Two climate crisis related developments are worth tracking as an indicator of what may be the new reality in this age of polycrisis.  We do not provide solutions but do mention mental frameworks important for leaders to master in finding solutions. 

EU fossil generation hits record low as demand falls

A fall in demand drives collapse in coal and gas in the first half of 2023, as solar pushes forward clean power growth.

As reported by EMBER:

“The first half of 2023 saw a collapse in EU fossil generation, leading to the lowest output on record. Wind and solar continued their growth, with solar generation increasing by 13% and wind by 5%. Hydro and nuclear are recovering from their historic lows in 2022, though their long term outlook is uncertain.

The fossil fall was predominantly driven by a significant drop in electricity demand, amid persistently high gas and power prices, a reduction in industrial output and emergency measures over winter. To accommodate demand recovery at the same time as ensuring the energy transition remains on track, the EU must accelerate the deployment of clean power, with particular focus on addressing the barriers to renewables integration.”

Highlights from the EMBER report – EU fossil generation hitsrecord low as demand falls – include:

• Fossil fuel generation collapsed by 17% to lowest on record
• Electricity demand fell by 5% in the first half of 2023
• Solar continues growth, as clean power recovered and grew moderately
• Seventeen EU countries had record renewable generation from January to June

Texas Teeters on Edge of Blackouts as Demand Squeezes Grid

Last week, Bloomberg Green reported that “Texas declared its first power emergency since a deadly winter storm two years ago and came close to rolling blackouts as soaring temperatures roasted the second-largest US state.  The declaration of a so-called Level 2 emergency…came in response to shrinking supplies of available power and meant the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s grid operator, had to draw on reserves while pushing consumers to curb usage.  Conditions deteriorated so quickly…that the grid operator skipped calling emergency level 1. A level 2 emergency means power reserves have dropped to critical levels and allows the operator to call on more supplies to prop up the grid. It’s unclear what led to ERCOT call a second-tier emergency.”

What Next? 

As our readership knows, we concern ourselves with decisionmaking and risk awareness (and how foresight strategy and the OODA Loop itself inform decisionmaking and mitigate risk).   There are a variety of societal and economic reasons for why we find ourselves in this climate crisis – and cognitive biases have most definitely figured prominently over the last few decades.  We encourage our readership to return to what has now become a seminal OODAcast with Expert Practitioner of Analysis Carmen Medina on Mental Models and Cognitive Bias – which is the source of this “deep dive” on the implications of cognitive biases for your business or organization: The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”.  

We also encourage you to revisit the OODA Almanac 2023: Jagged Transitions – which prices in this polycrisis environment in which we are currently operating and is “meant to invoke the challenges inherent in the adoption of disruptive technologies while still entrenched in low-entropy old systems and in the face of systemic global community threats and the risks of personal displacement.” The Almanac raises questions you and your team should be asking…sooner rather than later. 

For our most recreport of recent developments in the climate crisis and further discussion of mental models and cognitive biases, go to :  Responding to the Climate Crisis: The Worst Case Scenario is Not the Least Probable