Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Feature Image Source: Breaking Defense
This case study is a lot more “experimental/operational” than previous posts in our ongoing Speculative Design series – with the full resources of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC) “in the midst of evaluating the results of experimental satellite tech designed to directly warn soldiers on the ground when GPS signals have been disrupted or compromised.” Nothing propels speculative design ideas to what the Department of Energy calls “Earthshots” (or what is commonly known as a strategic “moonshot”) faster than the expertise and resources of a USG department or military branch.
We join the U.S. Army and SMDC as they ponder the operational and experimental iterative feedback loops of the ‘Lonestar’ GPS interference warning system.
According to Breaking Defense: “One of the Army’s end-goals with its multi-pronged Tactical Satellite Layer (TSL) experiment is to ensure ‘dedicated’ access to space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data needed to guide missiles to targets deep inside Chinese and/or Russian territory…
…The Army on April 19 announced it had approved an Abbreviated Capability Development Document (A-CDD) that details service requirements and allows rapid prototyping and experimentation through DoD’s Middle Tier Acquisition process.
‘The A-CDD supports the development of Tactical Space Layer prototyping capabilities and solutions that will enable deep-sensing, targeting, artificial intelligence/machine learning, positioning, navigation and timing, and tactical communications to shorten sensor to shooter timelines, the Army spokesperson explained.
‘Funding provided will support FY21-23 development of prototypes and experimentation in coordination with the Intelligence Community, the Space Development Agency and US Space Force,’ the spokesperson continued. The TSL includes at least three ongoing Army efforts to build experimental satellites/payloads: Gunsmoke, Lonestar and Polaris.” (2)
Gunsmoke-L CubeSats (Image Source: Space News)
SMDC began operational testing in July to evaluate the results of the experimental satellite technology designed to act as a GPS backup system to “directly warn soldiers on the ground when GPS signals have been disrupted or compromised”:
“The Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC) has launched one of two Gunsmoke-L CubeSats in order to test the Lonestar sensor design, from which the “L” designation is derived. ‘To clarify, the [current] satellite and payload are an experiment, so it is not an operational satellite for the Army, but rather an opportunity to evaluate the utility of a capability by tactical users,’ she added. ‘The bus immediately performed as expected. We are now characterizing and analyzing the payload performance.'” (1)
“Lonestar is designed to warn commanders about GPS jamming on the battlefield and to characterize the signals environment in a contested area so that the Army can overcome the problem and operate effectively, [according to Tom Webber, director of SMDC’s Technical Center]. ‘It improves our situational awareness of what is what is happening in the PNT and space world,’ with an eye to Joint All Domain Operations (JADO), he said. ‘We actually hope to have Lonestar, at least the first one or two of those, going up or early next year,’ Webber said.
The Army over the past several years has experimented with several iterations of classified satellites under this program…Gunsmoke-L has been underway since November of 2018 when the Army awarded a two-year, $8.3 million contract to Dynetics to develop, test, integrate and demonstrate two so-called tactical space support vehicles…since the Army isn’t developing electro-optical or IR payloads for ISR from space, a good guess would be that Gunsmoke is carrying a radio-frequency (RF) geo-location package. As Sydney has reported, the Army has been experimenting with such sensors — which use radio signals to trace back a target’s location — as an upgrade to the Precision Strike Missile. The builder and operator of America’s spy satellites, the NRO, issued its first contract to study RF geolocation late last year to startup Hawkeye 360.” (3)
“While the specifics are classified, Gunsmoke-L is one of a set of three experimental CubeSat initiatives designed to help Army field units get more rapid direct support from space.” (1)
Polaris CubeSat (Image Source: Nanosats Database)
“The second, called Polaris, also is aimed at ensuring positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) in case of trouble at the GPS corral, but is aimed squarely at serving in the deputy sheriff role by providing an alternative if GPS goes down.” (1)
“Polaris…is aimed at the Army’s Assured Positioning, Navigation and Timing Cross Functional Team (APNT CFT)…but its primary goal is to provide an alternate GPS capability in contested battle spaces…to stress that the oft-forgotten timing element in PNT is critically important for All Domain Operations (ADO). The Technical Center is also ‘in conversations’ with the Space Development Agency’s (SDA), [according to Webber]: ‘They’re looking at that to potentially help them do some of their Transport Space Layer work.’
[In 2020], “Defense Secretary Mark Esper ordered all the military services to look to SDA’s “data transport” satellites to connect their separate command and control systems for future all-domain operations. SDA has awarded Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems contracts to build 10 data relay satellites: Lockheed got $187.5 million; and York $94 million.” (3)
The scale of the Gunsmoke-J CubeSat (Image Source: U.S. Army)
“The third initiative is the Gunsmoke-J CubeSat series, designed to scout over-the-horizon payloads to feed the Army’s ‘long-range precision fires‘ capabilities, including hypersonic missile launchers — a foundational requirement for Project Convergence, the service’s effort to develop Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) capabilities.” (1)
SMDC’s internal CubeSat development efforts date back “most notably with the Kestrel Eye project initiated in 2007. Kestrel Eye, a mini-fridge sized electro-optical satellite with a two-meter resolution, was launched in 2017 and operated for 10 months.” (4)
And, of course, join us at OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption, where contested space will be discussed on the following panel:
John Robb, Global Guerrillas Report and Author of Brave New War
J.D. Work, Cyber threat expert and professor at Columbia, NDU, and MCU.
Yegor Dubynsky (invited), Ukraine Office of Digital Transformation
Panel description: “Twenty years ago, cybersecurity experts warned of attacks against power grids and planes falling from the sky. They predicted a future that has not manifested itself yet. Will it? Or will the future of war be a conflict waged for the hearts and minds of social media users. What about the future of conflict in the contested domain of space – not only regarding assets in orbit, but space exploration and resource exploitation? What lessons will Russia use from its extensive use of cyber tools against Ukraine? What lessons should defenders learn?”
OODA Research Report: The Executive’s Guide to Commercial Use of Space: The rapid pace of innovation in space is producing real capabilities which can be leveraged for businesses in every sector of the economy. There is a growing excitement over the many developments in the space industry, giving rise to many questions about how these developments will impact markets overall. This guide is meant to assist strategic planners in assessing developments in the space sector.
The first section of this guide is our overall assessment of how changes in space may impact your business strategy in the near future (from now till about 3 years out). OODA analysts and experts reviewed innovation in the space industry in the context of business needs to produce this section.
The second section is a deep dive into many innovation areas that we intend on tracking at OODAloop.com As developments advance in these areas we will post more on our site and in our Daily Pulse newsletter.
To register for OODAcon, go to: OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption
It should go without saying that tracking threats are critical to inform your actions. This includes reading our OODA Daily Pulse, which will give you insights into the nature of the threat and risks to business operations.
Use OODA Loop to improve your decision-making in any competitive endeavor. Explore OODA Loop
The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Strategies, Business Intelligence, and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain. Explore Decision Intelligence
We track the rapidly changing world of technology with a focus on what leaders need to know to improve decision-making. The future of tech is being created now and we provide insights that enable optimized action based on the future of tech. We provide deep insights into Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Cloud Computing, Quantum Computing, Security Technology, and Space Technology. Explore Disruptive/Exponential Tech
Security and resiliency topics include geopolitical and cyber risk, cyber conflict, cyber diplomacy, cybersecurity, nation-state conflict, non-nation state conflict, global health, international crime, supply chain, and terrorism. Explore Security and Resiliency
The OODA community includes a broad group of decision-makers, analysts, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and tech creators. Interact with and learn from your peers via online monthly meetings, OODA Salons, the OODAcast, in-person conferences, and an online forum. For the most sensitive discussions interact with executive leaders via a closed Wickr channel. The community also has access to a member-only video library. Explore The OODA Community.
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence