Highlights

– Mugabe expected to form new government by end of February 2009 despite stalled talks with oppositional leaders
– New cabinet members set to the take place of 12 ministers and deputy ministers who lost their seats in March
– Amidst political conflicts, thousands are dying of cholera and civil unrest is rampant – situation worsens in near to mid-term

With the start of the New Year, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has prepared the way for a new government despite the disapproval of the opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Firing nine ministers and three deputy ministers who lost their seats after the March 2008 elections may be the clearest sign yet that President Mugabe is willing to act on his previous threat to form a government without the input of the opposition. Although Mugabe, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, and Arthur Mutambara, who leads an opposition splinter faction, signed a power-sharing pact on September 15, 2008, efforts to carry out the deal have been delayed by continued disagreements over cabinet posts. Mugabe’s decision to move forward with forming a new government without the consultation of the opposition parties has become the latest source of political and social unrest in Zimbabwe.

In addition, Zimbabweans have been desperately waiting for assistance to combat the devastating outbreak of cholera that has killed over 1,600 people since August 2008. Over 30,000 people have been diagnosed thus far, and humanitarian organizations predict the number will double during the upcoming rainy season. The international community has strongly urged Mugabe to step down from power in an effort to help mend the country’s broken political and economic structures, as well as help eradicate the overspreading cholera epidemic (Previous Report). However, Mugabe’s latest political move has demonstrated the leader’s unceasing resolve to remain in power for the long-term. In the near to mid-term, however, Zimbabweans remain discontent and the international community will pressure Mugabe into engaging the opposition in forming a new government.

Disengaging the Opposition

Under the terms of the initial power-sharing pact, Mugabe would remain president and Tsvangirai would become prime minister. However, the opposition believes a new government cannot be formed because Mugabe has allocated the most important and powerful ministries to his ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). Conversely, Mugabe relegated the opposition to a “junior partner,” according to local media sources.

Among the reasons for Mugabe’s refusal to include the MDC in the political decision-making arena is the ZANU-PF’s accusation that Tsvangirai is “taking instructions from London and Washington to sabotage the unity government. However, Mugabe’s new government is not supported by the international community, and thus is likely to fail at turning the economy around and providing the much-needed assistance to countless Zimbabweans affected by the worsening cholera outbreak.

Civil Unrest Ensues As Cholera Spreads

Over 1,600 people have died since the initial cholera outbreak in August 2008, with the number growing at rapid pace. Mugabe has not taken any serious or lasting measures to help contain the epidemic that has spread into neighboring South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique.

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 30,000 people have been diagnosed in Zimbabwe, and the number is likely to double with the rainy season approaching.

The Red Cross announced January 1, 2009 that it would send seven international emergency response teams to help fight the spread. As there has been little to no previous reporting of disrupted aid to affected Zimbabweans in the months prior to the new government, it is expected that non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) will be able to successfully assist as many people as they can in the coming months. However, Mugabe still faces internal pressure, as he has not acted to appropriately aid workers in assisting his fellow Zimbabweans.

Zimbabweans are also struggling against hyperinflation, severe food shortages and chronic political instability, in addition to the devastating water-born curable disease. A number of protests and riots have broken out in recent months as a result of the restlessness. With Mugabe’s new and unpopular government posts underway, and the continued disapproval by the international community and opposition groups, political and social unrest will likely worsen in coming months. Until Mugabe accepts a mutually beneficial power-sharing agreement, which is not likely to occur in the near to mid-term, Zimbabweans will continue to suffer the consequences of a failing economy and widespread disease. International pressure has mounted on Mugabe to step down from power for months, however, he has been unwilling to acquiesce to any pleas and it seems likely that his resistance will continue for the mid-term.