Late last year, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released the Drone Proliferation Dataset, offering a comprehensive overview of military-grade drone transfers from 1995 to September 2023. This dataset highlights a significant shift in global drone dynamics, with emerging players like Turkey, China, and Iran challenging the longstanding dominance of the U.S. and Israel in the drone market.

Why This Matters

The Drone Proliferation Dataset underscores a pivotal transformation in global military capabilities: As drones become more accessible, their influence on warfare, geopolitical strategies, and international norms intensifies.

Key Points

• Shift in Drone Market Leadership: Turkey has surpassed China as the leading exporter of military drones, notably with its Bayraktar TB2 models.
• Increased Drone Transfers to Africa: From 2020 to 2023, Africa saw a surge in drone acquisitions, with 51 out of 84 total transfers occurring in this period.
• Impact of MTCR on U.S. Influence: The U.S.’s adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has limited its ability to shape drone proliferation, allowing competitors like China and Turkey to fill the void.
• Emergence of Loitering Munitions: The market for loitering munitions, or “kamikaze drones,” is expanding rapidly, indicating a shift towards more disposable and cost-effective drone warfare.

What Next?

• Policy Reassessment: The U.S. may need to revisit its drone export policies to maintain strategic influence and support allies.
• Monitoring Emerging Players: Continued observation of countries like Turkey, China, and Iran is essential to understand their growing roles in drone proliferation.
• Integration into Defense Strategies: Nations must consider how to integrate drones into their military doctrines and prepare for potential counter-drone measures.