Highlights:
– Benazir Bhutto’s death combined with rising prices of commodities have led to increased opposition to Musharraf and the ruling PML
– Voting safety continues to be a major concern as the February 18th election nears
– The election will most likely take place, despite speculation that Musharraf may delay polls for a second time
On February 11, 2008, the Pakistan Bar Council began a boycott of the country’s courts to pressure President Pervez Musharraf to reinstate senior judges he removed under a state of emergency in November 2007 (Previous Report). The lawyers’ boycott is just one example of the Pakistani public’s discontent with Musharraf with less than one week before the national elections.
However, Musharraf is not the only leader facing plummeting approval ratings as public approval for al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden has dropped from 46 percent in August 2007 to only 24 percent today. The public’s feelings of disenfranchisement coupled with rising food prices will likely help moderate parties take some support away from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML).
Despite strong feelings against Musharraf, voter turnout on election day will most likely be lower than expected as Islamic militants continue to target political groups and rallies throughout Pakistan.
Benazir Bhutto’s ‘Martyrdom’
Over 100,000 people turned out on February 9, 2008, to attend the largest Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) campaign rally since the assassination of its leader, Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2008 . The rally was held in a sports stadium in the southern city of Thatta, located in Bhutto’s native Sindh province. Supporters chanted slogans such as “Democracy is the best revenge,” as nearly 2,000 police and hundreds of private armed security guards secured the area.
Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, gave a short speech in which he stated, “We will avenge Bibi Sahiba’s [Benazir Bhutto] martyrdom in a democratic way. The time of empowerment for the poor will come and Bibi Sahiba’s mission will be accomplished.”
While campaigning in the final week before the election is largely expected to be more reserved in light of the country’s deteriorating security situation, Saturday’s rally was larger than many Bhutto held prior to her death. The huge turnout was most likely due to the fact that the traditional 40-days of mourning for Bhutto ended on February 7, 2008.
Moderate Parties Comeback
Survey’s conducted by Gallup Pakistan, the US-based International Republican Institute and the Terror Free Tomorrow (TFT) organization all report the same findings – public support for moderate parties such as the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has dramatically increased in recent months.
The surveys were conducted over a wide range of the Pakistani populous from rural to urban areas, and TFT reportedly covered every province in Pakistan. All three agreed that over 70 percent of those surveyed want President Musharraf to resign immediately and if the polls were conducted at the time of the survey (late January 2008 for all three organizations) 62 percent would vote for the PPP or the PML-N, compared with only 40 percent in August 2007.
TRT’s latest survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of Pakistanis would vote for either the PPP or the PML-N. If the two parties win at least two-thirds of the seats in Pakistan’s parliament, they could potentially remove President Musharraf from office.
Voting Safety
In the weeks leading up to the February 18, 2008 elections, attacks on campaign rallies and political leaders has intensified. On February 9, 2008, a suicide attack at an election rally of the Awami National Party (ANP) in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) killed at least 20 people . While Pakistani officials arrested two suspects related to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on February 7, 2008, and four days later the senior Taliban commander, Mullah Mansour Dadullah was arrested near the Afghan border, attacks targeting Pakistani politics are highly likely to continue in the near-term.
The government announced that tens of thousands of soldiers, paramilitary and police officers will be deployed before, during and after elections; however, security personnel are often the target of suicide attacks and will not deter Islamic militants. Almost half of Pakistan is “off-limits” to election monitors because of the security situation, further diminishing the credibility of the polls.
Election Outlook
President Musharraf may still postpone the elections as he did after the death of Bhutto in December 2007; however, the government has continued to insist that the polls will proceed as scheduled.
If the polls do go ahead as planned, the moderate parties will likely accuse the government of rigging and corruption since many Pakistani and international election monitors will not be able to oversee the election process. The expected low voter turnout will likely hurt the moderate parties as those who most want to see change in the government fear they will be targeted in an attack.
