– Authorities forced to conduct raids fearing a large-scale attack was imminent
– Investigation outlines serious loopholes in British student visa program
– Future terror plots will adapt to new security procedures in the long-term
Intelligence gathered in Pakistan and Britain led to a series of raids last week in northwest Britain, as authorities feared a terrorist cell was preparing to launch a large-scale attack on soft targets in Manchester. Counterterrorism police raided several locations in Manchester, Liverpool, and Lancashire and are continuing to search 10 addresses in the Cheetham Hill area of Manchester and in Liverpool.
Authorities have yet to uncover any explosive materials or evidence suggesting the plot was well into the advanced planning stages. The intercepted information leading officials to suspect a group of students from Pakistan, however, exposes Britain’s student visa program as a potential near-term weakness for national security.
Loopholes in the Immigration System
According to a report in British newspaper The Times, at least one of the twelve suspects in the case was registered at Manchester College of Professional Studies, a now defunct college that acted as a gateway for Pakistanis to gain accreditation and documents that backed visa applications for a monetary fee (Source). More than a hundred young Pakistani men, who hold connections to Pakistan’s Swat Valley in the North West Frontier Province, entered Britain through the same bogus college consultancy. Open source reports indicate Pakistan’s 4,000 education consultants routinely attempt to submit fraudulent documents.
• Between 2004 and 2007, more than 42,000 student visas were issued to Pakistani students before authorities began cross-checking applications against an expanded set of police and immigration watch lists (Source).
Investigations into the two men who ran the Manchester illegal visa operation have found links to a legitimate institution, Bradford College of Professional Studies, which has campuses in Bradford and Manchester. The Times further reports that the illegal Manchester visa operation issued bogus certificates confirming students had completed all academic requirements and received a three-year visa extension, in return for a fee of between £800 and £1,000.
British immigration authorities have tightened regulations over the past year, as prospective students must produce exam results, bank statements, a certificate of proficiency in English and a letter of acceptance from a university or college. Nevertheless, a growing number of applications from Pakistan coupled with Britain’s understaffed consulates create a dangerous security vulnerability. Extremist groups operating in Pakistan will likely continue to look to circumvent Britain’s immigration checks through similar visa exploits in the near-term.
Authorities Feared the “Worst”
MI6 operations in Pakistan led counterterrorism officials to believe a large-scale attack on British soil was imminent. MI6 provided names of suspected members of an al-Qaeda trained network sent to Britain. Intercepted phone calls and emails during a months-long investigation led British authorities to fear an attack was imminent for the Easter Holiday weekend, although the specific targets were unclear. Authorities recovered evidence of what may have been reconnaissance photographs around Manchester’s crowded shopping malls and a nightclub. We note, however, that the imagery alone, without the discovery of any explosive materials, offsets somewhat, the imminence claims made by government officials.
Search Continues
Authorities have confiscated a number of computers, but have not yet found any evidence of explosives since raiding the properties. Police received a week extension to hold the remaining eleven suspects, while one 18-year old suspect was released into the custody of the UK Borders Agency. New reports suggest the suspects will be deported rather than charged.
Evolving Terror Threat
Despite the questionable validity of evidence for the current terror investigation, Britain will face a serious long-term threat from evolving terror plots. Successful and thwarted terror plots in recent years underscore a central focus on soft targets, crowded places, and prominent symbols of western and British culture. The suggestion of a terror plot in Manchester also raises the likelihood that future plots will exploit security vulnerabilities in less hardened British areas outside of London. Attack plotters will continue to adapt to new security procedures and will thereby be difficult for authorities to prevent in the long-term.