As reported by the Financial Times, the convergence of trade wars, geopolitical instability, and disruptive technologies is straining traditional scenario planning methods, forcing organizations to rethink their models for an increasingly volatile and ambiguous future. OODA Loop has been grappling with these issues for a while, which we capture in a compilation of our recent OODA Loop scenario planning “in practice” analyses, and recent posts designed as resources for your organization’s pivot vis-à-vis scenario planning and strategic foresight practices within your organization.

Why This Matters

In a world grappling with accelerating geopolitical tensions, economic decoupling, and technological disruption, organizations that rely on outdated scenario planning approaches risk being blindsided by cascading, complex crises.

• Scenario planning is being tested across sectors, from supply chains to national security, due to cascading disruptions.
• New approaches integrating AI, wargaming, and foresight methodologies are being trialed to address the paradox of early warning and decision paralysis.
• Firms, governments, and investors are now looking beyond linear models, adopting dynamic and stress-tested scenario exercises.

Key Points

• Trade Wars and Financial Turbulence: The rapid escalation of U.S.-China tensions, especially around tariffs and tech decoupling, is forcing supply chain managers and policymakers to model extreme disruptions.
• Cryptocurrency and the Dollar Retreat: The weaponization of financial systems is driving interest in decentralized finance and alternative currencies, testing the assumptions behind global reserve currency dynamics.
• Ports as Early Warning Systems: Observations at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are serving as frontline indicators of supply chain stress and tariff shocks.
• Scenario Planning Gaps in U.S. Threat Matrices: Existing U.S. threat scenarios often fail to incorporate the compounding effects of economic, technological, and military disruptions simultaneously.
• New Tools Like GPTs and LLMs: Planners are experimenting with generative AI models to augment scenario planning and wargaming, though challenges remain around reliability and decision-useful outputs.

Summary: “Scenario Planning is Getting a Stress Test”

Traditional scenario planning is being overwhelmed by a perfect storm of geopolitical conflicts, financial decoupling, trade wars, and emerging technologies.

Organizations are struggling to adapt legacy models to today’s rapidly evolving and interconnected risks. New methods—ranging from wargaming to AI-augmented scenario generation—are being tested, but many decision-makers still face the paradox of early warning signals without timely, decisive action.

For a deeper dive, see the recent Financial Times article: Scenario planning is getting a stress test.

What Next?

• Scenario planners will need to integrate hybrid methodologies, combining geopolitical forecasting, wargaming, and AI-driven models to capture complex feedback loops and cascading crises.
• Governments may need to update national threat matrices to include more dynamic and fast-moving economic and technological warfare scenarios, as the current frameworks risk being outdated.
• Corporate boards and investors should embrace scenario stress tests as routine exercises rather than optional activities, embedding them into strategic planning and risk governance.
• Emerging best practices will likely incorporate ‘Swarm Intelligence’ and cross-domain simulations, enhancing agility in planning amid uncertainty.

OODA Loop: Scenario Planning and Foresight Strategy “In Practice”

1. The Great Dollar Retreat?: Explores the strategic implications of financial decoupling, the rise of cryptocurrencies, and the erosion of the U.S. dollar’s global dominance.
2. Ports Signal Tariff Turbulence: Uses port data from Los Angeles and Long Beach as real-time indicators of global trade disruptions and tariff-driven economic stress.
3. Xi Jinping’s Last Decision: Applies wargaming methods to model the risk of full-spectrum economic warfare between the U.S. and China, identifying gaps in current threat matrices.
4. The New Tariff Era – Navigating Disruption with Strategic Foresight: Advocates for integrating strategic foresight into corporate and policy planning to navigate unpredictable and disruptive tariff regimes.
5. Strategic Access to Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Metals: Geopolitical Risks, Competition, and Supply Chain Resilience: Discusses geopolitical competition over minerals as a structural supply chain risk, emphasizing its role in energy, defense, and tech scenarios – with an emphasis on integration of mineral access risks into corporate scenario planning, emphasizing the need for resilience strategies in light of state-led economic coercion and chokepoint disruptions.
6. Swarm Intelligence and Network Swarms: Future Scenarios: Explores the use of swarm intelligence and network swarms as future-forward tools for enhancing dynamic scenario planning and decision agility.

Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption: Results of an OODA Stratigame

The OODA Stratigame on chip supply chain disruption revealed how geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and policy interventions could create cascading, global semiconductor shortages.

Participants stress-tested various scenarios, identifying vulnerabilities in concentration risks, chokepoints, and a lack of strategic reserves. The game highlighted the need for diversified sourcing, stockpiling critical technologies, and integrating semiconductor disruption scenarios into national security planning.

See: Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption: Results of an OODA Stratigame

OODA Loop: Scenario Planning – Innovation, and Best-in-Class Methodologies

• Scenario Planning is Getting a Stress Test (Financial Times): A global survey of how traditional scenario planning is being stretched by geopolitical instability, trade wars, AI disruption, and financial decoupling. Organizations are scrambling to adopt stress-tested models better suited for cascading, systemic crises.
• Foresight Strategy and Scenario Planning: Methods and Models for Assessing Future Risks and Opportunities: A primer on scenario methodologies, offering structured frameworks and best practices for institutional foresight and stress-testing.
• Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for Emerging Critical Risks: A Framework for Anticipation and Adaptation: A deeper dive into identifying “emerging critical risks” and structuring foresight tools around adaptation and resilience.
• Scenario Planning and the Paradox of Warning: “War Game”, Current Scenarios and the U.S. Threat Matrix: Analyzes how institutions often detect strategic threats early but fail to act decisively—a paradox exacerbated by rigid scenario processes and bureaucratic inertia.
• Applying GPTs and LLMs to Scenario Planning: Evaluates the use of large language models in scenario generation, outlining their potential in ideation and storytelling while cautioning about reliability risks.

OODA Loop Scenario Planning Resources: Comparison Table