Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Recent reports peg the final number of fatalities at the centuries-old Hajj Pilgrimage to the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia at anywhere from 550 to 645 people (and rising). For now, we are framing a mass casualty event over an annual period, which is technically debatable. However, for our OODA Loop purposes, the death toll in Makkah in 2024 is now in a photo finish with Arizona’s confirmed 645 heat-associated deaths in metro Phoenix (Maricopa County) – over the course of 2023 – as the largest mass casualty events induced by wet bulb conditions to date of The Anthropocene.
Temperatures reached 125 degrees Fahrenheit during this year’s pilgrimage to Mecca, through the desert of Saudi Arabia.
At least 320 of the dead are from Egypt and Saudi officials report treating more than 2,000 people for heat stress
Average dry temperatures in Makkah escalated by 0.4°C per decade, over a 40-year period, as per the Saudi study
Earlier this year, a study by Saudi scientists warned that the area around Makkah has been experiencing rising temperatures due to climate change. This could have profound implications for the health of Hajis. Escalating climate-related health risks for Hajj pilgrims to Mecca “was designed to elucidate the interplay between increasing ambient temperatures, the incidence of HRIs (heat-related illnesses) and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies during the annual Hajj mass gathering over a 40-year period”. The experts utilized historical records spanning four decades of meteorological data. They also looked at the rates of heat stroke (HS) and heat exhaustion (HE) during the Hajj.
They then “analyzed temporal variations in weather conditions over two distinct Hajj hot cycles and correlated it with the occurrence of HS and HE. The effectiveness of deployed mitigation measures in alleviating health vulnerabilities between the two cycles was also assessed”.
The results revealed that throughout the study period, average dry and wet bulb temperatures in Makkah escalated by 0.4°C and 0.2°C per decade, respectively. ‘Wet-bulb temperature’ usually combines dry air temperature with humidity. The experts also found that both temperatures were strongly correlated with the incidence of HS and HE. “Intriguingly, our data suggest that the intensifying heat may be outpacing current mitigation efforts, signaling a need to recalibrate existing approaches,” the scientists wrote.
They also pointed out that the Hajj, which sees 2 million pilgrims from 180 countries participate, “serves as a unique microcosm for studying heat-related risks”. “This international diversity means that our findings are not only locally relevant but can also be generalized to a global population. Therefore, these insights hold immense value for the planning and refinement of public health interventions worldwide,” the scientists said.
Public health officials in Arizona’s most populous county on Wednesday reported they confirmed a staggering 645 heat-associated deaths last year — more than 50% higher than 2022 and another consecutive annual record in arid metro Phoenix. The numbers in the preliminary report by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health alarmed officials in America’s hottest big metro, raising concerns about how to better protect vulnerable groups such as homeless people and older adults from the blistering summer heat. The report said two-thirds of the county’s heat-related deaths in 2023 were people 50 years or older, and 71% were on days the National Weather Service issued an excessive heat warning.
National Weather Service Alerts can be found at this link. The WP has put together a Days of dangerous heat in your city interactive feature as part of the newspaper’s Climate Lab.
For a deeper dive into the quantitative science and global demographics of the issues discussed in this post, these two articles from the WP are the best in class analysis we have found to date:
https://oodaloop.com/archive/2024/06/18/a-dispatch-from-the-ministry-of-the-future-wet-bulb-heat-and-humidity-conditions-in-the-u-s/
The Anthropocene is a proposed geological epoch that marks the period during which human activity has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment. This term, derived from the Greek words “anthropos” (human) and “cene” (new), underscores the significant and often irreversible impact humans have had on the Earth’s geology and ecosystems.
The concept of the Anthropocene is not just a scientific classification but a multidisciplinary one, encompassing fields such as geology, climatology, history, and ethics. It highlights the profound ways in which humans have reshaped the natural world through activities such as massive deforestation, biodiversity loss, urbanization, and the pervasive spread of pollutants.
The Anthropocene is often discussed in the context of climate change, as it encapsulates the environmental challenges that are symptomatic of extensive industrialization and modernization. It serves as a call to action, urging a collective reflection on our environmental responsibilities and the need for sustainable practices that respect the Earth’s ecological limits.
In the broader discourse, the Anthropocene raises important questions about inequality, governance, and our philosophical relationship with nature. It challenges us to think critically about how we, as a global community, can manage our planet’s resources wisely to ensure a sustainable future for all.
This epoch, while still unofficial in the geological time scale, has sparked significant debate and research, pushing us to reconsider our role and impact on the planet. It’s a concept that invites us to look at the past and future with a sense of responsibility and urgency, recognizing that our actions today will define the legacy we leave for future generations.
Other previous Installments in our Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future Series:
The Future of the Climate Crisis – Recent Impacts and Promising Innovation Strategies: While cyberwars may continue to take center stage in the global polycrisis, the climate crisis holds a pole position, arguably only threatened in its existential threat dominance by negative prognostications of the future impact of artificial intelligence. For now, the climate crisis continues to manifest in a very future, real-world manner – with recent quantifiable impacts of record and promising innovation strategies, some technological. Details here.
“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”: Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. We try not to be blindly optimistic, however, and steer away from the Silicon Valley-fueled “techno-utopianism” that has us in trouble with some of the unintended consequences of the internet. OODA Network Member Dr. Lisa Porter describes” a risk-based approach that recognizes I am always making a tradeoff. And to do it with my eyes open.” We think that captures what we are trying to provide here daily. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we see it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our network members and their organizations. So, with that: Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking
Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution
Track Technology-Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
Planning for a Continuous Pandemic Landscape: COVID-19’s geopolitical repercussions are evident, with recent assessments pointing to China’s role in its spread. Regardless of the exact origins, the same conditions that allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic persist today. Therefore, businesses must be prepared for consistent health disruptions, implying that a substantial portion of the workforce might always operate remotely, even though face-to-face interactions remain vital for critical decisions. See: COVID Sensemaking
The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence