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Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Not to sound too clinical, but the network effects of the opiod epidemic have touched every household and family unit in the United States. It is the ultimate societal data fabric, encompassing us all. With the curbing of illicit fentanyl production in China and its import into the U.S. a central point of discussion between Xi and Biden in California this week, we have compiled our tracking of the topic relative to its initial inclusion in the OODA Almanac 2023.
We continue to track several thematics around the disruption of social integrity in the U.S. to include stress points like homelessness, crime, and under-reported risks like Fentanyl deaths. Fentanyl is of particular interest given the increasing number of deaths and the drug having strong ties to foreign illicit chemical supply chains including origination from China.
Cognitive infrastructure degradation and associated misinformation and influence campaigns also continue to be issues we will closely monitor in 2023 and beyond. Rather than build models for cognitive resilience including investment in education platforms, current initiatives are focused on platform banning which creates an environment of cat and mouse rather than addressing root causes.
Our world is becoming a house of mirrors as years of misinformation and disinformation and attacks on the credibility of institutions have eroded trust. Lines between fact and opinion are increasingly blurred in the media and sponsored content playbooks dominate what were previously technology-focused platforms. Distractions are prevalent and new platforms including the metaverse will encourage withdrawal from reality anytime and anywhere. Even our best approaches at conversational AI demonstrate inherent tendencies to manufacture facts and create a faux authority to include manufactured citations. This will create unprecedented challenges and the development of new technologies and approaches.
What should the U.S. learn from some of the challenges faced by the cognitive infrastructure of other countries? Following are global updates (since our initial analysis over the course of 2022) of formal nation-state cognitive infrastructure efforts, for good and for ill, and conditions on the ground in various countries, including:
The United States has imposed sanctions on 25 China-based entities and individuals involved in the production of chemicals used to make the potent opioid, fentanyl, which plays a significant role in the US drug crisis. The US alleges that the fentanyl supply chain often starts with Chinese chemical companies. China has criticized the sanctions, arguing that the fentanyl crisis is rooted in the US itself and that they are actively combating drug crimes and controlling precursor chemicals. Fentanyl has led to a surge in opioid addiction and overdose deaths in the US, with a record 109,680 deaths in 2022. The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against a China-based network involved in manufacturing and distributing fentanyl precursors and other illegal drugs, affecting entities and individuals in China and Canada. The US Justice Department has also unsealed indictments against Chinese companies and employees related to fentanyl and methamphetamine production, opioid distribution, and precursor chemical sales.
Chinese chemicals companies suspected of supplying the base substances to produce fentanyl to overseas drug cartels have earned tens of millions of dollars in cryptocurrencies, according to two blockchain research firms, highlighting the criminal use of digital assets in China despite Beijing’s ban. Elliptic, a London-based blockchain analytics firm, said in a report published on Wednesday that it had identified more than 90 China-based chemicals companies that were willing to sell them fentanyl precursors and to take cryptocurrencies as a payment method. The cryptocurrency wallets used by these companies have received thousands of payments over the past few years, totalling more than US$27 million, according to the firm. The most popular crypto token accepted by these suppliers is bitcoin, followed by the stablecoin Tether (USDT), Elliptic said in the report. In a separate report also published on Wednesday, blockchain research firm Chainalysis said crypto addresses associated with China-based sellers of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, a powerful narcotic that has become part of a widespread opioid crisis in the US, have received more than US$37.8 million worth of cryptocurrency since 2018.
The United States has imposed sanctions on 25 China-based entities and individuals involved in the production of chemicals used to make the potent opioid, fentanyl, which plays a significant role in the US drug crisis. The US alleges that the fentanyl supply chain often starts with Chinese chemical companies. China has criticized the sanctions, arguing that the fentanyl crisis is rooted in the US itself and that they are actively combating drug crimes and controlling precursor chemicals. Fentanyl has led to a surge in opioid addiction and overdose deaths in the US, with a record 109,680 deaths in 2022. The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against a China-based network involved in manufacturing and distributing fentanyl precursors and other illegal drugs, affecting entities and individuals in China and Canada. The US Justice Department has also unsealed indictments against Chinese companies and employees related to fentanyl and methamphetamine production, opioid distribution, and precursor chemical sales.
The U.S. government wants stronger efforts to stem the flow of heroin and fentanyl from Mexico and is critical of a dip in opium poppy eradication, Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan said.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence