Highlights
-Congressmen meet with Raul Castro and other Cuban officials
-US Democrats say Raul wants “improved relationship”
-Reform to be long-term process, consisting of moderate compromises from the US in the near-term
On April 3, 2009, seven United States (US) legislators began talks with Cuban government officials regarding changes in the bilateral approach between the two countries. Although both administrations appear willing to open channels for bilateral discussions, talk of drastically reformed Cuban policies may be exaggerated.
We believe the US will pursue an “incremental” approach to improving relations with Cuba in the near to medium-term. A long-term reversal of policies, namely in trade relations, will require significant democratic changes from Havana.
“It’s Time To Talk To Cuba”
Although US legislators have not yet introduced a concrete proposal to alter relations with the communist regime, many US politicians indicated, “It is time to talk to Cuba.”
Legislators Barbara Lee, chairwoman of the US Congressional Black Caucus, Melvin Watt, Laura Richardson, Bobby Rush, Maria Funge and Emmanuel Cleaver attended the meeting in Havana, along with Cuban Parliament President Ricardo Alarcon, the island’s Communist Party Political Bureau member Pedro Saenz, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, and Cuban Interest Section Chief to the US Jorge Bolanos. The visit is expected to conclude on April 8, 2009.
Raul Castro sat with the delegation of US Democrats for over four hours, discussing methods to normalize relations. Representative Lee indicated she was “convinced Raul Castro wants a normal relationship with the Untied States.”
On April 5, 2009, Fidel Castro published a column on the Internet stating:
“It is not necessary to emphasize what Cuba has always said: We don’t fear dialogue with the United States. Nor do we need confrontation to exist, as some fools think…(Dialogue) is the only way of procuring friendship and peace between peoples.”
Embargo Strategy Reassessed
Several US Congressmen, including Richard Lugar, Senior Republican Senator on the US Foreign Relations Committee, argue the embargo strategy is a failure that has accomplished little to “promote human rights and democracy” in the region. He claims the embargo undermines broader security concerns and international “political interests” of the US.
During the congressional meetings, several press networks reported President Barack Obama was planning to lift restrictions of travel and remittances to Cuba for Americans with family members in the country.
In early April 2009, two Democrat and two Republican Senators held a press conference in Washington, DC to promote the proposed Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act 2009. A similar bill will be introduced in the House of Representatives in coming days.
Although this is not the first time Congress has presented such a measure, many supporters believe the tides have turned with Democrats in control of both houses and the White House.
Not So Fast
On January 2, 2009 President Castro indicated he would engage in talks with Obama if he fulfilled promises to favor “engagement over confrontation” with Cuba. However, Castro suggested expectations for a change in US policy may be too high.
Cuba insists on maintaining non-conditionality when negotiating with the US. The Obama Administration holds that a scaling back of the embargo policy would require concrete steps by the regime towards democracy, improvements in human rights violations, and the freedom of political prisoners.
Outlook
We believe President Obama has no intention of lifting the economic embargo in near-term. While Obama likely hopes to improve diplomatic and trade relations with Havana, it is unlikely he would attempt to expend vital political capital on an issue of limited importance given the global economic crisis and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We do not believe significant diplomatic overtures will take place until Cuba undergoes substantial democratic reform.
Renewed discussions on US foreign policy with Cuba demonstrate the initial steps in what will be an incremental and long-term process. It is possible Obama will announce loosened travel measures, remittance restrictions, and possibly farm export regulations preceding the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.