According to the Executive Chairman of the X-Prize Foundation and Singularity University Executive Founder Peter H. Diamandis, years of speculative design of (the long-promised by science-fiction) flying car will become a reality by 2030 – possibly as early as 2025.  Details here. 

Sections of this Post

1. Flying Car Leaders:  Archer & Joby Aviation
   • Archer Aviation
   • Joby Aviation
2. Lilium (Germany)
3. Beta (Vermont, USA)
4. Volocopter (Germany)
5. What Next?
   • eVTOLS and the Future of Transportation
6. Additional OODA Loop Resources

Flying Car Leaders:  Archer & Joby Aviation

“We know that air taxis will be in high demand when the Los Angeles Olympics get underway in 2028. We may see some of them in the years leading up, but nowhere near the scale in 2028.” 
                                                                                                                                                                                              – Former acting FAA Administrator Billy Nolen about the future timeline. 

Per Diamandis:  “Flying cars are finally here.  You can call them “eVTOLs” (electric vertical take-off/landing) or “air taxis,” I personally will call them flying cars.  After decades of waiting, the convergence of a few key technologies and factors will enable commercial service to start in 2025:

1. DEP or direct electric propulsion: special electric motors

2. Batteries: higher energy density, cheaper batteries, mainly driven by Tesla

3. Materials: lightweight, strong materials

4. Sensors: a new generation of sensors

5. Computation/AI: the ability to integrate all data for safe flights

6. Regulatory Support: governments are finally ready to license this tech

Regarding this last bullet, in November 2022, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed new rules that would help pave the way for commercial air taxi operations by 2025, adding something called ‘powered-lift’ operations to its regulations. Industry reports suggest a $30 billion marketplace potential by 2030.”

Archer Aviation

“Midnight”:  Archer Aviation’s flying car design  (Image Source:  Archer Aviation)

According to Diamandis:  “So, when can we expect to see Archer’s Midnight overhead?   The company has set an ambitious goal of bringing the Midnight eVTOL to market by 2025. In partnership with Atlantic Aviation, Archer is developing electric aircraft infrastructure at existing assets, including Santa Monica Municipal Airport (SMO). Early launch markets will focus on highly congested cities such as Los Angeles, New York, and Miami, with initial routes connecting airports to city centers. As the availability of the Midnight increases, services will expand to other locations across Atlantic’s portfolio.  To illustrate the transformative potential of eVTOL technology, consider a trip from Santa Monica to Malibu. While this 12-mile journey could take over an hour by road, an air taxi would cover the distance in a mere five minutes, with each passenger paying roughly $30 to $40—less than the cost of a rideshare vehicle.”

Joby Aviation

The Complete Flight Profile of Joby’s eVTOL Aircraft (Video Source:  Joby Aviation)

Diamandis highlighted Joby Aviation’s impressive pedigree in this nascent industry:  “Founded 14 years ago, Joby was the first serious flying car company and the first to go public in August 2021 for $4.5 billion. Even more impressive, in 2022, Joby distinguished itself as the first eVTOL firm to receive US airworthiness certification—a notable badge of honor in a burgeoning industry.  Among the main investors bolstering Joby’s successes are Delta Air Lines and the automotive giant Toyota (which has actively aided the air taxi manufacturer in its plans to erect a factory in Ohio).

On future production and launch, Diamandis writes:  “In September 2023, Joby signed a significant contract with the US Air Force, valued at up to $131 million, and delivered its first eVTOL to Edwards Air Force Base in Southern California. This partnership involves collaboration with NASA to research the aircraft’s performance in urban environments, providing valuable insights for air taxi development and the FAA.  Joby recently announced plans for a $500 million manufacturing plant in Ohio, set to begin construction in 2024, with the capacity to produce up to 500 aircraft annually.  CEO JoeBen Bevirt envisions Joby’s eVTOLs as an integral part of aerial ridesharing networks by 2025.”

Diamandis has a follow-up post which reviews the eVTOLs efforts of three more companies in the market at this link: From Sci-Fi to Sky-High:  Flying Cars Are Here 

Following are the speculative design visualizations from these companies of their future eVTOLs flying cars:

Lilium (Germany)

Lithium Flight Test  (Video Source:  Lithium) 

Beta (Vermont, USA)

https://youtu.be/ionnxZOUgM0?si=tSfXD5fA19adx8br

October 2023: Beta’s Electric Airplane Lands at Air Force Base at Air Force Base in Florida (Video Source: Future Nevada) 

Volocopter (Germany)

Volocopter’s Volocity Air Taxi (Image Source: Volocopter)  

 

What Next?

eVTOLS and the Future of Transportation

The emergence of Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) air taxis, often colloquially referred to as “flying cars,” represents a significant leap forward in the evolution of urban mobility. These vehicles are not just an incremental improvement over existing transportation methods; they are a radical reimagining of how we move through and interact with our urban environments: 

1. eVTOLs address some of the most pressing challenges modern cities face: congestion, air pollution, and the inefficiency of ground-based transportation. By taking advantage of the vertical dimension, eVTOLs can significantly reduce the reliance on our overcrowded road networks. This shift has the potential to decrease traffic congestion, thereby reducing the time spent commuting and enhancing the quality of urban life. The environmental impact of transportation could also be mitigated as these air taxis are designed to operate on electric power, contributing to a reduction in urban air pollution and the overall carbon footprint of the transportation sector. 
2. Integrating eVTOLs into the urban transportation infrastructure could catalyze a new era of economic growth and innovation. Developing vertiports and other supporting infrastructure offers opportunities for urban planning and development, potentially leading to the rise of new economic zones and revitalizing underutilized urban areas. This infrastructure development, coupled with the high-tech nature of eVTOLs, could spur job creation in fields ranging from aerospace engineering to service and maintenance, software development, and various customer service roles associated with new mobility services. 
3. From a technological standpoint, the advancement of eVTOLs is closely linked to improvements in battery technology, materials science, and autonomous flight systems. These advancements make eVTOLs feasible and enhance their safety and efficiency. As battery technology continues to evolve, the range and speed of eVTOLs will increase, making them a viable option for a broader range of travel distances and further integrating them into the multi-modal transport networks.  

The impact of eVTOLs extends beyond mere transportation. They represent a transformative technology that challenges our conventional notions of mobility and urban space.  The ability to travel by air on demand could change where we choose to live and work, potentially easing the pressure on overpopulated urban centers and leading to more distributed urban development patterns. This could have profound implications for real estate, commercial development, and even social dynamics as the distinction between urban and suburban areas becomes increasingly blurred.  eVTOL air taxis are not just an exciting technological innovation; they are a pivotal element in the future of transportation, with the potential to reshape cities, economies, and the environment. 

NOTE:  This OODA Loop Original Analysis was partially generated with the cognitive augmentation of and in collaboration with ALTzero Project – MattGPT.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

For the entire OODA Loop Speculative Design Series, go to OODA Loop | Speculative Design

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