Afghanistan

As the nascent Hamid Karzai government works in the near term to find its footing and consolidate power, its ability to extend its writ and democratic institutions and impose martial dominance and security throughout Afghanistan against bristling warlords, resurgent Taliban militants , and fugitive al-Qaeda elements, will be critically tested and serve as the primary variable in the future stability and security of Afghanistan. At present, it would seem that the US-led war in Iraq has drained critical intelligence and special operations personnel and assets from counter-terrorism and reconstruction assistance efforts in Afghanistan. This has likely contributed to the fitful reconstruction pace, the resurgence of Taliban guerrilla operations, a consolidation of their power throughout swaths of Afghanistan?s hinterlands, and the continued inability to locate the high-level al-Qaeda elements?including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri?who US officials believe are hiding within the tribal sanctuary of the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands. The sine qua non for the continued extension of the Karzai government?s writ, and the economic and humanitarian reconstruction and development of the country, is the rapid development of indigenous Afghan intelligence and security agencies with the capabilities to rout anti-government warlord, guerrilla, and terrorist elements from Afghanistan and impose security. If the international community and the US continue to bolster their support for the Karzai government through the provision of troops, intelligence assets, political advisers, humanitarian and reconstruction assets, and funding to allow Afghanistan?s indigenous security and governance agencies develop adequate faculties and competency necessary for autonomous governance, the future of Afghanistan would seem promising. However, a slackening of this support at so critical a juncture could doom the country to a backslide toward civil war, state ?failure?, and its re-infestation by terrorist elements.