In the weeks ahead, you will see more Original Analysis of our working risk assessment/hypothesis for the current maritime conflict in the Red Sea:  “The probability that a Houthi-led drone swarm sinks a US Naval Vessel (even an aircraft carrier?) or a naval vessel from the U.K or other operational partner in the Red Sea is not zero percent.  The impact if they succeed: Geopolitics is plummeted into WWIII.”  If you are wondering about the strategic imperative and geopolitical incentive structures vis a vis the Red Sea, consider this: “15% of global trade passes exactly through the Red Sea.” In this post: a sampling of recent the Houthi’s internet-based viral video marketing efforts  – with an eery Hollywood-style production value touting their maritime USV capabilities  – and an excellent rerun from this last Sunday of the high-level situational awareness report by CBS News/60 Minutes from the deck of the U.S.S. Eisenhower currently deployed in the Red Sea.

The Houthi’s Hollywood-style Branding Campaign

Watch the world change:  The Houthis are showing off their new USV in a release video that would make Steve Jobs proud.  (Source:  Dan Magy, Firestorm)

Incredible footage of multiple USV strikes carried out by the Houthis against the Tutor in the Red Sea. (Source:  Dan Magy, Firestorm)

Situational Awareness from the Deck of the USS Eisenhower Deployed in the Red Sea

Inside look at U.S. Navy response to Houthi Red Sea attacks | 60 Minutes

60 Minutes Overtime:  On deck with the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea

What Next?

The Recoding of War Doctrine and the Disintermediation of the Theater of Operation by the Swarm Architecture

Future scenarios involving the Recoding of War Doctrine and the Disintermediation of the Theater of Operation by the Swarm Architecture are transformative, heralding a shift in the very fabric of military strategy and operations. While still evolving, these concepts suggest a future where warfare is increasingly dominated by autonomous systems and decentralized decision-making, fundamentally altering traditional battlefield dynamics.  Find theoretical frameworks and real-world case studies here.

Undersea Communications Cables and the Seabed Continue to Evolve as Threat Vectors and Contested Arenas

Back in March 2023, we provided an analysis of  “Undersea Telecommunications Cables and the Seabed as Geopolitical Contested Arenas” which, at the time, we framed relative to a great power competition with China:  “Along with Africa and the Arctic, add the growing tensions between the U.S. and China about undersea cable deployment and seabed warfare to your geopolitical tracking, risk awareness, and strategic impacts for your business or organization.” Enter the Houthis – who allegedly have opened an undersea-based front in the conflict in the Middle East.  Details here.

The Defense Intelligence Agency on the Iranian-backed Drone Power of Russia and the Houthis

Two recently declassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports extensively detail the Iranian-backed drone capabilities fueling the reconfiguration of global warfare into a drone swarm architecture – fueling what John Robb has framed as the future:  asymmetric, non-nation-state kinetic capabilities organized into drone swarms enhancing the ability for warfighting capabilities “networked tribes” and “global guerrillas” usurping that of traditional military doctrine and the monopoly on the threat of violent conflict traditionally held exclusively by nation-states.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

For previous OODA Loop News Briefs and Original Analysis on this topic, see:

OODA Loop|Drones  OODA Loop | Swarm

In the Wake of the Iranian Drone Swarm and Ballistic Missile Attack on Israel: Future Scenarios:  The war in Ukraine was the beginning, and the Iranian attack on Israel by a swarm of over 200 drones and ballistic missiles is now the tail end of an elongated inflection point – propelling geopolitics into a new era of 21st Century “Algorithmic Warfare” based on asymmetric attrition-based systems and drone-based swarm architectures. A tick-tock of developments and links to live update resources in Israel can be found here – followed by an OODA Loop Scenario analysis.

Swarm Intelligence and Network Swarms: Future Scenarios:  The concept of network swarms, particularly in modern conflict and security, represents a fascinating and somewhat disorientating evolution in warfare and strategic operations. The implications of swarm intelligence also extend beyond these immediate scenarios in technology and defense. They challenge our traditional notions of intelligence, control, and organization, suggesting that decentralized and distributed approaches can outperform centralized and hierarchical ones in certain contexts. Find our analysis here.

The Drone Swarm Architecture Will Transform U.S. Warfighting Capacity:  Lieutenant General (ret.) Clint Hinote, U.S. Air Force and Major General (ret.) Mick Ryan, Australian Army – Special Advisors to the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) – have co-authored a paper on “Uncrewed systems—which are now undergoing a form of Cambrian Explosion in capability, quality, and quantity…these systems are disrupting how combatants are considering risk, cost, and authority on the modern battlefield.” Find their framing and insights here.

Drones and Port Security:  OODA Network Members John P. Sullivan and George W. Davis, along with co-author Tom Adams, have penned a report based on a geospatial security assessment for the Port of Brownsville, Texas (which “holds the distinction of being the sole deep-water port situated directly on the US-Mexico border”). Details of the report are found here.

The Network Swarm Attack on Israel and the Escalating Global Networked War:  Intelligence Failure? Black Swan? Gray Rhino? Systemic Failure? An entropic, sclerotic Israeli political system? The geopolitical and regional power context for the recent surprise, large-scale scale, and violent Hamas attack on Israel may prove to be “all of the above.” What is clear is the attack was designed as a large-scale, kinetic, and digital “network swarm” – which now opens up a new, “formal” kinetic front in the ongoing, global networked war in the Middle East. Swarm dynamics are a crucial mental model – which we apply here to the Hamas network swarm attack on Israel.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief

Israel and Gaza: The horrors of war in the region are also giving rise to uncertainty in markets, but for now, it seems the war will not spread throughout the Middle East. Many initiatives between Israel and Arab/Persian nations have been stalled due to the war.

Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, spurs political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling an aging society’s economic and social ramifications. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking

Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has caused regional issues that affect global cyberspace. Every significant event has cyber implications, so leaders need to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront unpredictable external threats. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. Regardless of their size, all organizations should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning