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As summer approaches, we return to our OODA Special Report on the business impacts of drought conditions. Initiated by OODA CTO Bob Gourley is his June 2021 post – How Drought In The US Should Impact Your Mid To Long Range Strategic Planning – about the unprecedented heat wave in the Pacific Northwest driven by climate change, which focused on the “major weather system, known as a stationary Heat Dome…making existing drought conditions even worse than they were before.”
So much has happened since then, but if you recall, the summer of 2021 then proved a ‘tipping point’ in the frequency of floods and fires in the domestic U.S. and globally. Unheard of Forest fires and devastating floods, in scale, intensity and impact, in Europe felt like the biggest regional wake-up call. Overall, the dominant headline of last summer was the fact that the impacts of climate change were manifesting more quickly and severely than previously predicted. The global population was then exposed to devastating experiential learning on how drought conditions were the linchpin of an increase in both fires and floods globally.
We followed up with a series of posts that explored how, with drought as the central topic, scenario planning (aka foresight strategy) can be used for strategic planning, mitigating risk, and decision intelligence for your organization:
US Drought Requires Use Of Best Practices in Scenario Planning
Megadrought 2021 and Scenario Planning – Step One (Scale and Scope)
In our own scenario planning practice, three climate science phenomena joined “Polar Vortex” in our lexicon of working knowledge of droughts and climate change:
Heat Dome: “Summertime means hot weather — sometimes dangerously hot — and extreme heatwaves have become more frequent in recent decades. Sometimes, the scorching heat is ensnared in what is called a heat dome. This happens when strong, high-pressure atmospheric conditions combine with influences from climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, i.e. La Niña, creating vast areas of sweltering heat that get trapped under the high-pressure “dome.”[iii]
Dry Lightning – “Dry lightning occurrence is of critical importance to land management agencies since this type is most likely to cause wildland fires. Dry lightning is cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning without any accompanied rainfall nearby.”[iv]
Wet Bulb conditions – According to Motherboard, “Climate change is here and it’s killing us. But it’s not just the heat. It’s the humidity. That’s why scientists are studying ‘wet bulb conditions’— or temperatures at which humans spontaneously die. What, exactly, are “wet bulb” conditions and when do we need to start worrying about them? Can we do anything to stop them? Are people already dying?”[vi] Also: “One critically important and underreported fact is that as temperatures rise, absolute humidity, the total amount of moisture in the air, will also increase. That may create combinations of heat and humidity so extreme that the evaporation of human sweat won’t sufficiently cool our bodies, leaving even healthy adults at risk of death from overheating.”[vii]Heat plus humidity equals more human misery than heat alone or humidity alone—and more than the sum of the two. Above a specific heat/humidity threshold, outdoor activity with any physical exertion (farm labor, construction work, or a pick-up basketball game) will be dangerous.
And then there was this finding during our research, just for fire and brimstone, apocalyptic, dystopian good measure:
The Grasshoppers: “A massive population of grasshoppers is proliferating in the sweltering American west, where a deep drought has made for ideal conditions for grasshopper eggs to hatch and survive into adulthood. They eat and eat [crops] from the day they get born until the day they die. That’s all they do.”[viii]
Seasonal Outlook by @NOAA’s @NWSCPC takes us to the end of August
Improvements are expected east of the Mississippi R.
West/Plains, more of the same. Drought persists w/ some development, including IA. HI too.
Southern AZ/NM may improve, based on potential of a wet monsoon. pic.twitter.com/0gFNhC54GI
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) May 19, 2022
We recommend all leaders and planners open aperture to global drought issues, to assess how a concern for regional “megadroughts” has now morphed into what has been called “perpetual drought” conditions globally. We now apply a global filter to our research, analysis, and scenario planning. Specifically, Step 2 of the scenario planning process is an effort to explore the external environment for patterns and trends since our assessment last year.
Companies are draining Mexico’s water supply amid drought claim Activists: Mexico is currently undergoing massive droughts throughout most of its territory, with some pointing out the role large companies are playing in the recent water shortage crisis. According to Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the nation is currently facing one of the worst droughts in recent history, with almost half of the country presenting some level of water scarcity. Disclosed in CONAGUA’s latest report, as of March 31, the country experienced moderate to intense droughts in 46.01% of its territory, 15.61% more area than it recorded last year.
The report details the climate circumstances that fueled recent droughts, principally, a decline in rainfall across most of Mexico. However, activists have called for the authorities’ intervention in what they call a systemic plundering of the natural resource. With the slogan, “It’s not a drought, it’s looting!” activists are raising awareness of the involvement of private companies and the government in Mexico’s water woes. (Latin America Reports)
In Canda, Farmers brace for more drought conditions as unusually warm weather continues: Last year, 2021, was Calgary’s fourth driest year on record, and so far 2022 hasn’t brought much relief. Allen Jones is already seeing the impact on his farm east of Balzac, where calfing season has just begun. Jones said the lack of moisture is already having an impact — reserve pastures are already tapped out, the dugout is getting dangerously low, and one of his wells ran dry last week. He said with hundreds of calves on the way, he’s already thinking of selling off some cattle, especially with things potentially becoming much worse.
Warmer weather is causing soil moisture to evaporate, which Alberta Agriculture’s Ralph Wright predicts could create another drought for the growing season. “It really hurt a lot of crops dramatically. But you know, that was last year,” Wright said. “What this year is going to bring, we just simply don’t know at this stage. And right now we’re looking at some pretty parched lands. We’re looking at hay fields that didn’t do too well last year, and are probably a little bit stunted. And everyone’s quite worried.” (Globalnews.ca)
Emergency Conditions in New Mexico: In April, destructive wildfires in New Mexico triggered an emergency declaration, “as 20 wildfires continued to burn…in nearly half of the state’s drought-stricken 33 counties. One wildfire in northern New Mexico that started April 6 merged with a newer fire Saturday to form the largest blaze in the state, leading to widespread evacuations in Mora and San Miguel counties. That fire was at 84 square miles (217 square kilometers) Sunday and 12% contained. An uncontained wind-driven wildfire in northern New Mexico that began April 17 had charred 81 square miles (209 square kilometers) of ponderosa pine, oak brush, and grass by Sunday morning north of Ocate, an unincorporated community in Mora County. (npr.org)
Tough Conditions going into Summer and Fall. The first four months of 2022 were the driest on record in California. California is about to enter its dry season. Much of the Southwest and Plains have been much drier than usual, fueling drought. (weather.com and noaa.gov)
A Growing Water Shortage: Millions of Southern California residents are bracing for less water and many brown lawns as drought and climate change leave a large swath of the region with a growing water shortage. In a remarkable indication of drought severity, officials with the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California have declared a first-of-its-kind action limiting millions of Southern California residents are bracing for less water and many brown lawns as drought and climate change leave a large swath of the region with a growing water shortage. (Los Angeles Times)
Solutions-based Innovation to Address Drought and Water Shortages: With California dealing with a severe drought…officials have been searching for sustainable, drought-proof solutions to the ongoing water crisis, which experts say could last for years to come. This is why Gov. Gavin Newsom visited the Joint Water Pollution Control Plant [in Carson, CA], which the Los Angeles County Sanitation District operates, to discuss the state’s efforts to address the crisis — namely, a proposed $3.4 billion water recycling facility that would produce up to 150 million gallons daily if completed. Newsom’s visit, he said, was meant to help publicize the project so its organizers can secure the needed funding to develop the facility. He also reiterated his pledge to spend $100 million on a statewide outreach campaign to encourage water conservation. “There has never been a project like it in United States history,” Newsom said during the visit. “This is a profoundly important project for the state’s future.” (The Daily Breeze)
A Timeframe for your Foresight Strategy and Strategic Planning? There have been brief moments of reprieve in the drought that has stretched on since 2000 in the western United States—a water-rich 2011, a snow-laden 2019—but those breaks have only highlighted the more dramatic feature of the last few decades: unrelenting dryness. Without human-driven climate change forcing Earth’s temperatures up, the ongoing drought would still be painful and parched. But it would be unexceptional in the grand scheme of the past 1,200 years.
A new study in Nature Climate Change shows that Earth’s warming climate has made the western drought about 40 percent more severe, making it the region’s driest stretch since A.D. 800. And there’s a very strong chance the drought will continue through 2030. “Not only is this drought continuing to chug along, it’s proceeding at as full-steam pace as it ever has been,” says Park Williams, a climate scientist at UCLA and an author of the new research. (National Geographic)
Great Plains could see its most significant drought in a decade: Seventy percent of the Southern Plains is experiencing severe drought or worse – this summer, the region could be at risk for another extreme drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 70 percent of the Southern Plains region is currently in severe drought or worse (D2+). This is up from just 7 percent six months ago. Precipitation deficits tell one part of the story. The Southern Plains area has received between 2 and 8 inches less than average for the last six months. Evaporative demand, or the potential loss of water from the surface, has increased stress on the vegetation, which can dry them out more quickly.
The combination of dry air, below-average precipitation, and dry vegetation is also increasing the risk of wildfire. Several fire indicators — those that assess the fuels available, the amount of energy from fuels and the potential difficulty of fire containment — are very high across the region.(The Washington Post)
2018 Northern Plains Drought Assessment: The Northern Plains drought started in the spring and summer of 2017 and sparked widespread wildfires and compromised water resources, leading to the destruction of property, livestock losses, and reduced agricultural production. These impacts were felt in South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, by the tribes of the Northern Plains, and in the Canadian Prairies. (Drought.gov)
Satellite and Imagery-based Drought Intelligence: “…drought in North America took a different shape in 2021, affecting areas that do not face long-term or intense drought as often. The northern Great Plains has been coping with drought for months. According to the U.S. and Canadian drought monitors, “extreme” drought first took hold in North Dakota and Manitoba in mid-March 2021. By summer, extreme and “exceptional” drought (the worst classification) had spread to parts of Montana, Minnesota, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Recent autumn rainfall has lessened the impact in some areas, but for the most part, soils remain parched.
Drought in the northern Great Plains can affect the production of crops, as well as forage for livestock. When assessing drought and its potential to affect agriculture, scientists look at a wide range of indicators such as precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and how much moisture is held in the soil. “Earth observation data can tell us a lot about environmental conditions that impact agricultural production fairly early in the growing season, and of course throughout,” said Mary Mitkish, assistant manager for NASA Harvest, an applied sciences program advancing the use of Earth observations for agriculture and food security. “By combining satellite data with weather and other datasets, we can thoroughly monitor crop conditions and anticipate expected impacts on production.” (NASA Earth Observatory)
France’s unprecedented drought shows climate change is ‘spiraling out of control’: As global warming accelerates, the spectre of drought haunts France’s once verdant farmland. Even now, before the start of summer, 15 administrative départements have had to restrict water use while farmers warn that the current situation will have an adverse impact on crop yields.
Since last autumn we’ve seen “huge droughts” in Spain and Portugal and the same phenomenon has spread to southern France, Lambert said. But “what is unusual this season is that drought is affecting regions north of the Loire”, the river that divides southern and northern France.
“No region has been spared. We can see the earth cracking every day. Yesterday I was at a farmer’s house in the Puy-de-Dôme region [in central France]; he was watering the wheat. If things carry on like this, farmers who can irrigate their crops will be able to deal with it but the others will face a dramatic reduction in their yields,” Christiane Lambert, the head of France’s biggest agricultural union the FNSEA, told AFP on Monday.
Drought will not only undermine the food supply but has effects further afield. “As well as farming, drought has a huge impact on a lot of other things – like buildings,” warned hydrologist Emma Haziza. “We’re seeing more and more houses collapsing. This is unprecedented in France. The damage droughts create is more expensive to deal with than [the consequences of] floods and it will have huge long-term economic consequences.”
“The lack of rain is directly caused by climate change; there’s no doubt about that,” she said. “Drought is one of the first consequences we can see. As things stand, this phenomenon is occurring sooner and sooner and becomes more widespread every year.” Indeed, this is the first time France has endured what meteorologists call a “flash drought” – a phenomenon usually experienced by countries that are more hot and arid, with soil and crops drying up in just five days. (France 24)
UN Report – Droughts, less water in Europe as warming wrecks crops: “We are facing a drastic situation,” said Juan Camacho, a farmer in the southern province of Granada, as he looked hopelessly at withered leaves of avocado plants and their fruits, smaller than usual this year. Not far from his orchard, the region’s largest reservoir is down to 15% of its capacity after over two months without a drop of rain. And at least half of that, Camacho said, “is just muddy water, completely useless.”
Declining agricultural yields in Europe—and the battle for diminishing water resources, especially in the southern part of the continent—are perils that lie ahead as global temperatures continue to rise, the world’s top climate scientists say. Their conclusions are part of a report this week by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released [in February 2022]. The panel’s periodic assessments inform policymaker decisions about how to prevent the planet from warming beyond the 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 Fahrenheit) already gained since industrial times.
For Europe, heat and flooding in addition to agricultural losses and water scarcity will be major climate impacts, the report said. And while European awareness of global warming motivates policymakers to do more, scientists say the ambition and execution of solutions vary greatly from country to country. Extreme heat, floods and droughts will lead to widespread disruption of the economy, including damage to infrastructure and energy supplies, the need for more air conditioning, and greater water demand, the report warned. (phys.org)
Large swaths of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia experienced significantly below-average rainfall levels in March and April. These conditions are projected to persist through early May (Source: New Lines Magazine)
East Africa’s Worst Drought in 40 Years Is Threatening Countries’ Future – How one of east Africa’s worst droughts is threatening livestock, livelihoods, and tradition: East Africa is facing one of the worst droughts in the last 40 years. It’s also the most punishing one in living memory for the older generation, one used to a myriad of hardships from political instability to natural resource scarcity and marginalization due to exclusion from development. Nearly everyone’s faces are weathered, evidence of a life marked by hardship.
Droughts have long plagued this part of the world, driven by naturally induced La Niña weather patterns that periodically heat waters in the Western Pacific, around Indonesia. The hot air evaporates off the surface of the ocean and sweeps west, toward East Africa, where it collides with air traveling east from the Atlantic and sinks to the earth, creating hot, dry conditions. Historically, not all La Niña events have led to poor rainfall in the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa. But since the turn of the century, human-induced warming has driven up temperatures in the Western Pacific, augmenting the effects of natural weather patterns and increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts.
After a season of poor rainfall and subsequent famine ravaged northern Ethiopia in the mid-1980s, meteorologists began developing models to predict droughts. Over the last two decades, the accuracy of their predictions has improved substantially, aided by the greater availability of rainfall data and satellite imagery. These “early warning systems” are crucial humanitarian resources that help governments and aid organizations direct resource allocation efforts before the worst conditions set in.
“Droughts are slow-onset disasters,” said Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards Center at the University of Santa Barbara. “If there’s a rainfall deficit, that’s months before a stale harvest, which is months before food insecurity. So the bread and butter of famine prevention is watching the earth from space and being able to identify those places as quickly as we can.” (New Lines Magazine)
Lessons from the Cape Town water crisis and the need for a renewed technical agenda: Cape Town, South Africa faced a crippling drought between 2016 and 2018. The widely reported “Day Zero” crisis, wherein the city faced the real possibility of the taps being turned off, presented an acute shock and highlighted major vulnerabilities in the city’s water supply system, which relies largely on six large dams. Due to a combination of demand incentives, intensive supply management, and behavioral change campaigns,
Cape Town was able to avert “Day Zero.” However, the crisis provided a number of useful lessons and exposed the critical need for a water system rooted in principles of resilience and a renewed technical approach to water management aimed at equity, sustainability, and water sensitivity. (brookings.edu)
World Food Program says 20 million risk starvation as Horn of Africa drought worsens: Delayed rain has extended and worsened a drought in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. The UN has warned that 20 million people are at risk of starvation this year as a result of this drought. The Horn of Africa has been on the verge of a humanitarian crisis for months as crops and livestock have been destroyed by the drought and large numbers of people have been displaced searching for food and water.
The estimated number of people at risk for starvation could increase from 14million to 20 million in 2022 due to the drought. Almost half the population of Somalia is facing an extreme food crisis and the World Food Program warned that there is a real risk of famine in the country. Half a million people in Kenya, particularly northern Kenya, due to their reliance on livestock, are on the brink of a hunger crisis as well. Malnutrition rates in southern and southeastern Ethiopia have risen above emergency thresholds. The World Food Program has requested $473million over the course of six months to resolve the humanitarian crisis.
UN sounds alarm on Somalia’s ‘rapidly worsening’ drought: The United Nations has warned that Somalia’s worsening drought has caused more than two million people to face severe food and water shortages. The Horn of Africa is on the verge of a fourth consecutive failed rainfall season according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Somali government late on Thursday. Nearly 20% of the population in affected cities or 2.3 million people in 57/74 districts are facing water, food, and pasture shortages. The statement also cited climate change as one of the main drivers of the drought.
Over 80% of Somalia is experiencing extreme drought conditions. Approximately 100,000 people had to flee their homes in search of pasture for their livestock, water, and food. The main cause of displacement in Somalia has been natural disasters, not conflict, in recent years. Over 30 climate-related hazards have been experienced by Somalia since 1990 with 12 droughts and 19 floods. UN resident and humanitarian coordinator for the country, Adam Abdelmóula said urgent action must be taken to prevent famine conditions. The Juba and Shabelle rivers are low and are expected to continue to decrease. Most small water reservoirs and wells have dried up. The drought conditions are expected to worsen through the first quarter of 2022.
South America
Chile announces unprecedented water rationing plan as drought enters 13th year: As a punishing, record-breaking drought enters its 13th year, Chile [in April 2022] announced an unprecedented plan to ration water for the capital of Santiago, a city of nearly 6 million. “A city can’t live without water,” Claudio Orrego, the governor of the Santiago metropolitan region, said in a press conference. “And we’re in an unprecedented situation in Santiago’s 491-year history where we have to prepare for there to not be enough water for everyone who lives here.”
The plan features a four-tier alert system that goes from green to red and starts with public service announcements, moves onto restricting water pressure and ends with rotating water cuts of up to 24 hours for about 1.7 million customers. The alert system is based on the capacity of the Maipo and Mapocho rivers that supply the capital with most of its water and have seen dwindling water levels as the drought drags on. (Reuters)
Asia
Air-Conditioning Should Be a Human Right in the Climate Crisis: A record-breaking heatwave is sweeping South Asia, threatening hundreds of millions of people with deadly temperatures well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. As the world heats up, billions of people need air-conditioning. This 120-year-old technology used to be considered a luxury, but in the age of climate change, it is a necessity for human survival. Understandably, this has created anxiety over the climate threat of a world overrun with ACs. But the coming boom in air-conditioning is an essential shift toward reducing the enormous gap in cooling availability that exists between rich and poor people and nations—and toward producing a more equitable world.
Of the two billion AC units currently in use across the globe, the majority are heavily concentrated in wealthy countries in North America and East Asia (with Europe, which generally has a milder climate, in a distant third). In the hottest regions of the world, AC ownership is just 12 percent compared to more than 90 percent in the U.S. and Japan. But as populations become wealthier and temperatures continue to rise, this trend will change—dramatically.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world is projected to add another four billion AC units by 2050, largely driven by demand in emerging economies such as India and Indonesia. Air conditioners can be quite energy-intensive, particularly if inefficient models are used, meaning these countries will need a lot more electricity. In fact, AC could account for 20 to 44 percent of the peak load in India’s power grid by 2050. If this power is supplied by fossil fuels—and in areas of highest growth, including India and Indonesia, it usually is—the increase will have substantial impacts on global greenhouse gas emissions. (Scientific American)
India and Pakistan heatwave is ‘testing the limits of human survivability: Temperatures in parts of India and Pakistan have reached record levels, putting the lives of millions at risk as the effects of the climate crisis are felt across the subcontinent. The average maximum temperature for northwest and central India in April was the highest since records began 122 years ago, reaching 35.9 and 37.78 degrees Celsius (96.62 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit) respectively, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
Last month, New Delhi saw seven consecutive days over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit), three degrees above the average temperature for the month of April, according to CNN meteorologists. In some states, the heat closed schools damaged crops, and put pressure on energy supplies, as officials warned residents to remain indoors and keep hydrated.
The heatwave has also been felt by India’s neighbor Pakistan, where the cities of Jacobabad and Sibi in the country’s southeastern Sindh province recorded highs of 47 degrees Celsius (116.6 Fahrenheit) on Friday, according to data shared with CNN by Pakistan’s Meteorological Department (PMD). According to the PMD, this was the highest temperature recorded in any city in the Northern Hemisphere on that day. (CNN)
Fiddling While India’s Workers Burn: More frequent and intense heat waves are poised to become bigger killers in the Indian subcontinent than the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. But the government is essentially leaving people to fend for themselves in a foreseeable tragedy and envisages continued investment in fossil fuels for decades to come.
Kim Stanley Robinson’s prescient science-fiction novel The Ministry for the Future begins with a stark description of a major heatwave in a northern Indian city that kills millions of people. The novel is set some decades in the future. But, with people across northern and central India and Pakistan suffering an unprecedented heatwave since late March, it seems terrifyingly current.
In April, usually a time of late spring weather with average maximum temperatures of at most 35° Celsius (95° Fahrenheit), daytime temperatures in New Delhi exceeded 46°C. Temperatures in many places in the region have hovered around 45°C for two months, reaching 49°C in Jacobabad, Pakistan, on April 30, and 47.2°C in Banda in central India. This was the hottest April weather in at least 120 years.
Although the heat has abated slightly since the start of May, the region’s hot season has barely begun. Meteorologists are already predicting that, partly owing to less rainfall than usual in this period, temperatures will rise above 50°C across much of South Asia as summer sets in. The effects can be lethal because the combination of extreme heat and high humidity can prevent sweat from evaporating, reducing the body’s ability to cool down.
This is why the so-called “wet-bulb” temperature, which accounts for both heat and humidity, is significant. When this temperature is around 32°C, the outdoor activity becomes difficult and enervating. If it exceeds 35°C, then spending even a few hours outside in the shade with no physical activity can lead to death. Several Indian cities have recently experienced wet-bulb temperatures of close to 30°C. These could increase in coming heatwaves and kill people, in exactly the way Robinson describes in his novel. (Project Syndicate)
The Middle East
Crisis in Afghanistan: Unprecedented hunger after the conflict: An unprecedented hunger crisis is emerging in the wake of the economic collapse and ongoing drought. By late 2021, nearly half of Afghans were experiencing a crisis or worse levels of food insecurity—the highest level ever recorded in Afghanistan and a 37% rise compared to six months earlier. By early 2022, 55% of Afghans will face acute food insecurity, including nearly 9 million people at emergency levels—one step before famine conditions. Food insecurity is likely to deepen in 2022 as the country is facing shortages of food, rapidly rising food prices and an ongoing drought. Hunger may drive further displacement, as evidenced by IRC assessments in five provinces in mid-2021 that identified lack of food and livelihoods as the top reasons for people leaving their homes. (International Rescue Committee – IRC)
Afghanistan crisis: Nearly 9.5 million people are facing a dire food crisis, exacerbated by drought and soaring food prices. Since October 2020, Afghanistan has been experiencing below-normal rainfall — the lowest in 40 years — that has added to the severity of the country’s drought. (World Vision)
In the months ahead, global drought conditions will intertwine with global food shortage issues wrought by the war in Ukraine. Now is the time to assess your global operations – and use this exploration of the global external environment in your foresight strategy/scenario planning practice. Integrating drought scenarios into business planning can allow organizations to proactively prepare and adjust as best as possible.
Ask yourself and your planners these questions as you formulate your scenario narratives:
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About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
