Highlights
– Ukraine has expressed support for Georgia in its latest conflict with Russia
– The Crimean peninsula remains a point of contention in Russian/Ukrainian relations
– Ukraine will continue to look West as Russia is increasingly viewed as a threat to its national security
As the international community observes the ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia, many eyes have also shifted towards Ukraine, which like Georgia, is struggling to break free from Russia’s post-Soviet embrace.
Throughout the weeklong conflict, which began on August 7, 2008 Ukraine has offered strong vocal support for Georgia causing evident displeasure in Moscow. The unusual tough rhetoric towards Russia has raised several questions, including whether Ukraine was prepared to maintain its tough stance toward Moscow and if the two countries were headed towards a future conflict.
Diplomatic Support
On August 10, 2008 three days after Georgian forces crossed into South Ossetia, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry warned Moscow that the country may prevent the Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels located in the Crimean port of Sevastopol to return to base if the ships were involved in combat operations against Georgia.
Presently, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based in the port of Sevastopol under a leasing agreement signed in 1997 that is due to expire in 2017.
The Russian Foreign Ministry immediately released a statement criticizing the August 10th announcement regarding its Black Sea Fleet’s operations, claiming it was a “hostile” action towards Russia. However, the stern warning from Russia did not stop pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, in a fresh show of solidarity with the Georgian leadership in Tbilisi, from issuing another statement on August 13, 2008, in which he said that Russian naval ships and aircraft from the Black Sea Fleet will be required to request permission 72 hours ahead of any movement. The Russian side quickly shot back, claiming the measure was a “new serious anti-Russian step,” causing a near-term deterioration in relations.
However, unlike his Polish counterpart Lech Kaczynski, who openly called for counteracting Russia’s renewed apparent imperial ambitions, Yushchenko has been more cautious in choosing his words. In a speech on August 12, 2008, the Ukrainian President avoided any mention of Russia, but proclaimed Georgia as a friend and the two countries would stand together in “the most difficult of times.”
Despite the vocal and diplomatic support from President Yushchenko, it is unlikely and unrealistic to assume that Ukraine’s warnings will transform into resolute actions. However, Ukraine’s support for Georgia has angered Moscow and will likely result in increased tensions and contribute to the already deteriorating relationship between the two neighbors.
The Question of the Crimea
There is little doubt that Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders are growing increasingly at odds with their counterparts in Russia over foreign policy. Russia’s conflict with Georgia over the separatist region of South Ossetia has prompted suggestions that pro-Russian nationalism in the Crimea, strong in the 1990’s, could be rekindled and undermines the authority of the Ukrainian state.
However, Valentin Nalivaichenko, acting chairman of Ukraine’s SBU security service, and other top security officials, largely discount the notion of a separatist rebellion in the Crimean peninsula. Ultimately, nationalism in the Crimea could not be compared with South Ossetia’s longstanding rebellion and strive for independence.
Ukraine’s control of the Crimea, which is populated by ethnic-Russians, remains a highly sensitive issue among nationalists in Moscow who occasionally call for Sevastopol to be returned to Russia. However, Russia is unlikely to embark on a campaign of destabilizing the Crimea in the near-term, as Moscow is likely to employ other punitive measures against Ukraine, which may include the reduction of oil supplies to the country.
A Similar Fate?
Russia appears to regard both Ukraine and Georgia as wayward neighbors that should be brought back into Moscow’s orbit or sphere of influence. Both Kiev and Tbilisi have actively sought membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), something that has caused upset in Moscow.
On August 16, 2008 Ukraine indicated it might integrate its early warning missile system with Europe or propose other countries use its missile defense capabilities. Russia has already been angered by Poland’s recent decision to host interceptor missiles for a larger United States missile defense system and Ukraine’s suggestion of integrating its early warning system with Europe will like draw increased suspicion from Moscow.
Ukraine’s strong vocal support for Georgia, its warning towards Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and its suggestion to integrate its missile system with Europe has increased speculation that Russia may now turn its focus toward Ukraine. Since the pro-democracy Orange Revolution of 2004 put the country on a pro-Western course, relations between Russia and Ukraine have deteriorated.
• In the near to mid-term, with Kiev dependent on its eastern neighbor for energy, it is a strong possibility Russia will use its vast energy reserves to influence the political situation or exert control over Ukraine.
Of all the Eastern democracies, the most vulnerable is probably Ukraine, a nation wedged between Russia and NATO states, the organization it wishes to seek. Russia’s latest invasion of Georgia has caused unease and a feeling of vulnerability in Ukraine. In the near to mid-term, Ukraine is likely to seek an even closer relationship with the West, largely to deter potential future aggressive actions taken by Moscow, whether it involves reducing energy supplies, fueling ethnic tensions, or an outright military invasion. Ukraine will have to conduct relations with Russia on a purely pragmatic basis, hoping not to provoke Russia, as a military conflict between the two will have graver consequences for the region and the world than the current Russian intervention in Georgia.