Highlights

– Reports of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory lead to claims of electoral fraud
– Unrest spreads as Iranians protest outcome of election
– Social networking sites assist Iranians in protesting the regime
– Protests to affect stability of the regime, unlikely to bring down government

On Saturday, June 13, the Iranian government announced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory over his three challengers. According to the government, Ahmadinejad secured approximately 62 percent of the vote while his main challenger, Mir Hossein Moussavi, received only 33 percent of the vote. Ahmadinejad’s victory surprised many Iranians who widely predicted Moussavi would unseat Ahmadinejad, moreover the scale of the victory stunned Moussavi and his supporters. On Sunday, while Ahmadinejad was attending a victory rally, Moussavi released a statement on his website saying “[t]oday, I have submitted my official formal request to the [Supreme] council to cancel the election result…”

We believe the protests will continue in the near term as today marks the fourth day of protest and, despite Moussavi recommending protestors to abstain from demonstrating, so as to prevent additional deaths, approximately 100,000 protestors have returned to the streets of Tehran.

Widespread Protests Throughout Iran

Since the disputed presidential election, supporters of Mir Hossein Moussavi have poured into the streets and clashed with police in protest. These protests are the most serious in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The unrest resembles similar street clashes that erupted in July 1999 and June 2003 – thousands of people have taken to the streets, clashing with security forces and hard-line vigilantes who roam the city on motorcycles.

Reactions to the recent events in Iran have attracted both young and old, with students and older Iranians taking to the streets in central and northern Tehran in addition to five other cities. Unconfirmed reports indicate the additional protests are taking place in Shiraz and Isfahan. The protests are becoming increasingly violent with at least seven people killed on Monday and many more injured.

The protestors are mostly supporters of Moussavi, although anti-West and pro- Ahmadinejad demonstrators, at far less numbers, have taken to the streets as well. The demonstrations held on Saturday and Sunday appeared to be largely spontaneous, facilitated quickly by various social networking sites like Twitter. Monday’s protest, which was held despite an official ban, was better organized and included Moussavi’s first public appearance since Friday’s vote. In his speech, Moussavi vowed to “pay any cost” to contest the election results, but said he had little hope his challenge would succeed.

These protests mark the most significant demonstrations in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution and signify increasing distaste for the ruling government. Violent protests are unusual in Iran, as they are strictly forbidden. The willingness of the population to rise up against what they perceive to be an injustice speaks to the severity of the issue.

Internet “Revolution”

The Internet has played a vital role in the protest, helping to send protestors important information and to allow protestors access to the outside world as Iranian authorities have blocked access to satellite TV, radio, phones, and instant messaging. Twitter and YouTube appear to be the most widespread Internet sites used. Twitter reports have included locations of future protests, firsthand reports of violence, and pictures and videos of the demonstrations.

Twitter has also played an important role in conveying the sentiment of Iranians involved in the protests. Early on Monday, Twitter reports indicated the protestors would be satisfied with Ahmadinejad’s replacement within the context of the current Islamic regime. Later posts, however, appeared to target Ayatollah Khamenei, suggesting increasing frustration with the regime and a desire for change.

Twitter members have also encouraged foreigners to engage in a cyberwar against the Iranian government. Posts have linked to sites informing individuals how to launch a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, which makes a computer resource unavailable to its intended users. Posts have also encouraged hackers to hack into pro-Ahmadinejad websites.

Social networking sites have not previously been used in this manner and their current usage suggest that technology will continue to play an important role in organizing protests and uprisings in the future. Twitter has acknowledged the role it is playing by postponing planned maintenance that would have disrupted service because they “recognize the role Twitter is currently playing as an important communication tool in Iran.”

Outlook

Although these violent demonstrations appear to resemble those of 1999 and 2003 which achieved little, the protests following Ahmadinejad’s supposed reelection are different in that they are in reaction to specific political grievances involving senior politicians. The continuation of the protests, however, depends on Moussavi and other prominent reformist political figures including Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. If these individuals call for either the cessation or continuation of protests, we are likely to see the people respond. As of now, all three have called for peaceful protests. We do not expect any to call for the cessation of protests in the near term.

On Monday, June 15, the Guardian Council, Iran’s Supreme Governing body, called for a partial recount of votes. We expect findings to indicate Ahmadinejad did in fact win the elections, due to widespread support for him outside of Iranian urban areas. This is unlikely to satisfy Moussavi or his supporters, as they have called for a completely new election, and the protests will likely continue until Ayatollah Khamenei orders a crackdown.

We do not believe the protests will unseat the current government. The only way the unrest could result in a coup d’etat is if the army turns on the government and begins to support the people’s movement. While we do not expect this to happen, unconfirmed reports indicate that 16 Revolutionary Guard commanders were arrested after they had attempted to convince members of the Iranian army to join the people’s movement.