a voting constituency as well. While we are not experiencing a feminist overthrow of Latin American politics, we are and will continue to see an enhanced importance of women in the region’s governments.