In his recent presentation at the 2024 OODAcon, Thomas Barnett, author of America’s New Map, offered a sweeping analysis of the structural changes shaping the 21st century. Barnett explored how U.S.-driven globalization has restructured the world, producing remarkable yet destabilizing outcomes, including an unprecedented acceleration of consumption, demographic transformations, and a burgeoning global middle class. According to Barnett, these shifts have created a new world order—one increasingly oriented around North-South dynamics, with climate change and resource allocation impacting countries differently depending on latitude. As Barnett highlighted, lower latitudes, facing harsher climate impacts and demographic pressures, will experience more significant social and economic upheaval.

Barnett argues that these conditions will drive a reorganization of global power structures and necessitate a reimagined approach to governance and international cooperation, especially in handling migration crises and climate adaptation. He describes the coming decades as so serious they will test humanity’s adaptability and resourcefulness, accelerating technological and societal transformations. He points to a shift from an East-West focus to one oriented along latitudinal lines, underscoring how the forces reshaping the globe are no longer under any one nation’s control.

Barnett suggests that the United States must rethink its approach, advocating for a “North-South” grand strategy that emphasizes regional partnerships and prepares for increased migration flows. He criticizes inward-looking policies and calls for a comprehensive approach that fosters resilience through economic integration and cooperative security measures. Barnett envisions that, while disruptive, these transitions could ultimately empower a globally connected and sustainable future, one marked by new alliances and a redefined global middle class.