Global organizations face an increasingly complex web of emerging risks with no historical precedent. To tackle this uncertainty, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has unveiled a forward-thinking methodology that leverages strategic foresight, multidisciplinary collaboration, and scenario-based modeling to identify, understand, and manage critical risks before they disrupt. Through tools like horizon scanning and Risk-World simulations, this framework equips public and private sector decision-makers with actionable insights to navigate an unpredictable future.

Using Foresight to Anticipate Emerging Critical Risks:
A Proposed Methodology

Summary

Outputs include actionable insights and “Risk-Worlds,” which are scenario-based models for stress-testing strategies and fostering a dynamic understanding of future risks.

The OECD’s proposed methodology offers a structured approach to identifying and managing emerging critical risks. The methodology emphasizes using strategic foresight to anticipate risks that lack historical precedent but have the potential for widespread disruption. Key steps include horizon scanning, exploration and reframing cycles, and risk characterization. The framework promotes multidisciplinary collaboration, systems thinking, and iterative processes to prepare organizations for complex, evolving challenges.

Key Points

1. Strategic Foresight Focus: The methodology centers on anticipating and preparing for risks that lack historical precedent, emphasizing the need to broaden perspectives on emerging threats.
2. Core Components: Key steps include horizon scanning for weak signals, exploration, and reframing cycles to understand interconnections, and risk characterization to evaluate vulnerabilities and potential impacts.
3. Multidisciplinary Approach: The framework prioritizes collaboration across fields, integrating insights from technology, behavioral sciences, and environmental studies.
4. Iterative Process: Emphasis is placed on continuously revisiting and updating risk assessments to account for evolving global contexts.
5. Outputs for Action: Deliverables include “Risk-Worlds,” which are scenario-based models designed to test strategies and foster proactive adaptation.

Analysis

This framework is a valuable addition to global risk management practices, providing tools to navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape

The OECD’s methodology represents a paradigm shift in risk management, moving from reactive strategies to proactive, foresight-driven approaches. Its emphasis on horizon scanning and multidisciplinary collaboration ensures a comprehensive view of risks, enabling institutions and companies to detect and address threats at their nascent stages. The use of Risk-Worlds introduces a dynamic element, allowing policymakers to stress-test strategies against a range of potential futures.

However, the approach also presents challenges, such as the reliance on subjective prioritization of signals and the need for substantial investment in training and resources. Successful implementation will depend on strong international cooperation and the willingness of public and private sector organizations to adopt iterative, systems-based thinking.

This framework is a valuable addition to global risk management practices, providing tools to navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape. By fostering adaptability and resilience, it prepares policymakers to better manage the cascading effects of emerging critical risks.

For the full OECD report, see OECD Working Papers on Public Governance: Using Foresight to Anticipate Emerging Critical Risks – Proposed Methodology

What Next?

By prioritizing these steps, your organization can lay the groundwork for more proactive, resilient approaches to managing emerging critical risks in an uncertain global landscape.

1. Implementation of the Methodology: Organizations should prioritize integrating the OECD’s foresight methodology into their existing risk management frameworks. This process involves establishing specialized teams within risk management units to pilot the methodology, aligning it with national priorities. Effective integration will require collaboration between public and private sectors to pool resources, expertise, and technologies. The immediate focus should be on implementing horizon scanning tools to identify weak signals of emerging risks, creating a foundation for broader application.
2. Strengthening Cross-Disciplinary Collaboration: Fostering partnerships across various disciplines is essential to uncover the full spectrum of risks and their potential impacts. Policymakers, technologists, behavioral scientists, and environmental experts should engage in joint workshops to refine the framework. Encouraging input from diverse stakeholders, such as civil society and academia, can ensure the framework reflects a comprehensive understanding of interconnected risks. Building networks for ongoing dialogue will also aid in continually updating the framework.
3. Iterative Framework Development: The foresight methodology should be treated as a living process that evolves with new insights and data. The public and private sectors must institutionalize periodic reviews of the methodology, incorporating lessons learned from its application. Regular updates to the framework will ensure it remains responsive to rapidly changing global dynamics. Iterative cycles of exploration and reframing will help uncover new interdependencies and emerging scenarios, making risk management strategies more adaptive.
4. Capacity Building and Training: A critical step is equipping government officials and risk managers with the skills to apply strategic foresight effectively. Training programs and workshops should be developed to familiarize key personnel with tools like futures wheels, scenario planning, and causal layered analysis. These efforts will strengthen the internal capacity to anticipate and address risks dynamically. Additionally, embedding foresight training into educational institutions can prepare the next generation of policymakers.

By prioritizing these steps, your organization can lay the groundwork for more proactive, resilient approaches to managing emerging critical risks in an uncertain global landscape.

Recommendations

By implementing these recommendations, governments and organizations can build more robust systems to anticipate and manage emerging critical risks, ensuring greater resilience in an era of uncertainty.

1. Adopt Horizon Scanning Tools: Governments and organizations should prioritize the adoption of advanced horizon scanning technologies to detect weak signals and nascent risks. This includes leveraging generative AI and unconventional data sources, such as patent filings and crowd forecasting, to capture emerging trends. These tools should be integrated into national risk assessment systems to provide a more granular view of potential threats. By proactively identifying areas of concern, policymakers can focus resources on high-priority risks and make informed decisions ahead of disruptions.
2. Foster Multidisciplinary Dialogue: Addressing complex and interconnected risks requires input from a wide range of disciplines. Policymakers should actively involve experts from fields such as behavioral sciences, environmental studies, technology, and social sciences in the risk assessment process. Collaborative platforms, workshops, and conferences can serve as avenues for generating diverse perspectives. This approach will not only enhance the depth of analysis but also ensure that risk management strategies are grounded in a holistic understanding of the issues at hand.
3. Utilize Risk-Worlds for Scenario Planning: Governments and organizations should employ “Risk-Worlds” to simulate various potential futures and test the resilience of their strategies. By exploring alternative scenarios through tools like futures wheels and cross-impact analysis, policymakers can better understand how risks might evolve under different conditions. This dynamic approach enables stakeholders to refine policies, stress-test existing frameworks, and develop more adaptive strategies to mitigate cascading risks effectively.
4. Enhance Knowledge Sharing and International Cooperation: The global nature of emerging critical risks necessitates coordinated responses across borders. Governments should invest in platforms and initiatives that facilitate the sharing of best practices, data, and methodologies related to risk management. International organizations, such as the OECD, can play a pivotal role in fostering dialogue and standardizing approaches to emerging risks. Strengthening these collaborative networks will enhance the collective capacity to address risks that transcend national boundaries.

By implementing these recommendations, governments and organizations can build more robust systems to anticipate and manage emerging critical risks, ensuring greater resilience in an era of uncertainty.

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