Featured Image Source:  Universe Today

Background

Space debris has been a topic of conversation since a 2021 OODA Network member monthly conversation, when Leo Labs, a global, ground-based radar to track space junk business model was discussed in the context of the Russian anti-satellite [ASAT] test which broke up their Cosmos 1408 satellite, resulting in an in orbit, debris-generating event that put the International Space Station at risk.

In April 2020, A U.S Space Command press release also reported that a satellite “behaved similarly to previous Russian satellites that exhibited characteristics of a space weapon, conducted maneuvers near a U.S. Government satellite that would be interpreted as irresponsible and potentially threatening in any other domain. ” A subsequent follow-up statement in December 2020 described the event as having actually “demonstrated an on-orbit kinetic [ASAT] weapon.”

This post is an update on recent space debris events and headlines and ongoing research efforts and U.S.-based policy proposals.

Recent Space Debris Events and Media Coverage

Can’t believe I seen this and managed to catch it on camera!! Going over Paisley at 10pm☄️ #glasgow #paisley #meteor #comet #fireball @UKMeteorNetwork @Daily_Record pic.twitter.com/mH9o2062nI

— Vanessa (@_vangal) September 14, 2022

Space debris has been generating headlines for the last few weeks.  On September 14th, mysterious fireball that lit up the night sky was initially interpreted as satellite junk falling from space to earth:  “It burned long and bright over Ireland and Scotland before going for a permanent swim.

An unusually bright, long-lasting fireball blazed a path across the skies over Ireland and Scotland Wednesday night, prompting many to wonder if they were witnessing the demise of a SpaceX Starlink satellite in the atmosphere. Now experts say it was just a small chunk of an asteroid.

The International Meteor Organization, or IMO, got deluged with nearly 1,200 reports of fireball sightings from across the UK at 9:58 p.m. British Summer Time on Wednesday. The sizzling object burned with a bright, greenish-white hue for more than 20 seconds.

https://twitter.com/UKMeteorNetwork/status/1570461868019392512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1570461868019392512%7Ctwgr%5E8725a7791628b95386da3dbf3ae0e39df7d61b8f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnet.com%2Fscience%2Fspace%2Fno-that-mysterious-fireball-that-lit-up-the-night-sky-wasnt-space-junk%2F

But a check of the positions of Starlinks and other known space junk revealed nothing artificial could account for what turned to toast over the UK at that time.” (1)

In July, some experts feared that massive debris from a Chinese rocket could crash in populated parts of the U.S. while others advised that the space debris was no cause for panic.

In the end, the debris from the “large Chinese rocket re-entered Earth’s atmosphere over the Indian Ocean at 12:45 p.m. Eastern time, according to the U.S. Space Command.

Source:  Weibo

In an update posted on the social networking site Weibo (above), the Chinese Manned Space Agency said most of the debris had burned up on re-entry over the Sulu Sea, a body of water between the island of Borneo and the Philippines.  The possibility, however slight, that debris from the rocket could strike a populated area had led people around the world to track its trajectory for days. (2)

What Next?

Ongoing Research Efforts

“Design-for-Demise” concepts:  “New research points to increasing pollution in the upper atmosphere due to reentering satellites, rocket bodies, and other incoming spaceflight flotsam.  That troublesome trend is leading researchers to come up with mitigation proposals, one of which would use fabrication concepts to reduce the size of space debris pieces that make it to Earth.  The Aerospace Corporation, a California-based nonprofit company, has established a Space Safety Institute (SSI). One of SSI’s five focus areas is launch and reentry safety, and “Design for Demise” is an item the institute is paying attention to.

‘The goal for Design-for-Demise concepts is to use materials and design concepts in the construction of space hardware so that the hardware will demise in a controllable fashion during reentry,” said William Ailor of The Aerospace Corporation. “Ideally, the hardware would be reduced to a cloud of very small particles that would not be harmful to people on the ground or to an aircraft.'” (3)

NASA Funded Projects:  “As part of NASA’s efforts to address orbital debris, the agency is funding research proposals from three university-based teams over the next year to analyze the economic, social, and policy issues associated with space sustainability.  ‘Orbital debris is one of the great challenges of our era,’ said Bhavya Lal, associate administrator for the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) at NASA Headquarters in Washington. ‘Maintaining our ability to use space is critical to our economy, our national security, and our nation’s science and technology enterprise. These awards will fund research to help us understand the dynamics of the orbital environment and show how we can develop policies to limit debris creation and mitigate the impact of existing debris.’

NASA’s OTPS will make the teams’ results publicly available on the agency’s website. Selected teams also can work with the international Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as part of an international call for research proposals focused on orbital debris and space sustainability.

A panel of experts evaluated and selected the following three proposals:

‘Adaptive Space Governance and Decision-Support using Source-Sink Evolutionary Environmental Models,’ submitted by Richard Linares and Danielle Wood of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Moriba Jah of the University of Texas-Austin

‘An Integrated Assessment Model for Satellite Constellations and Orbital Debris,’ submitted by Akhil Rao of Middlebury College, Daniel Kaffine of the University of Colorado-Boulder, and Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation

‘Communication and Space Debris: Connecting with Public Knowledges and Identities,’ submitted by Patrice Kohl, Sergio Alvarez, and Philip Metzger of the University of Central Florida” (4)

Find more information about NASA’s OTPS at:  https://www.nasa.gov/offices/otps/home/

U.S. Policy Proposals Under Consideration

Senate Commerce Committee leaders push bill for space debris cleanup:  ” A bipartisan group of senior senators has introduced legislation designed to kickstart commercial development of technologies to clean up dangerous space junk, propelled by an interagency demonstration program that includes the Defense Department.  The Orbital Sustainability (ORBITS) Act [PDF] was introduced [on Mondy, September 12th] by the chair and ranking member of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Space and Science subcommittee, Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., and Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wy., respectively; and the full committee chair and ranking member, Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wa., and Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.  ‘Orbital debris remediation is one of the main areas where the US is falling behind other countries, and this bill would help put America back in a leadership position on making space more sustainable for all to use,’ enthused Secure World Foundation’s, Brian Weeden.

The bill would create a ‘first of its kind demonstration program’ that would ‘focus on research, development, and demonstration of technologies capable of safely carrying out successful Active Debris Remediation (ADR) missions and jumpstarting a new market for these services,’ according to a press release from Hickenlooper’s office.” (5)

FCC to fight space debris by requiring satellite disposal in 5 years or less:  “The Federal Communications Commission has a plan to minimize space junk by requiring low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to be disposed of no more than five years after being taken out of service.  A proposal released on [September 8th] by FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel would adopt ‘a first-ever rule requiring non-geostationary satellite operators to deorbit their satellites after the end of their operations to minimize the risk of collisions that would create debris.’ It’s scheduled for an FCC vote on September 29.  The five-year rule would be legally binding, unlike the current 25-year standard that’s based on a NASA recommendation proposed in the 1990s.

‘Currently, it is recommended that operators with objects in LEO ensure that their spacecraft are either removed from orbit immediately post-mission or left in an orbit that will decay and re-enter Earth’s atmosphere within no more than 25 years to mitigate the creation of more orbital debris. However, we believe it is no longer sustainable to leave satellites in LEO to deorbit over decades,’ the FCC proposal said.

The new rule ‘would require space station operators planning disposal through uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere to complete disposal as soon as practicable, and no more than five years following the end of a mission,’ an FCC fact sheet on the draft order said. The plan includes ‘a grandfathering period of two years for the new requirement to reduce any potential burden on operators.'” (6)

Join us at OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption, where contested space will be discussed on the following panel:

Future Wars:  Beyond Cyberconflict

John Robb, Global Guerrillas Report and Author of Brave New War

J.D. Work, Cyber threat expert and professor at Columbia, NDU, and MCU.

Yegor Dubynsky (invited), Ukraine Office of Digital Transformation

Panel description:  “Twenty years ago, cybersecurity experts warned of attacks against power grids and planes falling from the sky. They predicted a future that has not manifested itself yet. Will it? Or will the future of war be a conflict waged for the hearts and minds of social media users? What about the future of conflict in the contested domain of space – not only regarding assets in orbit but space exploration and resource exploitation? What lessons will Russia use from its extensive use of cyber tools against Ukraine? What lessons should defenders learn?”

Further Resources

For further OODA Loop coverage of Space, click here.

OODA Research Report: The Executive’s Guide to Commercial Use of Space:  The rapid pace of innovation in space is producing real capabilities which can be leveraged for businesses in every sector of the economy. There is growing excitement over the many developments in the space industry, giving rise to many questions about how these developments will impact markets overall. This guide is meant to assist strategic planners in assessing developments in the space sector.

The first section of this guide is our overall assessment of how changes in space may impact your business strategy in the near future (from now till about 3 years out).

The second section is a deep dive into many innovation areas that we intend on tracking at OODAloop.com As developments advance in these areas we will post more on our site and in our Daily Pulse newsletter.

OODAcon 2022

To register for OODAcon, go to: OODAcon 2022 – The Future of Exponential Innovation & Disruption

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