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Why? According to the WP, “More than 7 million Venezuelans — about a quarter of the population — have already fled Maduro’s authoritarian rule in the past decade. Of those who remain, more than 1 in 3 tell pollsters that if Maduro remains president after the July 28 vote, they’ll consider leaving the country themselves.” Simply put: a Maduro win makes the situation at the U.S. border a further fluid issue through the November U.S. election, as the Venezuelan political diaspora – in the event of a Maduro win – comes knocking on America’s door for political asylum status and entry. More concerning: the growing threat vector of the potential for Russian, Chinese, and North Korean “Kompromat” flooding the zone with misinformation tropes that leverage fear and violence also in the run-up to election day in the states – centering around hot-button immigration and political issues at the border – as well as accentuating the potentially violent response to a Maduro win or loss on the ground in Venezuela. The WP, WSJ, and NYT have all provided valuable coverage of the implications of the upcoming election in Venezuela and its potential impact here in the U.S., along with our OODA Network What’s Next? section with insights and analysis.
Deadly reprisals allegedly carried out by government agents and gang members spread across borders as Venezuelans flee the authoritarian rule of President Nicolás Maduro
In advance of Sunday’s presidential election, the Venezuelan government has stepped up arrests and conspiracy claims in the contest between Maduro and retired diplomat, Edmundo González. Pollsters say González could easily win in a fair election. That isn’t expected to happen, according to diplomats and Venezuela experts. They say Maduro and his lieutenants would likely face charges for drug trafficking and extrajudicial killings in Venezuela and abroad, an incentive to hold power. Maduro in a rally last week warned of civil war if he lost—“a blood bath,” he said.
Maduro, president since 2013, barred two top candidates from running against him and ordered dozens of political activists into custody. In a speech this year, he said he would root out his adversaries with “Bolivarian Fury,” a reference to Simón Bolívar, the nation’s 19th-century founding father.
Some U.S. oil executives and Wall Street creditors quietly embrace president; opponents say democracy is needed to restore rule of law
Eager to jump-start the oil industry, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro toured a crude- pumping facility on a recent day when he turned to a state television camera to make a candid sales pitch to American investors. “Your investment is welcome in Venezuela, so we can work together toward a different U.S.-Venezuela relationship,” said Maduro, visiting a Chevron plant that reopened last year. “We guarantee stability, legal security, peace, win-win relations.”
In private, some American oil executives and Wall Street creditors agree. During his 11 years in office, Maduro has overseen an economic collapse that hobbled a once-potent energy sector and prompted a quarter of the population to flee. But ahead of Sunday’s presidential election, he is selling himself as the pro-business candidate, even as diplomats and analysts say he can only win by rigging the vote as he did six years ago.
Some U.S. businessmen who have engaged in back-channel talks with Maduro over the past year—and lobbied the Biden administration to lift economic sanctions—say they favor “the devil you know” because they see the regime as a more stable option for investment. And they pragmatically presume he will remain in power, either by stealing votes from Edmundo González, a little-known retired Venezuelan diplomat who polls show would easily win the vote, or by canceling the election.
About a quarter of the population has already fled Nicolás Maduro’s rule. Of those who remain, 1 in 3 say they’ll consider leaving if he is not defeated.
The opposition candidate who is challenging Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has a simple pitch. Vote for us, Edmundo González says, and your loved ones can come home. But U.S. officials are wary of what might happen if Maduro is not defeated. More than 7 million Venezuelans — about a quarter of the population — have already fled Maduro’s authoritarian rule in the past decade. Of those who remain, more than 1 in 3 tell pollsters that if Maduro remains president after the July 28 vote, they’ll consider leaving the country themselves. The Venezuelan election coincides with the final stretch of the U.S. election campaign, in which a surge in illegal border crossings under President Biden and plans by former president Donald Trump for mass deportations have become central issues.
In a country where the authoritarian president is accused of rigging elections — disqualifying challengers, barring international observers, harassing opponents, menacing voters — their work could prove essential.
LA GUAIRA, Venezuela — In the sweltering patio of a private home, two dozen volunteers listened carefully as an organizer prepared them for the delicate, potentially dangerous job ahead. Intelligence agents of the socialist state circled the house. An outside wall bore pro-government graffiti identifying it as a meeting place for the opposition.
Venezuela was less than a week away from the most important election the country has seen in a decade, one that could compel President Nicolás Maduro to at least share power with the opposition. The volunteers were among the thousands of citizen testigos — witnesses — who will try on Sunday to protect a basic tenant of democracy: a fair vote. The job was simple: watching polling centers to ensure all rules are followed. But in a country where the authoritarian president is accused of rigging elections — disqualifying challengers, barring international observers, harassing opponents, menacing voters — their work could be essential.
Losing Hope, Venezuelans Vow to Leave Their Country if Maduro Wins
As many as one-third of Venezuelans would consider migrating if the country’s authoritarian leader is given another six years in power in an election set for July 28, one poll showed.
A young opposition activist planning to trek through seven countries and a perilous jungle to reach the United States. A journalist ready to abandon everything to build a new life abroad. A lawyer in her 60s, fearful that her last daughter is about to leave. For thousands of Venezuelans, the decision to remain or flee their homeland depends on a single date: July 28. On that day, the country will vote in a high-stakes presidential election. If the country’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, declares victory, they say they will go. If the opposition candidate wins, they will stay. “Everyone says the same thing,” said Leonela Colmenares, 28, the opposition activist. “If Maduro wins, they are leaving.”
Roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s population has already left, with almost eight million people living in other countries, according to the United Nations, forming one of the largest migration crises in the world. So far, Mr. Maduro has shown little interest in relinquishing power, no matter what the vote shows. This week at a campaign event, he warned that Venezuela would fall “into a blood bath, into a fratricidal civil war” if he didn’t win.
On July 28, President Nicolás Maduro will appear over and over again on Venezuela’s presidential ballot.
The design of the ballot is just one way Mr. Maduro may be trying to tip the scales in his favor. “We haven’t seen anything similar to this,” said Staffan Darnolf of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, a group outside Washington that advises more than 30 countries on electoral operations. The ballot’s layout, he added, seems to provide Mr. Maduro a clear upper hand.
“It is an advantage to be on the top part of a ballot because normally that’s what people are looking at,” he said. Mr. Maduro’s government has thrown up numerous obstacles to a free and fair vote. It has disqualified candidates, arrested opposition activists, and prevented millions of Venezuelans living abroad from registering to vote. To many government critics, the ballot’s layout is another measure by the authoritarian government to skew the vote in its favor even as surveys suggest overwhelming support for the opposition.
An OODA Loop News Brief update as of Tuesday, 7/30/24:
https://oodaloop.com/briefs/2024/07/29/venezuelas-autocrat-is-declared-winner-in-tainted-election/
We have the privilege of counting as OODA Network members two world-class subject matter experts on these topics. See:
While not an OODA Network member, CNN’s Zakaria recently produced a great situational awareness update on the U.S./Mexico relationship – it is worth a listen/look:
Tonight on @CNN @ 8pm ET & PT: In my new special report, “America’s Mess With Mexico,” I’ll take a close look at immigration, economics, drugs, and democracy in a country of huge but often overlooked importance to the US. pic.twitter.com/km8M6YiMxW
— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) June 23, 2024
We have tracked down the previously aired broadcast as a podcast at this link. You should be able to find the CNN broadcast version on demand via your local cable provider or the CNN streaming service.
We also frame the Venezuelan political diaspora in the context of the U.S./Mexico relationship, the regional transformation of globalization, counterterrorism, the future of North America, and border security:
As the coda to the March 2024 OODA Network Monthly Meeting, OODA Network Member John Sullivan shared with the network an overview of current threat vectors and strategic challenges at the border relative to the operational presence of various international crime syndicates in North America. He also shared his perspective on the primary topic of the monthly meeting: The Global and Domestic Impacts of the Exponential Pace of Technological Change. Find a summary of Johns’ invaluable insights here.
In this era of global polycrisis, leaders are also reacting to the major macro economic trend of the last thirty years – the fundamental driver of the tetonic shifts in geopolitics and deep inside the economies of nation-states – which is that the BRICs global share of GDP May Overtake the G7 by 2028. Further geopolitical players and regions of the global polycrisis (jagged transitions, strategies, binaries fractures, major developments, and crucial events) summarized here include: The Americas, The Northern Frontier of Mexico, The Arctic, and Africa .
For further OODA Loop News Briefs and Original Analysis on these countries and regions, see OODA Loop:
Mexico | Africa | The Americas | Brazil | The Arctic
The Global Polycrisis: The Middle East, China, The Indo-Pacific, Russia, Ukraine, and NATO: Polycrisis: A cluster of interdependent global risks create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts. The geopolitical players and regions of the global polycrisis (jagged transitiosn, strategies, binaries fractures, major developments, and crucial events) summarized here include: The Middle East, China and the Indo-Pacific, and Russia, Ukraine, and NATO.
Great power competition introduces new corporate risks, from supply chain disruptions to cyber threats. This competition extends to resources like food, water, and rare-earth elements, with heightened risks surrounding global computer chip supply.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief
Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence