Summary

If 2021 felt like an inflection point (as geopolitical strategy intersected with technology-driven innovation and tactics), 2022 was back to the future:  technology is now the clear exponential driver of tactical maneuvers for military and geographic competitive advantage – all the while referencing nationalistic, technology-focused strategic blueprints.

The goal? The strategic geopolitical and technological domination of:

• Newly Contested Arenas (space, the Arctic, emerging technologies, and climate change-driven resources).
• Information Warfare (cyberattacks, ransomware, and influence campaigns); and
• Gray Zone/Hybrid Warfare (kinetic maneuvers in service of larger influence campaigns and cyberwar strategy)

See below for some of the noteworthy events from and critical perspectives on the last year in the intersection of geopolitical risk and technology.

Newly Contested Arenas (Space, The Arctic, Emerging Technologies, and Climate Resources)

Space

• OODA Network Member Update on Cybersecurity and Space
• OODA Loop 2022: The Future of Commercial Space
• The James Webb Space Telescope Launch (On-Demand Live Stream) and the Promise of Spinoff Technology
• Space Force Authorized to Commission Civilian Cyber Talent as Officers Using Constructive Service Credit
• Space Security and Offensive and Defensive Counterspace Capabilities
• Space Force Authorized to Commission Civilian Cyber Talent as Officers Using Constructive Service Credit
• Optical Communications Innovation and Laser Satellites are the Future of Space Communications 
• FCC Proposes New “Space Bureau” to Meet the Challenges of Commercial Space

The Arctic

• The United States’ National Strategy for the Arctic Region
•  What Exactly is the PRC up to in the Artic?
• Cyber Espionage Likely Supporting China’s Arctic Aspirations

Emerging Technologies

• A Proactive National Technology Strategy in the Great Power Competition with China
• Biden-Harris Administration’s National Security Strategy
• U.S. aims to hobble China’s chip industry with sweeping new export rules
• China readying $143 billion package for its chip firms in face of U.S. curbs
• Japan to Join US Effort to Tighten Chip Exports to China
• Analysis: China’s massive older chip tech buildup raises U.S. concern
• China starts WTO dispute against U.S. chip export curbs
• CSET on China’s Advanced AI Research and the China AI “Watchboard” Pilot Program
• The Great GPT Leap is Disruption in Plain Sight
• OODA Loop 2022: The Past, Present, and Future of ChatGPT, GPT-3, OpenAI, NLMs, and NLP
• GPT-3, Neural Language Models and The Risks of Radicalization
• The Current AI Innovation Hype Cycle: Large Language Models, OpenAI’s GPT-3 and DeepMind’s RETRO
• Is Bitcoin a National Security Risk?
• Chinese Company Outs U.S. Cyber Espionage and Sends a Message
• Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruptions – An Update
• NSA Releases Series on Protecting DoD Microelectronics From Adversary Influence
• In 2022, the Federal Ecosystem for Accelerating (at Scale) Quantum Computational Power and Quantum Networks Emerged
• “The Greatest Cryptographic Migration in History”: The Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act to be Signed into Law
• President Biden Signs Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act into Law
• The Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act Builds on National Security Memorandum 8
• The Current State of the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Shows Signs of Strategic Strength
• What Next? Dr. Melissa Flagg and Dr. Jennifer Buss on the Chips and Science Act of 2022 (Part 1 of 2)
• What Next? Dr. Melissa Flagg and Dr. Jennifer Buss on the Chips and Science Act of 2022 (Part 2 of 2)
• Commerce, NIST, and Implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022
• CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China
• U.S. Chip Fabs “Shovel Ready” as Soon as CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 Signed into Law Today
• No Time to Waste: The Pentagon Needs an Innovation Overhaul
• With the U.S. Delegation in Asia, We Revisit our OODA Stratigame Insights about Taiwan
• Part I: DARPA, The Valley of Death, and Answering the Crucial Project Questions Upfront
• Part II: DARPA, NASA, IARPA, DoD, Courage, Leadership, and Aurelius’ Meditations
• The Next Phase of the DARPA Electronics Resurgence Initiative (ERI): The Joint University Microelectronics Program 2.0 (JUMP 2.0)

Climate Resources

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/12/12/the-water-wars-in-france-eerily-resemble-scenes-from-the-ministry-of-the-future/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/09/01/the-worst-case-scenario-is-the-least-probable-and-other-cognitive-biases-global-drought-catastrophic-monsoons-and-floods-and-zombie-ice/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/03/14/open-source-intelligence-resources-the-usgs-2022-list-of-critical-minerals/

Gray Zone/Hybrid Warfare

• China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices
• No, The World Is Not Destined to Live Under PRC or Russian Rule
• Additional Context on OODA Reporting on Russia’s Military-Technical Maneuvers in Europe
• Look to Sweden for Innovative Offensive and Defensive Signals from Europe
• National Cognitive Infrastructure Protection: What Can We Learn from the Swedish Psychological Defence Authority?
• Social Media Platforms Remain a Force Multiplier for Information-Based Threats
• A Warning for the U.S. Chip Industry: Russian Retaliation Could Hit Supply of Key Materials
• Department of Defense Acknowledges that Contractor Consolidation has Created a National Security Risk
• In 2022, the Strategic Impact of Global Intermodal Supply Chain Gridlock on IT Supply Chain Remains High
• The World’s Largest Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation Project
• Fact Sheet: Department of Defense Releases New Report on Safeguarding our National Security by Promoting Competition in the Defense Industrial Base
• Opportunities for Advantage: Maintaining a Strong “Stay Rate” in the U.S. for International STEM PhD Graduates
• DoD Seeking Innovative Ideas on Logistics For Modern Times
• Biden-Harris Administration Expands Public-Private Cybersecurity Partnership to Chemical Sector
• US Gov Issues Software Supply Chain Security Guidance for Customers
• NSA Releases Series on Protecting DoD Microelectronics from Adversary Influence
• ‘Normality Will Not Return’: OODA Network Member Brian Jenkins on Plagues and Their Aftermath
• OODA Network Member Brian Jenkins on Renewed Bioterror Concerns, but ‘No Mortal Blow’

Russia and the War in Ukraine

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/03/13/we-are-in-the-first-open-source-intelligence-war/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/03/11/dr-scott-shumate-profiles-russian-president-vladimir-putin/

• Chip exports to Russia plunged by 90% after curbs-U.S. official
• Russian Attack On Undersea Energy Infrastructure Means Businesses Should Prepare For More Infrastructure Attacks (including Space and Undersea comms)
• North Korea sold arms to Russia’s Wagner group, US says
• Russia ready to resume gas supply to Europe via Yamal-Europe gas pipeline
• Kremlin warns of a ‘long’ war after Biden offers more support on Zelensky’s visit to US
• Russia-Ukraine crisis replaces Covid as the top risk to global supply chains, Moody’s says
• Russia hits back at Western sanctions with export ban
• Biden’s Middle East allies change tune on Ukraine war as conflict escalates
• Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finland against Nato membership
• A lesson from the war in Ukraine: Secure our semiconductor supply chains
• Russia downed satellite internet in Ukraine -Western officials

China

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/10/17/the-20th-cpc-national-congress-anoints-21st-century-chinese-emperor-but-does-he-have-no-clothes/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/01/13/no-the-world-is-not-destined-to-live-under-prc-rule/

• China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices
• Department of Defense Releases New Report on Safeguarding our National Security by Promoting Competition in the Defense Industrial Base
• Opportunities for Advantage: Maintaining a Strong “Stay Rate” in the U.S. for International STEM PhD Graduates
• China Publishes Its Vision for Internet Harmony

Information Warfare

• ‘The big one is coming’: tech giant’s stark Russia warning
• What The C-Suite Needs To Know About The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
• The Cyber Surveillance Thrives Despite Companies’ Setbacks
• Will Cybercriminals Increase The Use Of Wipers in 2023?
• The ASML Holding’s Factory Fire and Specialized Manufacturing Equipment for Semiconductor Production
• The Air Force “Need for Speed”: The End of the Requirements Up Front Model, Software Factories and Digital Transformation
• Final Plan for Federal Zero Trust Strategy through 2024 Released by White House and OMB
• National Security Memorandum 8 Gives NSA Director Centralized National Security Systems Portfolio
• Memorandum on Improving the Cybersecurity of National Security, Department of Defense, and Intelligence Community Systems
• Jet Suit Testing by the British Royal Navy and Gravity Industries
• NIST updates guidance for cybersecurity supply chain risk management
• NSA sets 2035 post-quantum cryptography deadline; Joint Advisories with CISA and FBI
• OODA Loop – Pro-Russian groups are raising funds in crypto to prop up military operations and evade U.S. sanctions
• EU’s Russian Crypto Ban Confirmed as Bloc Tightens Sanctions
• NSA, CISA, FBI Reveal Top CVEs Exploited by Chinese State-Sponsored Actors
• Russian hackers targeted petroleum refining company in NATO state
• Russian hackers accessed JFK airport taxi software: Port Authority

Further OODA Loop Resources

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2021/11/22/scenario-planning-for-global-computer-chip-supply-chain-disruption-results-of-an-ooda-stratigame/

https://oodaloop.com/research/ooda-research-report-the-executives-guide-to-commercial-use-of-space/

 

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/01/19/ooda-salon-19-january-2022-commercial-technology-and-national-security/

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